Kalonzo should just join Ruto; it's odd for him to be opposition

The leader of Wiper party should join President William Ruto and Raila Odinga so that Kenyans have an opposition leader they can rely on.

Kalonzo Musyoka’s pattern of politics does not allow him to be an effective opposition leader. He will most likely end up supporting the government “for the sake of the nation”.

One thing Kalonzo needs to address is his attempt to undo what he did in 2007 when he supposedly betrayed Raila by splitting from the ODM, contesting alone, and later backing Mwai Kibaki in what he called ‘kupita kati kati yao’. It was seen as revenge against the Pentagon formation after Raila went against their agreement to support him (Kalonzo) as the 2007 presidential candidate.

The 2007 elections results show clearly that if Kalonzo remained in ODM, the votes he garnered would have made Raila president and the violence that followed would have been stopped. But why blame only Kalonzo for the debacle? Unfortunately, fate has it that someone had to carry the blame and that was Kalonzo.

Kalonzo's attempt to launder his political past through Raila has cost him time, effort, and resources.

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Recent events have further damaged his ability to stand firm as an opposition leader. Long before the 2022 election campaigns heated up, Kalonzo declared that he would be the most foolish person to support Raila’s presidential bid for the third time. Yet, in 2021, he backed Raila’s presidency and explained that he would support him 50 times for the sake of the nation. It was not a surprise.

In early 2023, Kalonzo had an about-turn regarding his 2022 support for Raila’s presidency. He stated that the "fool who supported Raila for the third time in 2022 is now wiser".

Since then, he has been trying to create an alternative opposition to fill the gap, especially in 2024 when Raila and his party joined Ruto’s government.

As we speak, the Wiper party leader has joined disgruntled UDA leaders from Central and is purportedly being fronted as an alternative to stand against Ruto in 2027.

The big question is, if Kalonzo can break his own pledge, what can he do with what he promises Kenyans? The second question is whether the politicians from Central will stand by him until the end of the 2027 elections. Will they help him to win?

Another concern Kenyans should have with Kalonzo leading them as opposition leader is his close political relationship with Ruto.

Politically, Kalonzo is closer to Ruto than Raila is. When Raila and other young Turks were fighting for the so-called second liberation in the 1990s, Kalonzo and Ruto were insiders in the government. This political foundation is well etched in their political DNA, allowing them to bond more easily with each other than with any other top politician.

This is not true for the Kamba nation, where he is the political kingpin. The Kamba nation has been in opposition since independence.

Politically, the Kamba nation is another Luo Nyanza in the lower eastern part of Kenya. The only difference is that the Luo are combative while the Kamba are less aggressive in political expression.

The pull towards opposition by the Kamba nation has always forced Kalonzo, post-2007-2012 regime, to gravitate towards opposition politics, although it is not in his political DNA.

Lastly, if Kalonzo manages to break through as an opposition leader, the outfit will be like Uhuru’s 2002-2007 opposition. The Wiper party leader does not know how to oppose—his strength lies in being in government.

Kalonzo’s strength is derived from his demeanor as a born-again politician. He is true to his ‘born-again’ persona, which allows him to navigate through turbulent political waters.

However, politically speaking, this is a significant weakness. Politics requires betrayal, breaking promises, and rebuilding connections with enemies—politics does not go to church, neither is it sacramental.

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication