The numerical edge in the Ruto, Raila pact

The last time President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga were on the same coalition, they mounted a formidable challenge to the late former President Mwai Kibaki’s re-election bid.

In controversial results announced by former Electoral Commission of Kenya chairperson Samuel Kivuitu, now deceased, Raila missed out on the presidency by a whisker, trailing Kibaki by slightly over 200,000 votes.

The outcome of the said polls remains in doubt, given that Kivuitu admitted massive rigging had taken place and that he did not know who won that election.

On Friday, Dr Ruto and Raila re-united, promising deeper ties if a memorandum of understanding between them is fully implemented. The two were the main rivals in the 2022 presidential election, and their coming together promises to shake up the political landscape.

Ruto and Raila boast of immense following across significant sections of the country. However, the Head of State is perceived to be losing ground in Mount Kenya, a region that contributed the most to his vote basket in the last polls.

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In 2022, Ruto secured more than 1.6 million votes from the former Central Province, beating Raila at slightly over 400,000 votes. But Mt Kenya stretches beyond Central, incorporating the Eastern counties of Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu, as well as Laikipia and Nakuru, both in the former Rift Valley province.

Although considered a part of the Mt Kenya ‘diaspora’, Nakuru is significantly cosmopolitan. It shows in the more than 200,000 votes Raila secured from the region against Ruto’s 455,864.

If the diaspora figures are to be incorporated, then Mt Kenya gifted Ruto close to three million votes, giving Raila 800,000. Completely losing these votes could take away Ruto’s three million head start.

Ruto’s popularity in Mt Kenya is yet to be tested but the hostility that has greeted his allies in tours of the region potentially implies that the “Mountain is gone,” as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua insists whenever he takes to a political podium.

Perhaps aware of this fact, the Head of State seems keen to diversify his base and has camped in the former Nyanza, Western, Coast and North Eastern provinces, where he hopes to secure enough numbers to plug his losses from a potential loss of Mt Kenya.

The President boasts of a 1.6 million-strong base in Rift Valley, going by the numbers in the last election. He is most popular in the Rift Valley counties of Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, West Pokot, Kericho and Bomet, which handed him the mentioned tally, against the former prime minister’s more than 200,000.

The larger Rift Valley, which comprises counties considered part of Mt Kenya’s diaspora, granted the president 2.6 million votes against his rival’s 1.1 million.

In Raila, Ruto has a proven mobiliser of votes. In 2022, Raila secured more than 6.9 million votes, trailing the president’s 7.1 million.

Raila’s consistent showing in elections must entice the President, who hopes to gain Raila’s traditional voting blocs. Raila brings to the table some 1.5 million votes from his Nyanza bastion of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori.

If the pair keep their partnership going until 2027, it is likely that Ruto will inherit most of Raila’s votes in Nyanza, lightening the burden of plugging the deficit inflicted by Mt Kenya. 

It is unclear whether the President can count on Raila to deliver Kisii and Nyamira, especially amid talk that former Chief Justice David Maraga and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i could contest the presidency.

Besides Nyanza, Raila brings on board the former Coast province, which has traditionally backed the former premier. If Raila were to transfer the over 600,000 votes he secured in 2022, then Ruto would be close to hitting a million votes from the region, assuming he retains the more than 300,000 tally he got in the region.

However, some dynamics could hamper this plan, such as the region's demographics. Counties like Taita Taveta and Mombasa are known to have a significant Kamba population.

There is Western, too, where Raila traditionally commands support. In the last election, 1.3 million voters in Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia voted in the presidential election. If Trans Nzoia, a region considered part of the wider Western is considered, then this tally shoots to 1.6 million.

Raila secured a cumulative 976,333 in the five counties, beating Ruto’s 630,282. Western could prove a challenge to the Head of State, courtesy of an anti-Ruto onslaught driven by several politicians, including former Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Members of Parliament Peter Salasya (Mumias East) and Caleb Amisi (Saboti), and former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala.

Equally critical is Nairobi County, which boasts the most votes among all counties. In the last election, Raila beat Ruto with more than 200,000 votes in Kenya’s capital when he secured more than 700,000 against the President’s half a million. Whether or not such votes can be transferred is doubtful, given that Nairobi is highly cosmopolitan.

Ruto has seemed keen to win the former North Eastern province counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera, which produced less than 400,000 votes. In addition to Marsabit and Isiolo, the three counties gave Ruto less than 200,000 votes, handing Raila some 350,000.

"It is definite," Dr Timothy Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University, said about whether Ruto inherits Raila's votes after the pact they signed on Friday.

"No one should even question that. Raila has a solid backyard, not only in Nyanza but across the country," Dr Onduru added.

However, Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches history and international relations at the United States International University, disagreed.

"It is not automatic. Raila does not command the support he once enjoyed even in Nyanza. The general atmosphere in the country is not what it used to be," said Prof Munene.

He argued that Ruto's influence also depended on whether or not Raila contests the presidency in 2027.

"The assumption now is that Raila will support Ruto but what is coming out of the Orange Democratic Movement is that they will field a presidential candidate, who can be no one else but Raila," added Prof Munene.

Although mobilization in Kenya’s politics has often been along ethnic lines, the Generation Z-led revolt against tax hikes last year could shift dynamics, meaning Ruto will have to sweat it out if he hopes for re-election.

In 2022, there were some 8.8 million voters aged between 18 and 34, making such a potential bloc hard to ignore. An analysis of census data by the Kenya Bureau of Statistics shows that nearly 18 million potential voters in the next election will be between the stated age bracket, meaning they could easily influence an election if they are rallied on one side.

The Head of State is already unpopular among this cohort as evidenced in last year’s nationwide protests that brought his government to its knees. On social media, the once “leaderless” movement is scouting for a challenger to Ruto, with Maraga, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and businessman Jimi Wanjigi among those favoured for the role. 

Dr Onduru argued the youth would be divided, with Prof Munene stating the young population could influence the next polls if "they got their votes."