Can the UDA, ODM marriage secure Ruto a second term?

The country’s political scene changed significantly last Friday as President William Ruto and de facto Leader of Opposition Raila Odinga signed a cooperation pact.

The deal, fashioned as a partnership between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), is seen as a boost to Ruto’s presidency after months of turmoil.

It came at a time when the President’s popularity had been dwindling due to unpopular policies like the new tax regime that sparked massive youth-led protests in June last year and left at least 60 people dead, according to human rights groups.

The countrywide protests plunged the Ruto administration into a crisis, forcing the President to seek Raila’s help in forming a “broad-based government.”

Some members of Raila’s ODM party secured key positions in Ruto’s Cabinet that also incorporated some of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s allies.

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The pact between Ruto and Raila was formalised on Friday, with the former political-arch-rivals vowing to work together to address a myriad of challenges facing Kenyans, including corruption and the ballooning public debts.

But what does this arrangement mean to Kenyans?

Political pundits have expressed various opinions about the pact, with some arguing that the deal could be a political death sentence or a masterstroke for Ruto.

According to veteran politician Koigi Wa Wamwere, the partnership is an attempt by Ruto to “salvage his collapsing regime.”

“Nothing seems to work in this government. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, the promises that Ruto made to wananchi in the run up to last general election are not being fulfilled,” observed Koigi who became famous for opposing both Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel Moi regimes.

While Ruto and Raila have insisted that their deal is not a full coalition, Koigi views it as “a political strategy to enable Ruto win a second term in 2027.”

“It is clear for Ruto that if Raila remained in the opposition, he could cause him untold political suffering, and destroy his chance for a second term,” Koigi argues.

The former political detainee said that the two leaders appear to have embarked on the 2027 campaign with their strategy being to balkanize the country along ethnic lines under the guise of promoting inclusivity.

Raila, who has unsuccessfully run for the presidency five times, remarked during the signing of the deal at KICC that the pact “is to help ease the prevailing tension in the country.”

“We agree to embark on steps to realign the country’s economic, social and political priorities to address the youth agenda,” Raila said.

On his part, Ruto said the team-up with Raila “is a path to the promised land where freedom and opportunity are guaranteed for all.”

However, Andrew Nyabuto, a political commentator, says Ruto was desperate for a new partner after falling out with his deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

“Gachagua helped Ruto in his 2022 election by securing a huge voting bloc in Mt Kenya region. Ruto does not have the numbers that can make him win a second term. He has to look up to Raila,” observed Nyabuto.

He added that the deal with Raila has now left Kenyans without a proper opposition party.

“That agreement has completely compromised the oversight role in and outside Parliament.  Kenyans are now left on their own,” he said.

It is not the first time Raila has joined forces with a sitting government.

In 2018, he struck a truce with then President Uhuru Kenyatta in what became known as the “handshake” following a contentious election.

Ruto, who was Deputy President at the time, criticised the deal throughout Kenyatta’s second term.

Former Molo MP Njenja Mungai is challenging Kenyans to take time and understand the country’s politics, which he said were driven by individuals whose broad agenda was to attain power for personal interest.

Mungai says like-minded leaders had the constitutional right to take their political direction and “those opposed to them should organise and position themselves as an alternative leadership for the country.”

The former fiery lawmaker says it was a political paradox for Kenyans to complain that Raila had abandoned them when he signed a pact with President Ruto while they have not been electing him to office in his presidential bids.

Mungai, who is the Jubilee Party Council of Elders’ chairman, says that the political pact had the effect of isolating the Mt Kenya region which appears to have abandoned President Ruto.

He says that although leaders were free to form political alliances, it would be wrong to balkanize the country along ethnic lines for the pursuit of political power.

“Mt Kenya region should stop lamenting and should instead organize itself as a region around its interests and the interests of other parts of the country they share common destiny and aspirations with,” Mungai added.

Joseph Omondi, a governance expert, said the political class was bound to unite when their interests were threatened and called on Kenyans to have a conversation on the change they want.

“The perception by Kenyans that their salvation lies on the political class and leaders who are driven by pursuit of their interests is self-defeating. The people need to mobilise themselves into a mass movement and liberate themselves,” Mr Omondi said.

Omondi said the Ruto-Raila political axis and the Kalonzo-Gachagua political one have no potential of propelling the country to greater heights of socio-economic prosperity as they are led by leaders persuing selfish interests.

“As of now those in the opposition are united after they were edged out of political power, while Ruto and Raila are uniting to preserve their privileges the country needs a total moment of rebirth like the 2002 Narc moment which reversed the trend of decay,” Omondi added.

The governance expert said the 10 point agenda could be implemented by the Kenyan Kwanza administration without seeking the support of ODM brigade.

“The establishment of the political formation will provide an opportunity for Kenyans to audit the performance of the two leaders,” Omondi said.