From cheers to jeers: How Mt Kenya crumbled on Ruto's feet

In late February 2022, President William Ruto, then Deputy President, teased a crowd of his supporters about whether they would let politicians “in Nairobi hotels” decide how they would vote.

“Mûrî andû a kûbangwo?” Dr Ruto posed in Kikuyu, which loosely translates to: “Are you easily controlled?”

The response was an emphatic No, with the masses chanting Ruto’s campaign slogan Hatupangwingwi (We cannot be controlled). At the time, Ruto was guilty of the crime he was accusing his opponents of committing.

There he was, dictating his supporters’ very thinking. From one side of his mouth, he would enumerate the successes of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime, hoping to ride on the previous administration’s legacy in which he served as Deputy President.

From the other, he bad-mouthed his predecessor, accusing him of delivering nothing for the Mt Kenya region. With his words, he could dictate what he wanted his audience to believe. If he had wanted to control the masses, he had been successful, as they bought the narrative and abandoned Uhuru and his choice for successor, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, for Ruto.

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That is the kind of power Ruto wielded in Mt Kenya. He could decide who became the governor and, indeed, most politicians from the region who challenged him were swept away by the “yellow wave” of his United Democratic Alliance party.

The Head of State returns to the region this week in an attempt to stem the fading of his yellow. The perception is that Ruto is growing unpopular in Mt Kenya, perhaps too unpopular for redemption. At the height of his popularity in Mt Kenya, he could show up anywhere in the region unannounced. And he would draw joyful crowds. They sang joyful praises of the man referred to by many as njamba (warrior) for standing with Uhuru.

In the past week, the President’s allies have been preparing the ground for a man who needed not to go through anyone to access the people. Ruto recently met them at the State House in Nairobi to plan the campaign tour.

Spooked by the hostility his allies have faced in Mt Kenya, Ruto has largely kept off the region. In the few instances he has been there, he did not stay longer than he needed to. Last January, hostile mourners shouted down former Public Service Cabinet Secretary and Attorney General Justin Muturi as he tried to read Ruto’s condolence message to former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti, who had lost his son.

How is it that the fortunes changed so fast for a man who was in hearts of Mt Kenya’s residents and needed more by politicians seeking election than he needed them?  Ruto’s predicament was aptly predicted by Italian diplomat Niccolò Machiavelli in his 16th Century treatise, ‘The Prince’.

“But the difficulties occur in a new principality. And firstly, if it be not entirely new, but is, as it were, a member of a state which, taken collectively, may be called composite, the changes arise chiefly from an inherent difficulty which there is in all new principalities; for men change their rulers willingly, hoping to better themselves, and this hope induces them to take up arms against him who rules: wherein they are deceived, because they afterwards find by experience they have gone from bad to worse,” Machiavelli wrote.

“This follows also on another natural and common necessity, which always causes a new prince to burden those who have submitted to him with his soldiery and with infinite other hardships which he must put upon his new acquisition,” he further counselled.

“In this way you have enemies in all those whom you have injured in seizing that principality, and you are not able to keep those friends who put you there because of your not being able to satisfy them in the way they expected, and you cannot take strong measures against them, feeling bound to them. For, although one may be very strong in armed forces, yet in entering a province one has always need of the goodwill of the natives.”

Swelling with the ambition that guided him into politics, a forward-looking Ruto chose to support Uhuru’s presidential bid in 2013. Ruto had previously backed his predecessor in the flopped 2002 bid, and they parted ways ahead of the 2007 election.

It made sense that they would team up in the transitional election five years later. Both men faced charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court, based in the Hague, Netherlands and hoped they would defeat the indictment if they rose to high office.

They sold their joint “persecution” to their supporters and won sympathies — and won votes. Nearly five years later, in 2017, Ruto doubled down and secured his boss’s early endorsement.

“Yangu kumi, ya Ruto kumi,” Uhuru declared throughout the 2017 campaign, affirming that he would back Ruto for two terms as President once he was done with his own.

By supporting Uhuru, Ruto had endeared himself to Mt Kenya’s voters. And Ruto would frequent the region, spending most of his campaign time (nearly a third in 2021 and 2022) in the region, enough to wrestle it from Uhuru when the former Head of State endorsed Raila as his preferred successor.

“Uhuru lost Mt Kenya because people read betrayal to Ruto, who had seemed loyal to a fault. Natural justice dictated that he should not throw Ruto into the pit to back Raila. Even if Uhuru was one of their own, the people could not allow him to betray a person who had his back,” Mukuruwe-ini MP John Kaguchia observed.

Indeed, as Machiavelli had argued, the masses had taken up arms against the Muthamaki, installing a leader who sold lofty promises of the revival of critical industries like agriculture. The evidence was in the 2.9 million  votes he secured from Mt Kenya, a conglomeration of counties that formed the defunct Central Province and some from Eastern and Rift Valley, often referred to as ‘Mt Kenya diaspora. ’

He was on a roller-coaster that only went up until he was not. The difficulties in keeping the Mt Kenya principality would arise from Gachagua’s ambitions. The senior-most politician from the region, the former Deputy President made initial attempts to stamp his authority in his bastion.

Gachagua was largely unsuccessful for months as Mt Kenya politicians, initially opposed to his selection as Ruto’s running mate, still rejected him. Earlier in Ruto’s presidency, some, like Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah, had seemed to embrace him.

Soon, lawmakers would have to pick sides in a supremacy battle between Ruto and Gachagua. The majority chose the President and would endorse Gachagua’s impeachment last October. The Mt Kenya principality would now revolt against Ruto.

But the fault lines had emerged months earlier during a youth-led revolt against tax hikes. Mt Kenya was sufficiently represented in the protests that morphed into the Ruto-Must-Go wave that refuses to die down. The disquiet can be traced to March last year when Mt Kenya farmers opposed a proposed avocado tax that Ruto had to make a U-turn on. Such were the burdens Machiavelli ostensibly warned about, which, perhaps, had Mt Kenya pulling away.

“He made it clear that he was the alpha and omega, and even when he was doing things wrong, he did not want to be told he was. He showed Mt Kenya that he was not interested in them besides getting their votes,” argued Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations.

“It is not just the Mountain that is turning away from him (Ruto) but the whole country, and it is because of his bad policies. Several sectors, such as health and education, are collapsing. The cost of living is high, and when questions about who is responsible for the mess come up, the responses go back to Ruto,” Prof Munene added.

“As bad as things are, we have seen Ruto’s allies acquire so much wealth within a short time as others suffer.”

Arguably, the deal-breaker was Gachagua’s impeachment. During the 2022 campaign period, Gachagua was by all standards a friend of Ruto’s, one he has been unable to keep.

“This is the warrior,” the former DP would flatter Ruto in his native Kikuyu when they campaigned in Mt Kenya. “His name is Ruto. Isn’t he the one you want?”

As expected, the masses responded in the affirmative. In Gachagua, Ruto had a man who could do the dirty work for him — who could say things against Uhuru he did not have the guts to say. In “seizing” the Mt Kenya principality, Ruto would “injure” Uhuru, earning an enemy he has since tried to win over, meeting the latter at his Ichaweri home last December.

The Head of State’s overtures to his former boss seem futile, given Uhuru’s sustained criticism of the government

In January, the former President asked the youths to stand up for their rights. Recently, he asked the Kenya Kwanza administration to be more responsive to the people.

Contrary to Machiavelli’s counsel, Ruto took the strongest measures against Gachagua, a former friend. However, he has retained other allies in Mt Kenya, perhaps hopeful that he could flip his dwindling fortunes. Does he have the goodwill of the natives?

“The dynamics of politics keep changing,” said Molo MP Kimani Kuria. “Mt Kenya region has been fed with propaganda and misinformation that there has not been any project going to the region, that our people have been fired and that appointments are going to other regions. But Ruto’s tour is a fact-finding mission, which will assure the region that it made a wise investment in voting for Ruto.”

 Kaguchia argued that all hope was lost when the President got rid of Gachagua.

“He badly miscalculated and suffers the same fate as the former President, only that his punishment will be more severe given he betrayed a person from the Mountain.

‘‘People have revolted against him and will never turn back no matter how many trips he makes to the region,” said Kaguchia.

Prof Munene argued that it would be difficult for Ruto to redeem himself in Mt Kenya, “but he can try.”

“The President’s quarrel with Gachagua is not the worst issue – his bad policies are. He can try to complete the projects that had been started, and perhaps people would see the evidence that things are working and see things differently.’’