Why Raila must listen to Ruto, Museveni on his fight for AU job

Spare a thought for Raila Odinga, as he embarks on his African Union odyssey. Our people say here in Emanyulia that when your visitor kicks your dog in your presence, he is not talking to the dog. He talks to you.  

President Yoweri Museveni has said caustic things about Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. He says Babu is a clueless character around Odinga, the ODM leader. He is among naive individuals hostile to Uganda’s NRM government. For this, the Ugandan supremo is unhappy. You are wrong if you think President Museveni was addressing Babu Owino. No, he was talking to the owner of the dog, Mr Odinga, asking him to chain his dog.

You see, President Museveni was in Nairobi on Tuesday, in solidarity with President William Ruto’s choice of Odinga as Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) chair. The election of the fifth AUC Chief Executive is set for February next year, in Addis. And Odinga is running against three other candidates.

He needs every vote he could grab. It’s a stiff fight against Mahmoud Youssouf of Djibouti. Also in the race are Anil Gayan of Mauritius, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. 

The latter two are immaterial. History is unlikely to remember them beyond having also run, if they do not retreat before February. The man to watch is Youssouf. He has all the four aces. Besides, he doesn’t have to play them close to the chest.

Traditionally, 29 Francophone countries vote as a bloc within the AU. Djibouti belongs here. Observers recall that three out of four previous AUC chairs have been Francophones from Mali, Gabon and Chad. Their solidarity is best captured in the Malian motto, “un peuple, un but, une foi,” which is to say, “One people, one goal, one faith.”  

They have done it three times before. They look set to do it again. Their faith is at once in what Paris says, and for some in Islam, too. Put together with seven other countries that are at once Islamic and Arabic speaking, Youssouf veritably has thing wrapped up.

He would say in Odinga’s mother tongue, “Gin, wase kao (We have taken this thing).” Youssouf only needs 34 votes, yet he seems to be assured of 36, already. 

That is why President Ruto and his candidate, Odinga, need to go into overdrive. Accordingly, President Museveni, and President Samia Suluhu of Tanzania came to Nairobi to symbolise regional support for the Kenyan project. But President Museveni also sent coded messages to Kenya.

He said he was a consumer of intelligence. And intelligence shows some clueless people around Odinga were messing up with Uganda. One of them, metaphorically, Babu Owino. 

That Owino has cavorted with Uganda’s Bobby Wine, reigning nemesis of President Museveni, is no secret. He has called Museveni a dictator. He has said other unattractive things about the Ugandan leader and his country. You do not need intelligence services to tell you about Babu and Uganda. Intelligence, rather, comes in when you want to know the owner of the dog.

Is it a self-sponsored dog, or has someone entered it into the ring? Even as Odinga banks on East Africa as his beachhead, Museveni has fired a warning shot. He has basically said, “So, you want our vote and support? But, see how you treat us. Yes, we are here. But we may, or may not, vote for you.”  

That is the coded message Odinga needs to deeply reflect about, even as he briefly vacates visible political activity in Kenya. How sincere are his sponsors, and those bidding him farewell from Nairobi? Are they setting him up for failure and ridicule?

This time next year, will they still sing his praise, or will they call him a perennial loser? Will President Ruto be cosying about with him, or will he be crowing about how he tried to help him, but found him not helpable? Will he describe Odinga as a recurrent election loser? 

As he ponders these things, Odinga must remember Kenya’s 2027 rat race has begun. President Ruto has taken off at a breakneck pace. He is cutting across the country with abandon and zeal. And he sits pretty.

If Odinga becomes AUC chairperson, Ruto takes the credit. He claims entitlement to Odinga’s political base. If Odinga loses, he says, “Well, you saw for yourselves. I did all I could. This man is jinxed.” And for Odinga it’s the perfect dilemma. In this, my hunches tell me, he’s been set up for failure and mockery. 

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser