How Gen Z can refine their strategy to win this battle for Kenya's future

If anyone ever doubted that a day in politics is a long time, this past week proved them wrong. Two mutually exclusive events confirm this.

First, President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race scheduled for later this year on November 5.

Amazingly, this single act led to the Democrats’ best fundraising day ever, raising over $30 million (Sh3.4 billion).

Pundits suggest that this decision alone may have turned the tide against the Republicans, potentially throwing former President Donald Trump’s campaign strategy into disarray.

As things stand, Americans may be setting a new benchmark for democracy. If Vice President Kamala Harris prevails in November, she will not only shatter the glass ceiling cracked by Hillary Clinton but also advance the race and gender inclusivity struggle in the United States of America.

The second event is President William Ruto’s maneuvering at home to contain a wave of change from the youthful generation that threatened his grip on power.

While it’s clear that something significant has shifted in the minds of voters across the country, it’s also true that by bringing key opposition figures into his Cabinet, he may have revitalised his administration.

He has shrugged off the Gen-Z revolutionary wave with its core principles of being tribeless, leaderless, and formless. Surprisingly, the political tone seems to have shifted overnight.

For instance, the president could not address any political gathering just three weeks ago, but he was received with jubilation in Tharaka Nithi and Mombasa on Thursday.

Any rational observer might wonder how this is possible when the Gen-Z wave swept across the country so forcefully. The question on many minds now is: what’s next for the Gen-Zs? Did they suffer only for the political elites to share the spoils?

The answer to this question is not obvious. Three weeks ago, I shared evidence that societies do not change their ways easily, even when it’s for their benefit.

Notice how the president’s harshest critics have lined up to take their slots in the Cabinet? Also note the immediate jostling within political parties to fill the soon-to-be-vacant slots left by the Cabinet nominees?

Revolutionary wave

The events of this week demonstrate that many things could go wrong for the revolutionary wave if young people do not restructure and reorganise their modus operandi. Winston Churchill once said, “Politics is almost as exciting as war, and quite as dangerous. In war, you can only be killed once, but in politics many times”.

Based on this observation, it is clear that both exciting and dangerous days lie ahead for the revolution. The challenge is how to operate within the law while achieving the good governance and accountability that young people are demanding. Economists have attempted to explain this paradox. Here, I share two studies on the matter.

Saad Gulzar and Muhammad Yasir Khan, in an article published in the Journal of Review of Economic Studies by Oxford Academic, explore the relationship between motivations for political candidacy in democracies and performance once in office. The scholars acknowledge there exists much empirical evidence on improving democracies through tailored incentives for elected politicians. But there is less focus on the supply side for politicians who can improve democratic performance outcomes once elected.

Political office

It is undeniable that whoever runs for political office affects policy, independent of and prior to the rules under which politicians operate once elected. But running for political office is often associated with enhancing one’s status and influence.

A Gallup national survey of 1,529 respondents in 2022 posed the statement: “People enter politics to gain influence and status”. Of the respondents, 81 per cent agreed.

This perception influences who self-selects into politics, leading to a preponderance of ‘bad’ politicians across democracies, according to the study.

A separate study published by Cambridge University Press on April 22 this year discusses the implications of closed-list proportional representation. In this system, a party’s electoral list determines the order in which legislative seats are allocated to candidates. Unfortunately, candidates vary in their abilities when weighed between competence and incentives. Thus, parties must make trade-offs between these two qualities.

If a party prioritises competence, it increases the chances that capable individuals will be elected, enhancing the likelihood of better performance in office. Conversely, if party lists are created based on incentives for candidates, the parties are less likely to place the best candidates at the top of the list and on the ballot.

Reflecting on our current situation, do these findings sound familiar? Can we trace their footprints in the unholy alliance between Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the Orange Democratic Movement?

Though making for strange bedfellows, the Gen-Zs should remember that when they were children there was a wave of pyramid schemes and later a rush into quail farming that engulfed the country, similar to their revolutionary wave.

In our politics, such waves are not uniquely peculiar. Youthful waves swept former President Uhuru Kenyatta into power in 2013 and President Ruto in August 2022. The difference with the current wave is that it is formed against the existing socio-political establishment.

It has threatened not only the existence of the men who control our politics but also the structures that appropriate public resources and economic rents to themselves at the expense of the poor masses. Consequently, these political figures have regrouped to self-preserve and possibly extinguish their common enemy: the liberated youthful voters.

So what will it take for the youth to prevail against this new order? Three things will prove decisive for the final outcome.

One, the youth must now realise their enemy is not President Ruto per se, but an organised criminal enterprise deeply entrenched in the country’s political and economic architecture. When necessary, no political boundary is too far for its shadowy operatives to preserve the status quo.

Focus on true enemy

This week’s events show that Gen-Z power has been temporarily forestalled. If not careful, it will be vanquished in the three years leading up to the elections. The streets are no longer the battlefield for the revolutionaries. It is time to refine a singular agenda, focus on the true enemy, and move formlessly.

Second, it is crucial to understand the tools of war and the battlefield of Kenya’s politics. It would be foolish to underestimate the power of money and the travails of betrayal. The revolutionaries must prove themselves as truly priceless and remain absolutely loyal to the cause and their duty to the nation.

Finally, the thorny question of being leaderless is no longer tenable. However, the person capable of driving the change you desire for your generation is not a current holder of any elected office or someone who has served a corrupt regime. You have to understand that the party apparatus and appointing structures have locked out many good people from power. Find this individual, nurture them in your ways, and sacrifice everything to install them as your leader!