Magic number in Ruto-Gachagua dogfight

The clouds are gathering, promising a heavy downpour this coming week. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, staring at the beginning of the end of his tenure as the country’s second in command, could be the victim of the ensuing landslide.

All factors constant, the vote on Gachagua’s impeachment promises to be a walkover for President William Ruto’s allies at the National Assembly.

The Head of State has successfully isolated his deputy from the latter’s Mount Kenya backyard, where lawmakers are baying for Gachagua’s blood. Ruto has also secured the support of former Prime Minister’s allies in the bicameral Parliament.

Saboti lawmaker Caleb Amisi has already declared that he will support the impeachment, as has Narok Senator Ledama ole Kina, hinting at the position likely to be taken by members of Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement.

Ruto can also bank on the support of his allies from Rift Valley, as well as Members of Parliament from Kenya Kwanza’s constituent parties.

The President’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) boasts 143 MPs, with 10 of them from the Mt Kenya region showing affinity to the Deputy President. ODM follows with 86 lawmakers and Gachagua could bag some of their votes.

Assuming that 130 UDA MPs and 75 ODM lawmakers endorse the impeachment motion, the total pushing Gachagua’s ouster will be 205. The motion will need 28 more MPs to sail through.

These numbers are easily filled up by the 33 other lawmakers from Kenya Kwanza constituent parties. That means that Gachagua’s goose could be cooked even if he bags the 30 Jubilee lawmakers and the 26 Wiper MPs.

The Sunday Standard has established that Gachagua’s impeachment motion is already with National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who chairs the House Business Committee that will meet on Monday to discuss the business for Tuesday’s sitting. It is expected that the motion could be tabled on Tuesday, even as the mover remains unknown.

“We think it is a foregone conclusion because the DP has asked for it. At the end of the day, it will come,” North Imenti MP Rahim Dawood said yesterday during a rally in Tharaka Nithi.

Reports, which we could not independently verify, suggest that more than 300 MPs have appended their signatures to the motion, which only requires 115 MPs to be moved in Parliament.

Article 145 of the Constitution prescribes the procedure of removing a president or deputy president from office through impeachment. Such a motion must get the support of 230 MPs, two-thirds of the total total 345 in the National Assembly.

“If a motion... is supported by at least two-thirds of all the members of the National Assembly, the Speaker shall inform the Speaker of the Senate of that resolution within two days,” Article 145 (2) of the Constitution states.

“Within seven days after receiving notice of a resolution from the Speaker of the National Assembly, the Speaker of the Senate shall convene a meeting of the Senate to hear charges,” the Constitution says on the impeachment procedure.

The Senate may hear the matter at the plenary or through the special committee. If it goes the committee route, it shall investigate and determine the impeachment motion within 10 days.

If any of the charges are proven, the Senate plenary will vote on the impeachment, which will require the endorsement of 44 senators, two-thirds of the total 67.

Article 150 of the Constitution dictates the grounds for impeaching a deputy president as gross violation of the Constitution, suspicion for committing a crime and gross misconduct. 

It is unclear what the grounds are, but The Sunday Standard has learnt that the DP could face charges of corruption and could be in trouble over his utterances, which include an attack on National Intelligence Service Director General Noordin Haji. Similarly, his assault on Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja could be fronted as a violation of the constitutional principle of separation of powers.

The numbers to sink Gachagua are likely to come, as Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a critic of the planned ouster, admitted yesterday.

“They must prove that Gachagua breached the Constitution. The court will overturn the impeachment because they cannot prove any breach and Ruto will stay with a DP he can’t talk to,” said Maanzo.

“Gachagua has not breached any law because he only spoke of Kenya Kwanza being a shareholding entity, which is true if you look at the President’s appointments, which favours two main communities,” he added, calling the impeachment a witch-hunt that could destabilise the nation.

Anti-Gachagua lawmakers also noted that the planned motion was not a bluff.

 “As MPs from Tharaka Nithi, we have all signed the impeachment motion and I believe the MPs from Meru, Embu, Nyeri and others have done it too. It is not only us who support (the impeachment),”  said Tharaka MP Gitonga Murugara.

“It is coming because we have witnessed transgressions that cannot go on. We are fully supporting President Ruto,” he added. 

“He (Gachagua) should wait for his time. In the Assembly, we have decided that because he wants to become president this early, we let him go and campaign for votes and we look for another DP,” Chuka Igambangómbe MP Patrick Munene said.

In Mombasa, UDA acting Secretary General Hassan Omar claimed 300 MPs have appended their signatures in support of an impeachment motion against the DP.

Omar said the UDA administration stood for leaders who promoted national unity and not advancing the interests of a single region.

“If the MPs impeach Gachagua, we shall proceed to eject him from the party over his conduct,” said Omar.

[Additional reporting by Joackim Bwana and Patrick Beja]