What next after Trump's win

President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in on January 20, 2025, at the United States Capitol in Washington DC.

According to the 20th Amendment to the American Constitution, the term of each elected President of the United States begins at noon on January 20 of the year following the election. 

The president-elect becomes the president immediately after being sworn in. The new president typically moves into the White House after the ceremony. 

Why Kenyans seem to be excited about a Trump presidency

Kenyans are not hiding their excitement over Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Top and renowned Kenyan lawyer Donald Kipkorir threw a lavish party at his home, and from the photos shared on his X timeline, he spared nothing at it.

 At the Kenyan parliament, Member of Parliament for Mwingi West Charles Nguna could be seen punching in the air in a celebratory mood. When he caught the eye of the speaker, he defended his actions, saying he couldn’t hold his joy back. 

One would wonder why an election miles away would attract so much attention in Kenya. 

The US is not just any country; it is the most powerful country, which incidentally has the highest Kenyan diaspora population. For these reasons and others, all US elections have always attracted interest in Kenya and Africa at large.

Kenya's relations with the US

However, the current excitement seems to be informed more by the politics of the day and the simmering dissatisfaction with the William Ruto presidency. Ruto has presented himself as a darling of the West through various initiatives and policies.

The most prominent one was his decision to provide the largest contingent to the UN support mission in Haiti. 

President William Ruto also went into history books as the first African President to be honored with a state visit to the US in over 2 decades. A move that foreign relations experts state was historical

It is out of that historic visit that Kenya was designated as the first non-NATO ally in Sub-Saharan Africa. All these were pointers that Ruto was continuing to find favor with the Western superpower. 

"It should be noted that to President Ruto's detractors, these were signs and symptoms of a sellout. Even so, it is a wait-and-see situation about what the Trump regime will mean to this cozy relationship that had developed between Kenya and the US," Amos Mokaya, a foreign relations expert asserted.

On the surface, it is pretty obvious that moving from a Democratic presidency to a Republican presidency means a great departure in policy and style. Outgoing US President Joe Biden was deliberate on reclaiming Kenya from looking towards the East.

The Meg Whitman debate

Biden's choice of Meg Whitman as his ambassador to Kenya was not by fluke but by design. A multibillionaire and a retired CEO of multibillion-dollar companies such as eBay, Meg’s task was to reconnect Kenya to the US both as a source and a market for American companies. 

This she did with great dedication.

Meg’s aggressiveness may have favored the US and its companies but has had an opposite effect on how the US is viewed in Kenya. 

The US was seen as meddling too much in Kenya, and at one time, during a devolution event that she attended in Eldoret, ODM leader Raila Odinga told her this to her face. 

Raila is among the many leaders and Kenyans who feel that the US had a hand in denying him the presidency during the 2022 elections. Meg has been blamed for not upholding the human rights credentials that the US is known for.

 She has been accused of being slow to condemn police brutality against young demonstrators in July and thus seen as an enabler of the mass abductions and killings.

She is likely to be the first victim of the Trump presidency as far as Kenya is concerned. 

China's influence in Africa

However, the agenda to contain China’s influence in Kenya and Africa at large is likely to be sustained through other strategies.

During his first term presidency, Trump's policy in Africa was premised on three main principles: prosperity, through “advancing U.S. trade and commercial ties with nations across the region to benefit both the United States and Africa;” security, through “countering the threat from radical Islamic terrorism and violent conflict." and stability through foreign aid, while ensuring that U.S. taxpayer dollars for aid are used efficiently.

Trump labeled China’s strategies for gaining influence in Africa as ‘predatory economics’.

Republican politics aside, Donald Trump has been consistent on his ‘America First’ clarion call.

Every US president has tried to leave a mark on Africa during his term. 

In recent years, Bill Clinton is most remembered for his African Opportunities for Africa project that opened the US market for a number of African countries. George W. Bush is remembered for the PEPFAR—President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief.

Barrack Obama started a number of initiatives, including the Young Leaders for Africa Initiative (YALI). Trump can only be remembered for his noninvolvement and keeping off. He is likely to continue with this stance on US-Africa policy. 

There are a few things that Kenyans are particularly concerned about. One is the push for the recognition of same-sex marriages.

LGBTQ activists had an easier time with the Biden administration than they are likely to have had under the Trump administration.

Biden - Trump transition

Most importantly, they will want to see how Trump reacts to concessions and agreements signed between Kenya under the Biden administration and how those will affect the US involvement in Kenyan politics. 

It is not likely that Trump will roll back all the agreements signed under the Biden administration. It is also worth noting that not all agreements had been completed and some were yet to be signed. 

There are limited clues on what he will keep and what he will not, but more assuredly, he will continue to pursue any agreement that favors the US economy without having to meddle in local politics. 

Trump is not known to chase personal relations with African leaders.