Ruto, Raila and Gen-Z: This is my prediction

In the wake of Gen-Z protests, many Kenya Kwanza leaders have been circling the wagons around President William Samoei Ruto. To them, the chief hustler is a victim of circumstances.

Their defence is that Kenya’s debt woes started with Uhuru Kenyatta. There are many other wild theories on the protests, including mentions of faceless people unhappy with Ruto’s recent visit to the US.

However, these claims haven’t pacified Gen-Zs. Disillusioned by socio-economic challenges and a political landscape dominated by the old guard, they’ve become lethal in piling pressure. Besides the withdrawal of the Finance Bill, the Cabinet has now been fired.

Ugly events of June 25, including desecration of Parliament, confirm in totality that the Gen-Zs are at a breaking point. Lack of solutions to their anxieties led to extreme actions. It mirrors global trends where younger voters are increasingly dissatisfied with aging leaders.

More and more, it seems possible and even probable that age will be a major leadership factor in Kenya. We will be like America where voters shudder with rage at the ages of President Joe Biden and his nemesis Donald Trump. Ahead of the November elections, the US is, in fact, facing uncertainty.

It’s clear that an ominous fate awaits our seasoned kingpins. On Tuesday when President Ruto signed the IEBC Bill, Raila Odinga was left with an egg in the face. His public support for dialogue, or is it handshake, with the Gen-Zs, while striking a cautious union with Ruto, attracted the fury of supporters.

Ruto critics wanted Raila to leave the president to his own devises. But for the ODM chief, it was damn if he did and damn if he didn’t. Taking sides with Ruto angered Gen-Zs who had told Agwambo to stay away. But also, castigating the president would have inflamed cynicism. Raila instantly became Johannes or JP in 'Mine Boy' by Peter Abrahams – a tormenter and a defender rolled into one.

I have two predictions. First, emergence of a Gen-Z political party seems inevitable. The youth movement will crystallise into a force in 2027. The metamorphosis will follow the Orange script. You recall the anti-draft constitution wave in 2005 that gave rise to ‘No’ side symbolised by an Orange. It birthed the ODM party. It will be same script with different players.

The leaderless nature of Gen-Zs is temporary, with front-liners like Ms Shakira Wafula poised to step into the spotlight with a formal outfit. Their tribe-less identity is a unifying factor needed to challenge the status quo. More Gen-Zs will register to vote. But even if they form a party, timing is everything.

Second, Ruto and Raila will team up in 2027. They have a lot in common than the Gen-Zs. The decision by the Azimio leader to watch the president’s back suggests imminent political harmony. The Gen-Z revolution would typically have been Raila’s glory moment against the president given their bitter history.

It doesn’t matter how Raila’s quest for the AU Commission job pans out. Even if he doesn’t get it and doesn’t contest the presidency in 2027, he will decide who wins. It will be interesting to see if a Gen-Z alliance would beat a Ruto-Raila camp at the ballot. If the ODM chief lands the AU post, it will be more reason to stick with Ruto like glue. 

Truth be told, Gen-Zs and their would-be leaders should know that the entrenched political structures may prove too resilient to overcome in the short term. While their energy and technological savvy are undeniable, they will be cutting a Mugumo tree using a razor blade. They need good planning and resources. 

The Kenyan youngsters will have to wait until 2032 to gain good ground. But by that time, they will have lost the willpower. Nonetheless, their wave will have reshaped the political landscape forever. ‘Omena’ is also fish.

-The writer is a communications practitioner. X @markoloo