How Russia's invasion of Ukraine is distressing East Africa's food security

Since early 2023, East Africa has been grappling with a severe food crisis, significantly worsened by the violent disruption of the global food supply due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations has warned that this situation could escalate into a 'catastrophe,' particularly for countries like Kenya, which rely heavily on predictable and reliable imports of essential commodities to manage their fragile food security. This already precarious situation is further exacerbated by drought and extreme weather events.

Before Russia's invasion, Ukraine was a major supplier, accounting for approximately 10% of the global trade in wheat, corn, and barley. The uninterrupted flow of these exports to countries with acute food needs was vital for maintaining global food security. However, the war has disrupted trade and distorted prices, replacing predictability with volatility. While other factors also contribute to inflation and uncertainty, Russia's actions have significantly exacerbated these issues.

For Kenya, a net food importer, reliable and affordable imports are essential. Over the past year, many Kenyans have experienced sharp increases in the cost of living, with rising prices for food, fuel, and electricity. The most vulnerable populations have been hit hardest: by mid-2022, over 6 million Kenyans were malnourished, with a million on the brink of starvation.

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine reduced grain supplies to Africa and drove up prices. Although the global economy eventually adapted to the initial shock, food and fuel prices in Kenya remain unusually high due to factors such as the depreciation of the Kenyan shilling and adverse climate conditions. Critically, a significant part of the world's food supply system remains disrupted, undermining food security and raising the costs of cross-border trade.

Efforts to stabilise prices and supplies have been made. In July 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was established, allowing Ukraine to safely export grain. However, Russia abruptly withdrew from the agreement, claiming that Western countries had not done enough to ease sanctions on Russian exports. This move was seen as a betrayal by African countries. Dr Abraham Korir SingOei, a senior official in Kenya's Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, described through a public statement on social media platform X that Russia's exit from the initiative as a "stab in the back" for global food security, disproportionately affecting countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought.

Despite the collapse of the initiative, Ukraine has continued to export agricultural produce through its own 'maritime corridor,' successfully suppressing Russian seaborne attacks. Notably, Ukraine achieved a significant victory by sinking The Moskva, Russia’s warship named after its capital and the pride of its Black Sea fleet. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) hailed Moskva’s loss as a "major victory for Ukraine" and suggested it likely undermined Russian morale. Since then, over 500 ships have exported more than 12 million tons of agricultural produce. Additionally, Kenya and Ukraine are collaborating on food security initiatives. In September 2023, Kenyan President William Ruto and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to establish a grain hub in the Port of Mombasa to address food shortages in East Africa.

Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of grain, including sunflower oil, barley, maize, and wheat. After Russia's illegal invasion in February 2022, the Russian navy blockaded Ukraine's Black Sea ports, trapping 20 million tonnes of grain intended for export. If President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plans to establish a grain hub in the Port of Mombasa come to fruition, it would significantly affect food costs in Kenya and the wider East Africa, potentially reducing the overall cost of living in the region. In contrast, Russia's efforts to contribute to food security have been more about public relations than real action. At the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit, President Vladimir Putin promised to provide 25-50,000 tonnes of grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea. However, there is little evidence of this aid materializing, and the promised grain is only a tiny fraction of what is needed.

Ukraine's commitment to maintaining its maritime corridor and continuing agricultural exports has brought some fragile stability to global trading, alleviating pressure on East African markets. However, this stability is precarious, relying on Ukraine's ability to export through the Black Sea, which remains a conflict zone. Restoring true food security to Kenya and other food-stressed African states will require multiple global interventions.

The food crisis in East Africa, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, underscores the region's vulnerability to global disruptions. With Ukraine previously providing a substantial portion of the world's grain supply, the invasion has severely impacted food security, driving up prices and creating widespread instability. Kenya, heavily reliant on food imports, has felt these effects acutely, with millions facing malnutrition and the brink of starvation.

To mitigate these challenges, Kenya and other African nations must diversify their food sources and strengthen their supply chains. The proposed grain hub in the Port of Mombasa, a collaboration between Kenya and Ukraine, represents a significant step towards achieving this goal. By ensuring a more reliable flow of essential commodities, this initiative could reduce food costs and improve living standards across East Africa. Kenyan politicians and leaders across East Africa must urgently advocate for the establishment of the grain hub in Mombasa. This strategic move is not just about addressing immediate food shortages but also about securing the region's long-term food security and economic stability. By championing this initiative, they can help shield their countries from the volatility of global markets and the adverse impacts of geopolitical conflicts.

Moreover, it is imperative for African nations to reassess their trade and diplomatic relationships with Russia. Given the evidence of Russia's destabilizing influence and its self-serving interventions, African countries should seek more reliable and supportive partners. Strengthening ties with nations committed to mutual development and stability will better serve Africa's future, promoting sustainable growth and resilience in the face of global challenges.

In conclusion, turning away from Russia's unreliable promises and embracing strategic initiatives like the grain hub in Mombasa can pave the way for a more secure and prosperous East Africa. It is time for decisive action to protect the region's food security and ensure a stable, sustainable future for all its citizens.