Egypt could spark regional conflict over Ethiopia's dam

 

Egypt’s stance against Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has escalated, raising the possibility of military conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa. Egypt has openly aligned itself with Somalia and covertly with Eritrea in opposition to Ethiopia. The GERD is crucial to Ethiopia, which contributes at least 85 per cent of the Nile’s waters. This makes the dam vital for its economic development. Egypt’s reliance on outdated agreements—the 1929 treaty and the 1959 accord—does not reflect the current geopolitical realities or the needs of upstream countries such as Ethiopia. The old treaties, combined with recent shifts in regional alliances and rising tensions, have created conditions that could lead to a destabilising conflict over Nile waters.

From July 2014 to August 2022, South Sudan and Uganda were Egypt's regional allies, supporting Cairo's strategy. However, Egypt faced challenges in implementing its strategy against Ethiopia in South Sudan due to significant local opposition, particularly from the Nuer community, which has historical ties to Ethiopia.

Recently, Somalia and Eritrea, once unlikely allies, have shifted their stances due to changing geopolitical dynamics. Their alignment with Egypt is driven by two key factors. First, Somaliland—a self-declared autonomous region within Somalia that lacks international recognition—signed an agreement with Ethiopia this year. This deal allows Ethiopia access to ports on the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The Somali government, which considers Somaliland part of its territory, views the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia as a threat to its sovereignty. Consequently, Somalia has threatened to use all available measures, including potential military action, to prevent Ethiopia from utilising these strategic seaports via Somaliland. This shift has significantly influenced Somalia’s alignment with Egypt, as both seek to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence.

Second, the Fano militia, an armed ethnic nationalist group from Ethiopia’s Amhara region, is dissatisfied with the November 2022 peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Following the peace deal, the Fano militia feels that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed abandoned his reform agenda and believes that the TPLF should not be allowed to exist as a political organisation. As a result, the Fano militia established its main base in Eritrea, where it has received and continues to receive military training and support. Eritrea, likewise, is dissatisfied with Ethiopia’s decision to sign a peace accord with the TPLF.

Cairo views these developments as an opportunity to destabilise Ethiopia. It has begun supplying weapons and military equipment to Somalia and is also assisting the Fano militia through the Eritrean government. This strategy aims to destabilise Ethiopia further and maintain control over the Nile waters.

It is worth noting that Ethiopia has taken precautionary measures by suspending Ethiopian Airlines flights to Eritrea. This move is in response to Eritrea’s plan to block these flights by September 30. Additionally, Ethiopian Airlines has revealed that the Eritrean government has frozen its bank account in Eritrea, making it impossible for the airline to operate there. Egypt’s ongoing military strategy against the GERD could potentially lead to a regional war. The possibility of conflict arises because countries like Eritrea and Somalia support Egypt, while other regional actors, including some upstream nations not explicitly mentioned here, oppose Egypt’s insistence on maintaining its monopoly over the Nile waters.

Egypt’s strategy to block the construction of the GERD is not new. The plan to prevent Ethiopia from building the dam began soon after Ethiopia announced its construction on the Blue Nile in 2011. However, the conflict between the two nations intensified after Dr Abiy became Ethiopian PM in April 2018. Cairo should stop pressuring Addis Ababa and start working on a deal that accommodates the interests of all parties involved. Egypt’s insistence on adhering to the 95-year-old Nile waters treaty is likely to escalate regional tensions. A more reasonable approach would be for Egypt to acknowledge that the colonial-era 1929 agreement no longer effectively governs the use of Nile waters by countries like Ethiopia. Using proxy militias or countries like Somalia and Eritrea to pursue anti-Ethiopia interests is not an effective way to resolve the disagreement. A mutually beneficial agreement between Cairo and Addis Ababa is the only reasonable way to resolve the conflict.

Mr Chak is an analyst and critical writer