Kenya should pray for Harris but also prepare for Trump win in US polls

On November 5, 2024, Americans will go to the polls to elect a new president and members of Congress. The outcome of the elections, especially at the presidential level is expected to have significant implications for relations between the US and other countries, including Kenya.

There are several reasons why Kenya’s leadership and foreign policy establishment, in particular, should show interest in the US elections.

First, notwithstanding the debate as to the current state of polarity in the international system, it would be hard to dispute the fact that the US remains the only country in the world with the combination of diplomatic, economic, military and cultural resources necessary to influence events anywhere, if not most of the regions in the world.

As a super power, the US possesses immense leverage over other countries, especially the less powerful like Kenya that may be critical to its economic and security interests.
Second, owing to Kenya’s geopolitical significance and its steady pro-western stance since the Cold War era, the US has over the years forged strategic relations and partnerships with it since the country became independent in 1963.

Kenya remains one of few sub-Saharan countries that have enjoyed military and security assistance from the US, especially since the early 1980s when the two countries signed a military agreement which effectively ingrained Kenya as a key beneficiary of the US Military Assistance Programme (MAP) which includes supply of equipment and training assistance.

US has also partnered with Kenyan security sector in counter-terrorism and efforts to eliminate drug trafficking, money laundering and corruption. Of immediate interest are the several aid and assistance packages promised to Kenya by President Biden in May this year.

Could Trump, who believes in 'America First' with his foreign policy retreat from Africa cancel all these should he return to the White House? Trump could also terminate US support for the Kenyan contingent in Haiti. More at stake is the military aid Kenya expects after being offered the Major Non-NATO Member Ally (MNNMA) status by Washington during President William Ruto’s state visit in May, 2024. The status would open doors for military assistance in the form of equipment, training, and more importantly, the establishment of military hardware stores.

It would be safe to expect Harris, who has committed to continue Biden’s foreign policy in broader terms, not to repudiate the MNNA status granted to Kenya.
Similarly, the fate of the US-sponsored Kenyan mission to Haiti could hang in the balance should Trump return to the White House. 

Additionally, Kenya is currently facing an economic crisis fueled mainly by runaway debt. The government has turned to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans. So far, and like before, Kenya has been successful in its requests for aid. The IMF, in particular, has extended the country generous budget support since 2022. It is obvious that the good rapport President Ruto has cultivated with the Biden administration since 2022 when he became president has been critical in the generosity extended to Kenya by the two lenders. As a major shareholder in the two institutions, US patronage and endorsement is crucial for loan applicants. Continued support for Kenya by the IMF and the World Bank could as well depend on the post-election administration in Washington. Trump could withdraw this patronage. Harris, on the other hand, may decide to continue nudging the two institutions.

Another area of interest for Kenya as November 5 draws closer is the yet to be concluded negotiations that resumed in 2022 on bilateral trade and investment agreements. This includes the renewal of the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), under whose framework Kenyan goods have been entering the US market duty-free.
In his current campaigns, Trump has reiterated his belief in mercantilist policies, even promising to expand tariffs on almost all foreign imports.
For Harris, even though her position on tariffs remains unclear, she may not want to undo Biden’s promise to give Kenya preferential treatment through AGOA by allowing Kenya to export goods duty free to the US.

Another issue that should interest the Ruto administration is each candidate’s views on immigration. This is because Kenya has a sizeable population living in the US, estimated to be slightly over 150,000. The Kenyan diaspora in the US comprises students and working immigrants. The immigrants have been a major source of remittances that now rival other sectors of Kenyan economy as top contributors to the country’s foreign reserves. Both Harris and Trump are promising immigration reforms.

Harris has emphasised the positive contributions immigrants have made to the economic development of the US. Indeed, in her campaigns, she has called America an “immigrant nation”. She has promised not to “deport” illegal immigrants but to legalise their stay and to ensure they become citizens. Trump, on his part has promised “the largest domestic deportation in US’ history.”

What then should Kenya do to avoid any negative backlash from the outcomes of the forthcoming US elections? First, Kenya could engage the services of some of the influential lobby groups in the US. The lobby groups should be as bipartisan as possible.

Second, through lobbies or our embassy in Washington, the foreign policy establishment should be engaging congressmen and women, especially ranking members of the House and Senate who have a track record of interest in Kenyan or African Affairs.

Third, the government should try to firm up any agreements reached with the IMF and the World Bank so that they are cushioned from interference from any quarter.
Fourth, government officials should not make uncoordinated public comments on the US elections.

Fifth, government responses to international crises that might occur between now and the election day should reflect neutrality and non-alignment which are principles of our foreign policy. Official statements on major international issues should not antagonise either of the two camps in the elections.