UDA fights expose Ruto knack for combat politics

In October 2023, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua declared that him and his boss President William Ruto were joined at the hip and dismissed reports of a possible split.

Fast forward to June 2024, the rift between the president and his deputy in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is widening. 

As Ruto marks close to two years in office, the vicious wars in his UDA point to a house standing on a shaky political ground, contrary to the picture of a solid foundation that was presented to the public.  

The running promise from Ruto and Gachagua to end the "politics of witch hunt and weaponisation of the police against individuals who hold divergent political views" seems to have been hot air and they seem to be doing exactly that. The duo spared no efforts in criticising then-president Uhuru Kenyatta and the Jubilee administration for the working arrangement with ODM leader Raila Odinga after the March 2018 handshake.

Today, pundits agree that the emerging rift in UDA mirrors Ruto's political career which has been characterised by controversy despite always emerging victorious amidst the turmoil. 

As ODM deputy leader where his peer was Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Ruto, in 2008, was at the centre of the divisions that threatened to tear apart the party. By the end of 2008, it was clear that he was fishing for a new political outfit. He set eyes on General (Rtd) John Koech's United Democratic Movement (UDM). Protracted differences, however, caused him to abandon the move and form the United Republican Party.

That was followed by a search for new partners ahead of the 2013 general election and he entered into a deal with Uhuru's The National Alliance (TNA) Party in 2012, which later gave birth to the Jubilee coalition. The two promised a new era citing the Biblical Jubilee narrative- setting of the slaves free and pardoning of debtors. The utopian kind of relationship lasted for 6 years, a record in a country that is a graveyard of political unions. 

It was just a matter of time before political waves hit the Jubilee House. And the common denominator emerging to be the deputy party leader, Ruto. As usual, he stayed at the centre of the divisions.

Give it to him, Ruto possesses a knack of breaking away with a sizeable chunk of followers, as happened during the ODM split in 2009. Johnstone Muthama's UDA was ensnared into becoming the new vehicle but the central figure was Ruto.

Now in power, one would have thought that matters would cool down and there would be less drama.

Political pundits however opine that the wrangles in UDA are a function of intense subterranean political forces underneath

In his book, Things Falls Apart, celebrated author, the late Chinua Achebe, depicts what happens in the struggle for power among leaders near the president. These salient weaknesses always lead to a breakdown of associations. 

Achebe says that, because of internal weaknesses within the native structure and the divided nature of the Igbo society, the community of Umuofia was unable to withstand the tidal wave of foreign religion, commerce, technology and government, leading to an anarchic world of destruction. 

Achebe, in a nutshell, says that things fell apart as the centre could no longer hold. And that caused the traditional Umuofian world to fall apart. 

Nakuru-based political analyst Andrew Nyabuto argues that just like in the Umuofian community, things are falling apart in UDA as the leader’s jostle for power and disquiet grows in the party’s support bases due to mounting economic challenges. 

Nyabuto says the rapidly changing political landscape and economic situation, coupled with the complexity of running the government, was exerting immense pressure on President Ruto who “unfortunately has continued with his abrasive and one-man style of leadership.” 

Kimani Wa Kimani, who served as an advisor of youth affairs in the former Nakuru Governor Kinuthia Mbugua’s administration said:

“Typically, what is now driving Ruto and his cabal of leaders is lust for power, prestige, status and authority and this is the undoing of UDA and the Ruto administration.” 

Kimani observed that Ruto, who ascended to political power by appealing to the desires and prejudices of the ordinary people, was now finding it difficult to maintain their support as his team engages in leadership wrangles.  

He said the unfortunate thing is that “Ruto has closed his eyes and ears to the plight of Kenyans who have been complaining about punitive policies being imposed on them by his administration.” 

“When you look at Ruto today, he is the complete opposite of what he was during the election time. He is doing all the bad things he accused Uhuru Kenyatta of doing. We have seen him secure expensive loans from the IMF without any visible development,” Kimani said. 

Political analysts describe Ruto as “a poster boy of demagoguery, political deceit and trickery as none of his major promises have been fulfilled yet he has put the country in a campaign mood through his numerous political rallies and the manipulation of MPs to support his unpopular policies.” 

Kimani likened President Ruto to Narcissus, the beautiful boy in Greek mythology who became self-conceited and eventually fell in love with his reflection in a pool of water and ended up committing suicide. 

“President Ruto, believes he is the best and that is why he keeps reminding Kenyans that he is the president and the commander in chief of the armed forces and that he was given the sword. Even when Kenyans are expressing anger over repressive policies, Ruto ignores their plight and moves forward. This will eventually be his undoing,” Kimani said. 

Nyabuto argues that, “the centrifugal forces in UDA are slowly altering its structural arrangement and weakening its political base as leaders close to President Ruto attempt to re-align themselves after the 2022 general elections. The failure to deliver on its campaign promises has left party supporters disillusioned.” 

“The two factors are rapidly pushing UDA on the edge and it is just a matter of time before the party becomes a shell, a pale shadow of the formidable political machine it was during the 2022 elections. It is obvious that President Ruto is using his cronies in the party to fight Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to weaken him politically,” he said. 

Nyabuto said the war of words between Gachagua and his team on one side against the government faction comprising Transport Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, and MPs Oscar Sudi and Mwangi Kiunjuri on the other side, depicts a party that is entrenched in deep political divisions. 

Pundits argue that majority of those who elected President Ruto have lost trust in his leadership as he appears to have reneged on his promise to uplift the lives of the hustler nation and was instead coming up with policies that negatively impact on the economic wellbeing of mwananchi. 

Nyabuto observed that the Head of State since assuming office, appears to have descended from the high moral pedestal he had placed himself during campaign time “and was now doing the same things he was accusing former President Uhuru Kenyatta of.” 

Former Nakuru Town MP David Manyara says Ruto told Kenyans that he would not subject his deputy to the humiliation he went through under President Kenyatta but “is now doing the same thing.” 

Manyara said Ruto has realised that Gachagua has lost ground in Mt Kenya region where the people are upset with Kenya Kwanza government's punitive policies and that is why he was using his proxies to undermine him and weaken him ahead of the next elections. 

“Dr Ruto is hoping he will have an opportunity to re-arrange his house ahead of the 2027 elections if he manages to weaken Gachagua through the likes of Kimani Ichung’wa, Ndindi Nyoro, Mwangi Kiunjuri and others as he knows he has lost ground in Mt Kenya region,” Manyara said. 

Cleopas Isiaho, a consultant on labour issues who campaigned for the Kenya Kwanza government said:

“Kenyans will soon see a weakened UDA due to tectonic forces in Mt Kenya region which solidly supported Ruto and where people feel disappointed with his administration.The tectonic forces in Mt Kenya region are also sending ripples in Western Kenya region where Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula are under siege as residents feel they have not benefited from the Kenya Kwanza administration,” Isiaho said. 

Isiaho says Ruto had become arrogant and insensitive to the plight of hustlers who he lobbied to support him as his economic policies were further impoverishing them. 

“Ruto used to tell the people that Uhuru Kenyatta administration was insensitive to their plight but he is now worse than his predecessor on the economic front. Ruto's hand is visible when the likes of Oscar Sudi, Kipchumba Murkomen and Farouk Kibet fight Gachagua,” he said.