Broad-based government litmus test for Ruto and Raila

President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga are seeking to reap benefits from their new marriage in the so-called broad-based government.

Ruto is now resting easy knowing he has somehow managed to share the baggage and the tough task of raising money to meet the budget will be shouldered by a Cabinet Secretary from ODM.

He will no longer shoulder blame alone and so the jubilation happening in ODM could be short-lived given the enormity of the task that lies ahead for the party’s nominees to Cabinet, especially John Mbadi who is set to join the National Treasury.

With the Finance Bill 2024 rejected, Mbadi is expected to revise the budget to enable government finance the recurrent and development budget and Ruto could therefore not have been more than happy to offload that task to his new partners in government.

“Mbadi has spoken loudly against the increase of taxes, but it is going to be quite difficult for him to raise money and grow the economy given the heavy debt the country is paying,” says political analyst Martin Andati.

The President having resolved to form a broad-based government with ODM as a willing partner, it is expected that Raila’s supporters will not grumble should the expected magic of turning around the economy and ending corruption not happen.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University thinks ODM may be playing the worst monkey business with the public so far by pushing the narrative that its members who joined the government did so in their own personal capacities and they wish them well.

He argues that the wording suggests that the top cream of party leadership could not have joined government without Raila’s blessings, while he continues campaigning for his candidacy for African Union leadership.

“It is the highest level of deception, which if allowed to succeed, then ODM will remain on paper the official opposition and that will enable them appoint parliamentary leadership and take committee positions while also enjoying everything that comes from being part of government,” says Naituli.

Andati believes the opposition leader wants to have his cake and eat it by being both in the opposition and government. Raila and his team that is headed to government could also benefit from  jobs, tenders and taking development projects to his strongholds.

However, the challenge the ODM leader has is that he has not moved with his entire political base at a time when the hostility against the government is at the highest level.

The timing is, therefore, also not very good because people are seeing it as an opportunistic move with a tinge of dishonesty that could have led to the double speaking from the opposition leader in recent weeks, including several about turns on the need for dialogue.

Analysts think Raila is not coming out openly to declare his support for Ruto because he knows that if he does, people will see him as a sellout although the anger out there already suggests he has lost significant support.

That may not matter much, because he is planning to exit Kenyan politics, but it has also been suggested in political circles that he could be appointed Prime Minister if he fails to clinch the African Union Commission chairmanship.

It has also been argued that because of the bromance between Ruto and Raila, then ODM cannot support Gen Z, because they no longer trust the Orange party leader and so the alternative could be joining the President Ruto to fight them ruthlessly.

Raila will also find it difficult dealing with the young restless protestors who are now receiving the support of other opposition leaders who declined to join President Ruto’s broad based coalition.

The move by some ODM leaders to join government, has also seen the emergence of a new alliance bringing together Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala, his ODM counterpart Edwin Sifuna and several MPs from western who met in Nairobi on Thursday to chart the way forward for the region.

The leaders organised a meeting in Kakamega to bring together grassroots leaders from Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia to show the region political direction.

The move has infuriated some leaders from the region, including DAP-K deputy party leader Ayub Savula who dismissed the Kakamega meeting slated for today and described the leaders as political brokers. “Malala is bitter because former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya was appointed to the Cabinet and he was left out. They are also claiming he was given a small ministry,but we can negotiate for a better one when he is already inside,” says Savula.

He dismissed Malala as a one-term senator and Natembeya as a governor who is serving his first term, saying only experienced politicians like himself and others who have served for three terms or more in Parliament should speak for the community.

“Malala will lose his Secretary General position in UDA because he is playing double politics,” said Savula.

Young politicians led by Sifuna have also cautioned the political class against taking advantage of the Gen Z protests.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino expressed displeasure with ODM MPs joining Cabinet and declared himself as the new opposition leader.

The MP is angling for positions in the Orange party that will from next week probably not have two vice chairmen, party chairman, Minority Whip and the party leader should Raila win the AU position. 

Politicians who fought for change in the second liberation like Mukhisa Kituyi thinks Raila should now retire from politics, while Gitobu Imanyara says that ODM party betrayed everything that Gen Z fought for.

“When he joins to form government, is he solving the problem between ODM and Kenya Kwanza or between Gen Z and the government. Just because you have a hammer, it does not make every problem a nail. He is not a party to the contest that is on the table,” says Kituyi.

Parliament is now under sharp focus and the first litmus test will be the vetting and approval of CSs.