Ruto-Raila deal embodies a season of betrayals in political landscape

Demonstrations, fallouts, sackings and handshakes! Welcome to Kenya’s new season of a thousand betrayals where the youth can no longer trust their parents, political godfathers have sold their proteges and understudies and the line separating political foes and allies is so blurred that it’s impossible to tell who is who.

The ensuing confusion and chaos in political landscape is best exemplified by the disillusionment suffered by Gen Z, who had for months braved the elements, tear gas and bullets, both live and rubber, in the hope of liberating their motherland from a political system that has been consistently eating their future and hope rendering them jobless and poor.

When President William Ruto finally headed call for reconstructing his government and even cast away the impugned Finance Bill, the leaderless and formless GenZ celebrated a rare victory. Finally, they had won or so they thought. But they were wrong. 

From the steps of Kenyatta International Convention Centre emerged a beleaguered President William Ruto and his arch-rival Raila Odinga on July 9.  For the first time, there was talk of national dialogue and a promise of a broad-based government.

Alarmed, some skeptics warned Raila against betraying the youth, arguing that the problems that had sent them to the streets needed no dialogue and neither did fighting corruption and sacking inept Cabinet Secretaries. The Gen Z protestors, who had been felled in the streets clutching the national flag and chanting songs of freedom, had not yet been buried.

“Raila does not speak for us, any transaction he holds with the government is not about us but about his personal gains,” one of the X users wrote.

Dialogue key

Raila’s son Raila Odinga Junior also chimed into the online clamor, seemingly distancing himself from his father’s opinions saying, “Everybody is an individual please! Even people with the same exact names.”

On July 9, after Raila emerged from KICC with the President and his subsequent agreement to hold dialogue to discuss the crisis that faced the country he said: “I am happy to confirm that we have had consultations and we have agreed that dialogue is the way forward out of the crisis that we’re having today in our country.”

Minutes after the public announcement, Kenyans online, mostly the youth, fired at Raila questioning in what capacity he was taking part in the talks as many distanced themselves from being represented by political quotas.

But their frustrations and feelings of betrayal are aptly captured by a veteran of street protests, law lecturer and an activist who confronted Kanu’s excesses for a decade, Prof Kivutha Kibwana.

He fired off on X: “Raila you are no longer @RailaOdinga BABA. The GENZEE-MILLENNIAL MOVEMENT is now the OFFICIAL OPPOSITION. Now you are in your fourth-Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru & Ruto - handchequeshake. Always hid in plain sight. May the blood and tears of the young haunt you all your life.”

In another tweet, Kibwana wrote, “Why does AZIMIO believe it will solve the problems raised by GenZs by engaging Government while the aggrieved party is GenZ and the rest of Kenyans? The Political Class aborted MAU MAU of the 50s & the NCEC of the 1990s. The GenZ Movement is our only hope for PEACEFUL CHANGE.”

Despite Kibwana and other like-minded skeptic’s warnings, Raila entered into a secret pact with President Ruto which was sealed on July 24 when former ODM chairman John Mbadi, former deputy party leaders, Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho as well as Minority Leader in the National Assembly Opiyo Wandayi were named into the cabinet where they were handed prime positions.

Vintage Raila explained away the deal as individual-driven, denying any pact between his party and Kenya Kwanza administration but was quick to wish them luck even as he insisted that he was still in charge of Azimio la Umoja Coalition, which was supposed to keep Ruto in check.

Azimio co-principals, however, felt betrayed when a press conference called to disassociate the coalition from ODM’s decision was scuttled by violent goons who breached Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation and chased away Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka before he read the statement.

Kalonzo and his colleagues are still battling ODM to prevent the party, which has 86 MPs in Parliament, from chairing watchdog committees such as Public Investment Committee and Public Accounts Committees, which are reserved for the opposition. ODM maintains that the cabinet appointees are no longer members of the party since they had resigned.

“Inclusion of opposition leaders in government was a betrayal of the Kenyan people, particularly Gen Z and millennials, who have paid the ultimate price and that is why we opposed such overtures,” Kalonzo said.

Jubilee party secretary general Jeremiah Kioni said, “All Kenyans not just Azimio feel betrayed by the so called broad-based government where the government on its self-preservation strategy engages the Opposition which is political bad manners,” he said.

And as the Gen Z try to come to terms with the Ruto-Raila deal, more casualties from the ruling and the opposition coalitions are gnashing their teeth, cursing the deal that has snatched bread from their hands.

Some Mt Kenya leaders led by former Public Service CS Moses Kuria, who was among the hawkish leaders who earned a name by attacking Raila, especially following his handshake deal with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, have been kicked out of the Cabinet to create space for Raila allies.

During the last elections, Mt Kenya region was the battlefield that saw Railaphobia spread like bush fire where anybody associated with the opposition chief were treated like outcasts. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta was at some point maligned after the Handshake. Gachagua’s star rose owing to his prowess in dismantling Uhuru and his project.

Gachagua is now a hunted man, who is living in daily fear of being impeached by his party, which is emboldened by the number of MPs from ODM, who have now joined government ranks.

The broad-based government has eaten former National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Prof Njuguna Ndung’u position which has been given to Mbadi in what may be interpreted as a feeling of betrayal.

Others are former CS Kuria whose political future is now uncertain. Nominated MP Sabina Chege, who betrayed Uhuru to join the government side, is yet again on the wrong side of the ruling party and so is East African Legislative Assembly MP Kanini Kega, who backed by Kenya Kwanza had taken over Jubilee party as its Secretary General so that he could boost Ruto’s numbers in Parliament.

Raw deal

In Eastern Kenya, other leaders who have complained of betrayal include former Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama, who founded the ruling UDA party and through his influence, Penina Malonza was picked to head the Tourism ministry. She has since been edged out to pave way for the broad-based government.

In June, Muthama hit out at President Ruto, saying that the Kenya Kwanza government had given the Kamba community a raw deal despite playing a pivotal role in the 2022 General Election.

Ruto’s allies from Coast, Nyanza and Western, Raila’s strongholds, had earned the President’s ear for bashing the former premier during the elections and had in turn been awarded Cabinet slots.

Some of the former CSs, who had gone against the grain to support Ruto, included Ababu Namwamba (Youths) and Eliud Owalo (ICT), who have now been dropped in the Cabinet.

Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo and other Nyanza leaders, who opposed Raila and were rewarded by the Ruto administration, are only hoping to continue being accommodated in the government as Ruto may be consulting Raila on who to appoint from his region.

The ODM rebels, who ditched Raila to support the Ruto administration ‘in search of development’ in their constituencies’ could be on their own and their services to create networks for the government to penetrate in their zones are no longer wanted after tapping the blessings of Raila, whose influence goes beyond their constituencies.

“The leaders may be feeling betrayed by the President for inviting Raila into his administration despite his efforts to oust them from the ODM for agreeing to work with the government. The very same government may aid Raila in edging them out from their Constituencies,” Dr Charles Ng’ang’a, an analyst and Jomo Kenyatta University Agriculture and Technology don noted.