Gachagua's indecisive nature greatest weakness that could lead to his downfall

The differences between Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and President William Ruto are likely to follow the familiar trajectory that saw ambitious but unloyal vice presidents cast aside unceremoniously.

The odds are stacked against Rigathi, the man who likes to be called by the sobriquet Riggy G.  

After the Gen Z protests on August 8, Riggy G’s reckoning appears to be taking on a sense of urgency at the State House.

The protests were so epoch-making that the country is smack in the middle of a major political realignment that has so far brought about a broad-based government, which the Deputy President had no role in its formation.

The DP may have won a temporary reprieve from the chorus of calls to impeach him, but his job is far from assured, as his national profile and viability for his Mount Kenya people continue to come under constant attack by politicians from across the political divide.

Some politicians, concerned about his suitability to be their leader, would be glad to see the Gachagua ousted, while non-Mt Kenyan residents accuse him of being too tribalist to be a national leader.

The recent attempt by Ruto and Gachagua to paper over their differences in their public pronouncements would hardly last too long. The pair still have diametrically opposite views on the protests and their aftermath and on the President’s measures aimed at holding those behind them to account.

President Ruto, apparently mulling over a future without Riggy G, has already appointed four opposition figures to Cabinet with no input from his principal assistant, who has been implacably against the inclusion of the opposition in the government.

In Gachagua’s world view, Ruto’s broad based government is inimical to Mount Kenya’s interests and he considers the attempt to salvage his administration a brazen dilution of his stature as the country’s second in command — a concern that already seems to have materialised.

Now as in 2018, Raila Odinga, the main opposition leader, is the informal eminence grise 
at the State House, as his party has helped stabilise the government after weeks of protests that threatened President Ruto’s rule and the country’s peace.

Some government sources allege that the DP was partly involved in the organisation of youth protests.

Gachagua has said that the country’s spy chief Noordin Haji tried to connect him and former President Uhuru Kenyatta to the protests, a shocking revelation that was made a day after protesters stormed Parliament and burnt part of it as well as Nairobi City Hall.

The DP has not provided any hard evidence to prove his claim, nor have government sources substantiated their claim that he had a role in the protests.

The government source claimed that some foreign companies operating in the country have also tapped the service of lobbies in the US to try to influence Congress, a claim that, if confirmed, could explain the US government’s cavalier approach toward the protests in a country it had just months ago portrayed as its best friend in the Horn of Africa.

The mutual recrimination has already eroded the trust between Ruto and Gachagua just two years after their harmony was held up as an example of the unity between Kalenjins and Kikuyus following Ruto’s dustup with former President Uhuru.

The relationship between Ruto and Gachagua has been simmering for months, well before the June-July protests, at times bursting into the open like when the DP called the government a shareholding company or when he agitated for a one-man, one-vote, one-shilling revenue formula.

But after the protests, their dispute has soured so much that even officials in the DP’s office were questioned by the Directorate of Criminal Investigations detectives over their alleged role in the protests. 

Ruto’s long game

President Ruto has so far shown a remarkable tolerance—some would say pragmatism—toward Gachagua, displaying little outward public anger—a stark contrast to what was the case in old Kenya where a whiff of threat by the veep—let alone an attempt at regime change—would have swiftly ended the career of the suspect.

Last week, the pair travelled together to parts of the Mount Kenya region, with the DP acting as if there was no daylight between him and his boss. During their visit to Kagumo town in Kirinyaga county, the DP expressed his wish to be Ruto’s running mate in 2027 and vowed to stay in the government. 

“The president and I have a five-year contract with the people of Kenya,” he said, adding that when they finish their first term they would return to Mount Kenya and ask for a “renewal.”

He called on politicians pushing for his ouster to “please concentrate on the job you have been elected to do.”

“As for now, this is our government and we’re part and parcel (of it),” he said as President Ruto listened.

But his claim that “the government is ours” and that Mount Kenya is “100” per cent inside the government doesn’t amount to much, as he’s even not consulted on key government policies and decisions.

Right now, President Ruto is slow-walking his deputy’s removal, perhaps trying to avoid turning him into a martyr or arousing unnecessary anger in Mount Kenya.

Ruto knows that Gachagua’s trouble doesn’t only come from the State House and its allies, but also from some politicians from Mount Kenya who either eye his position or are unhappy with his leadership. He is, therefore, deliberately buying time.

Unless Ruto mismanages his deputy’s ouster, the likelihood of Gachagua’s removal becoming a cause celebre in Mount Kenya or leading to an uprising among the Kikuyus seems far-fetched. Of course, there will be politicians who will ride any anti-Gachagua wave and whip up emotions for their own interests.

Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga recently said that the clamour for Gachagua’s impeachment was an “affront” and “attack” on Mount Kenya people and would have consequences and the Kikuyu won’t take it lying down.

Even a former critic of the DP, former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, said he was against his impeachment.

“I will not agree for the Deputy President to be impeached as long as I am alive,” he said. “It’s not about my personal emotions. It’s not about what I think. It’s about these people.”

Just months ago, Kuria derided the DP as “a powerful personality with prior provincial administration” and accused him of financing Lumuru III, a gathering held to discuss Mount Kenya people’s affairs.

History made

Gachagua will go down in history as the first Deputy President who didn’t wholeheartedly defend the government during a major crisis in the country, even sensationally accusing security agents of extrajudicial killings and abductions. 

On June 26, a day after rioters burnt a part of Parliament and the City Hall building, the DP hit out at National Intelligence Service Director General Haji, accusing him of laxity, a dramatic claim from the second in command at a time of a grave national crisis.

He later leveled accusations against “those who try to take advantage of the whole scenario (the protests and their aftermath) to settle political scores with those they don’t support or those they have problems with.”

A study in contrasts

Even before the acrimony generated by the protests, there was little indication that Ruto and Gachagua—two ambitious and aggressive men with different world views—would be able to form a long-term alliance.

Gachagua is not your ordinary politician. He’s a study in contrasts and inconsistencies. The DP used to slight former President Uhuru during the elections, but he’s now accused of being his ally and mole in the Kenya Kwanza government. He’s a national leader, who has sworn to “truly and diligently serve” all Kenyans, yet he’s ripped for being a tribalist.  

If Ruto was happy with Gachagua’s theatrics during the campaigns, he may now be ruing the day he picked him. The DP is not only ambitious but he seems a warrior on a mission to further his interests and that of his people, to whom he confesses his love.

Gachagua may appear affable and harmless in his public appearances, but a Machiavellian man lies beneath. He’s a man who enjoys fights, especially the ones that benefit him and his tribe. He must have brought his innate street-tough character into the DP office.

Gachagua was created to be restless and outspoken, traits that could explain why he, in the first place, took to the bottle to which he lost three of his brothers. He brags about being the son of Mau Mau (freedom fighter). Something inside him, it appears, is itching for activism.

Gachagua’s missteps

The DP’s toughness is likely to meet its Waterloo in Kenya’s smash-mouth politics. If Gachagua falls as fast as he rose, either through impeachment or resignation or other ways, it’s because he has overplayed his hand — and Kikuyu elites, who despise him, may not offer him a shoulder to cry on.  Talk of a fall between two stools.

In his rush to protect his privilege, the DP has forgotten his boss’ smarts that outwitted rivals in the past. He also failed to understand the country’s changing trends that have little room for tribal chauvinists.

Like all ousted VPs in the past, Gachagua’s derring-do and talk about his love for his people may not shield him from the axe. 

If Ruto’s survival playbook of creating a parallel system under Uhuru worked, Gachagua’s tactic is unlikely to work under the live wire who invented the survival manual.  

Had Gachagua been conscious of his pitiable popularity among his people and been brutally self-centred, he wouldn’t have been fingered for any association with the Gen Z agitations that were alleged to have been funded by some politicians from his region. His attempt to become a Mount Kenya kingpin, where residents still adore other leaders, didn’t help matters.

“If in two years, Gema has not accepted Riggy G, Something is wrong with this Son of the Soil,” Mutahi Ngunyi, a former adviser to President Uhuru, posted on X on July 29. “... He must know that everyone around him is an enemy.”

Ruto’s initial calculation

In 2022, when Ruto picked Gachagua he had other considerations. The pick consolidated Ruto’s hustler versus dynasty narrative, as Gachagua was then harassed by the former administration. The DP also exhibited less visible ambition and ego at the time.

Ruto needed a fighter-cum-Kikuyu insider who had the courage to tear into his former boss, Uhuru. Ruto indeed needed a lapdog who held nothing back – a loose cannon, if you will.

During the campaigns, Gachagua, was a swarmy aide, displaying unadulterated loyalty to Ruto, who was somewhat restrained at the time for the obvious reason of appealing to everyone.

Nevertheless, Gachagua’s promotion didn’t sit well with Kikuyu elites, who don’t countenance the emergence of anyone from their tribesmen who’s not a part of their tight circles.

The influential elites were alarmed that a former personal assistant to Uhuru, who had no status to write home about, was going to be the kingpin in a region chock-full of high-achievers. Gachagua’s selection was itself seen as a challenge to the Kikuyu nation that values stature and name recognition.

The initial synergy between Gachagua and Ruto stoked further concerns that he (DP) will be a hired gun and Mount Kenya will be a victim under the new administration.

Worse, Gachagua continued burning bridges, antagonising many elected leaders from his region. In his brief time in office, the man from Hiriga village in Nyeri county, did little to win over the movers and shakers of his tribe. To him, he was the leader and everyone else from Mount Kenya should genuflect before him.

Nationally, Gachagua’s abiding love for his people and their interests has alienated a huge chunk of Kenyans.

Missed opportunity   

Gachagua’s ambition to remain relevant and be Ruto’s running mate in the second term is being undermined by the reality in his own backyard, where those aspiring to be Mount Kenya’s kingpin are many.

Safina party leader Jimi Wanjigi, who admitted supporting the recent protests and wants to unseat President Ruto in his own way, is one of them. So is the youthful former President Uhuru, who still has political ambitions to protect the interests of his family and retain his influence in the country.

This dynamic offers Gachagua no opportunity to have enduring power over Mount Kenya. If Ruto used him to ascend to power. Others are now trying to do the same, regardless of his own craving for the presidency. Those who’re seeking his affection, it seems, are doing it just to use his position to achieve their own interests, not to help him become the country’s future president or Mount Kenya’s kingpin.

Feigning ignorance

Had the deputy slowed down, talked less and enjoyed the ride – that is, the office of the second-highest office in the land – he would have, by now, relished a joyous time in his first term and could have well been a prohibitive candidate for a second term.

But that takes a lot of self-awareness, brutal selfishness and unalloyed loyalty to Ruto. Keeping the position of the Republic’s deputy president, the envy of the country’s who’s who, is not child’s play. Gachagua didn’t need to be a truth teller, a Kikuyu lover or a performer to flourish. Being an obedient assistant for his boss would have been enough.

Ideally, instead of trying to become Mount Kenya’s kingpin, he would have helped like-minded politicians in creating the region’s supremo. In Kenya’s zero-sum politics, continuing the denigration of Uhuru and feigning ignorance about the co-option of Raila’s allies to the government could have been of help.

Gachagua’s request for forgiveness from Uhuru has only proved his shaky loyalty to his boss and how he’s obsessed with Kikuyus at the expense of his working relationship with his new boss who’s on the outs with the former president.

Had the DP been submissive enough, he wouldn’t have worried about his future. Being a neither-fish-nor-fowl politician is a costly affair under Ruto -- and Riggy G. is paying a price for that.

Now that he has challenged his boss, he’s toast. When and how he will be eased out is everyone’s guess.