Mudavadi shines as trusted pillar, political ally in Ruto's presidency

As former Prime Minister Raila Odinga had his moment when he was unveiled as Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position, another man was shining.

At a function that brought together current and former Heads of State, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi was trusted to be the master of ceremony, alongside President William Ruto.

Picked to welcome Raila to the State House, Mudavadi would introduce the former premier to the dignitaries and invite him to the stage. Such assignments owe to his role as the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs.

Mudavadi’s office will be in charge of leading Raila’s campaign to replace outgoing AUC chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat, with Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei tasked with heading Raila’s campaign secretariat.

Over the last few months, the Prime Cabinet Secretary has led the government’s campaign for Raila, declaring full support for the former prime minister in a joint press briefing last June.

Earlier in January, Mudavadi had teased a possible pact between Ruto and Raila. Back then, few were aware of what he was talking about. He was among the few the Head of State trusted with the information.

Indeed, Mudavadi has been a trusted pillar in Ruto’s presidency. When he sacked the Cabinet in July, the president retained his ally, a move observers contended was meant to have a third person in the room.

At the time, relations between Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua were as strained as they could be and the President needed allies in his corner. Youthful protesters had brought his presidency to its knees.

As Gachagua went on the offensive, lamenting about being frustrated by the government, Mudavadi offered a shoulder to lean on.

Mudavadi was leading the Amani National Congress into a merger with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance, sparking talk that the President was considering replacing his deputy with Mudavadi as running mate in 2027.

Later when Ruto’s relationship with his deputy improved, the latter would join Mudavadi in flanking the President during addresses at the State House in a show of unity within his government.

Initially tasked with assisting Ruto and Gachagua steer the government, the Prime Cabinet Secretary would earn the Foreign Affairs docket in a government shuffle last October.

Although considered powerful, other ministries, such as Interior and Defence, have often overshadowed Foreign Affairs. That has changed during Mudavadi’s tenure, owing to the significant assignments handed to him by the President.

He represents the President in high-profile meetings and has supervisory mandates within the government.

Mudavadi is expected to drive the State’s economic diplomacy policy, which will see him engage with the National Treasury, Labour, Trade and Agriculture ministries.

Last month, he led Kenya’s delegation to the Tokyo International Conference on Africa Development (Ticad-9) ministerial meeting. He has handled more significant engagements, representing Ruto during the inaugurations of President Emerson Mnangagwa (Zimbabwe) and Bola Tinubu (Nigeria), as well as international trips to the United Kingdom and Switzerland, among other nations.

Saboti Member of Parliament Caleb Amisi believes that Ruto’s trust in Mudavadi owes to the fact that the latter is “less ambitious and does not disrupt the status quo”.

“He does not make demands on behalf of his community. He is comfortable and content, and not a threat to anyone. But this comes with immense costs to the community,” said Amisi. 

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua said the President trusted Mudavadi owing to his previous experience in the government, which includes a short stint as Vice President, arguing it gave him “a helicopter view of public service and a solid understanding of statecraft.”

“Musalia Mudavadi has a track record of successfully handling both local and international assignments. It is therefore not unusual for the appointing authority to trust him to deliver on assignments that have national and public interest implications,” said Mokua.

Historian Timothy Onduru, who teaches at Moi University, concurred.

“Mudavadi is a gentleman, is soft-spoken and someone who appears to be sober politically and it is easy for the president to have confidence in such a person,” said Dr Onduru.

With Mudavadi’s growing influence, there is talk that Ruto intends to endorse him as his successor if he gets a second term in office.

When he chose to support Ruto’s bid in 2022, Mudavadi dropped his own and accepted that the running mate position was meant for the Mt Kenya region.

Mudavadi would in 2017 accept to support the former premier and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for the presidency.