Raila: A baton handover and not letting it go

Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o is facing a herculean task to fill the shoes of Opposition leader Raila Odinga amid simmering political storms that are threatening the future of the ODM party.

Although Raila has shed off his role to Nyong’o temporarily as he concentrates on continental politics, party insiders believe his unseen hand will continue to influence the activities of the party.

This follows the party’s decision to appoint Nyong’o to chair meetings of the Central Management Committee on behalf of Raila on an interim basis.

The decision by the party to hand over the party to one of his most trusted allies, however, comes at a time the party is fraught with several uncertainties.

The Standard has established that the decision to name Nyong’o as an acting party leader has not augured well with several key allies of Raila, who believe the process was flawed and has not met their expectations.

Yesterday, a senior ODM official told The Standard that they had been expecting Raila to pass over the power button to his other ally and Siaya Governor James Orengo while a clique of younger politicians was vouching for Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Kisii governor Simba Arati.

This is happening even as analysts and Raila’s close allies claimed the decision to settle on Nyong’o was a calculated move to ensure that Raila still has the chance to return to active local politics after his stint at the continental seat.

“Younger politicians are not easy to trust. You saw how some of them carried out a coup in the Jubilee party and pushed out key leaders. They have to learn first and wait for their time,” said a senior ODM official.

The controversies present Nyong’o with his first major headache as the experienced politician who has also served as the party’s secretary-general begins the quest to steady the ODM ship.

In the recent past, Raila has been struggling to contain a supremacy battle among his allies who were keen to step into his big shoes as talks of his potential exit from local politics gathered moments.

While he has managed to contain the appetite of some of his allies by allowing them to join President William Ruto’s Cabinet as ministers, temporarily dimming their appetite to lead the ODM.

They include the two former deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Hassan Joho (Blue Economy), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (Finance).

Now, however, Nyong’o faces the hurdle of rallying the youthful MPs to back the party and its activities.

While very few ODM leaders are brave enough to challenge the party’s decisions openly, a few claimed they were dissatisfied with the process but committed to continue supporting the party.

Ndhiwa MP Martin Owino said the process ought to have been done through public participation of members. These include the national chairperson and the interim central management committee members.

He argued that ODM ought to have sought the opinion of its parliamentary group and conducted an opinion poll among its members before making the appointments.

“We have no problems with the individuals who hold these positions. But the process of appointing them ought to have been done through public participation of members. This would have enhanced the element of democracy in their appointments,” Owino said.

Similarly, another MP who wished not to be named admitted that the party is facing uncertain times and risks shedding a lot of support if they are unable to bring the house in order as soon as possible.

He claimed the loss of key officials who have joined the President as cabinet secretaries and cannot actively participate in the party’s activities leaves Nyong’o with a huge task ahead.

“The entire top leadership of the party has been replaced and this has left some gap in the party,” he said.

It remains to be seen if Nyong’o will lead another push by the party to conduct grass roots elections for its officials that had been suspended. The process is part of the party’s preparations for the 2027 General Election but has since stalled.

Similarly, Nyong’o is also inheriting the party on a caretaker basis at a time when its fortunes has been dwindling in most of its major strongholds as opponents including UDA digs in for support.

In Nyanza, Western and Coast for instance, UDA had stepped up its efforts to win over support and had embarked on an intense membership drive to eat into Raila’s support.

With the current soft handshake between the two parties, questions abound about how Nyong’o will lead the party to block further incursions to areas they consider their strongholds without ruining their newfound relationship.

Early this year, ODM was accused of engaging in underhand dealings including harassment and violence against UDA members in Nyanza. 

Yesterday, however, some ODM leaders claimed they are optimistic Nyong’o is capable of running the party and strengthening its grassroots support.

“When you look at ODM and what Nyong’o has done over the years, he has steered the party as the secretary-general and made ODM grow to what it is right now. He streamlined the party through regulations and rules that the party still uses to date,” said Kisumu West MP Rosa Buyu.

According to Buyu, Raila is still the party leader. “Nyongo will only step in when Raila is busy with African Union Commission (AUC) and is not able to chair the party central committee meetings,” she said.

Yesterday, Nyong’o described his appointment as an acting party leader as a great honor and vowed to walk in Raila’s footsteps.

“To the entire ODM family, I assure you that we will continue to follow in Baba’s footsteps as we strengthen it and take it to greater heights,” said Nyong’o.

However, political analysts argued that the ODM pronouncement is aimed at paving way for Raila to run for the presidency in 2027.

University of Nairobi lecturer, Herman Manyora, argued that ODM appointed Nyong’o to take care of Raila’s future interest in Kenyan politics.

Manyora argued that Raila’s failure to relinquish the ODM party leadership post implies that he is still interested in vying for the presidency in Kenya come 2027.

He argued that Odinga is not sure of winning the AUC chairperson post.  Therefore, he may still come back to run for the presidential seat in 2027 even if he wins the AUC chairmanship race.

“What I am foreseeing is that Odinga will still participate in Kenyan active politics in the future. On one hand, he may be unsure of winning the AUC chairperson bid. On the other hand, he may win the seat, serve for a few years, and abandon the seat to come back and vie for presidency in Kenya in 2027,” Manyora said.

He argued that was not the case, Siaya Governor James Orengo would have been named the central management committee chairman.

“Orengo is independent-minded that Odinga is not sure of whether he can easily release the seat back to him later when he returns to Kenyan politics,” Manyora said.

Report by Harold Odhiambo, James Omoro and Olivia Odhiambo