Thinning choices for Gachagua as impeachment reality hits home

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is a man stuck between a rock and a hard place. There are dire consequences which could kill his political career whichever option he takes.

Now that an estimated 142 Members of Parliament have appended their signatures to a motion intended to impeach him, the Deputy President has only two options: resign and live to fight another day or brave the impeachment and hope that in the event he is sent home, he will find reprieve in court.

There is also a third option of swallowing his pride, going to his boss and apologising profusely, pledging never again to contradict him and hope that President William Ruto will accept his apology and forgive him.  But time is running out.

The country is waiting to see which option he takes.

Will Rigathi quit and call it a half-term as a DP or will he rally his troops to take the fight to his boss President Ruto’s doorstep?

Will he wait for the impeachment and take his battle to the courts? Those are some of the questions flying around as the country’s political temperatures hit fever pitch.

For a man who has found himself in an uncharted political terrain, all eyes are on how his fate will evolve in the coming days amid heightened political lobbying.

Political observers however note that his goose is not yet cooked as perceived by many and he can still easily navigate the crisis, depending on how he checkmates his rivals.

Prominent lawyer Makau Mutua has advised Gachagua to step down before he faces impeachment.

Prof Mutua warned that impeachment would be politically devastating for the DP.

“My free advice to DP Rigathi Gachagua; please resign before you are impeached. Impeachment is a political death penalty that bars you from holding any public office in Kenya for life,” the lawyer wrote on X.

“The Deputy President is selected, not elected. The presidential candidate chooses the running mate; the people don’t elect the DP,” Mutua averred.

Mutua sought to counter Gachagua’s claims of betrayal, arguing that Mt Kenya leaders have a history of betrayal without facing consequences.

“Either DP Gachagua has severe amnesia or doesn’t know the history of his Mt Kenya people. The people of Mt Kenya don’t hate betrayal; in fact, they embrace it.” he wrote.

He also criticised the Church for allowing the Deputy President to use its platform for political statements instead of worship.

Kipkoech Ngetich, an advocate of the high court, says Gachagua’s easiest route is going on his knees before President William Ruto.

“He can approach the President and pledge total loyalty to him on the promise to cease acting like a co-president. Ruto is in a position to have the motion shelved,” said Kipkoech.

The advocate adds that reaching a truce with Ruto is a safer option than going to court which may only delay his removal but would not eventually save him if the grounds for his impeachment are substantiated.

“His other option is to face the impeachment and fight the government from outside. Although he is in a disadvantaged position, he can also mobilise numbers and pull a surprise on the material day,” said Kipkoech.

Gachagua has already received the backing of Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and his DAP-K counterpart Eugene Wamalwa whose parties have 26 and 6 MPs respectively.

With this footing, Gachagua will only be required to garner support from an additional 25 MPs to deny the motion the required support of two-thirds of the total members and grant him a lifeline in office.

Kipkoech, however, says that should Gachagua find these numbers impossible to raise, he should resign and go back to the drawing board and save his political career.

The advocate warns that an impeachment motion will be the last nail on the coffin of Gachagua’s political career having served as an MP for one term and as a Deputy President for half a term.

“This is also a personal decision. If he is convinced that he won’t get enough numbers, he should resign before impeachment. This will allow him to hold other public offices in future. If he waits until his impeachment, he will have himself locked out,” said Kipkoech.

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah said Gachagua should focus on raising the numbers at the Senate which has the final say on the motion.

“It is easier for Gachagua to move numbers in the Senate which has fewer members compared to the National Assembly. He still has a chance to fight the impeachment,” said Omtatah.

In the alternative, Senator Omtatah says, Gachagua can watch the process unfold and resign at the last minute if he sees he is losing.

“Gachagua remains innocent until a conviction is made at the Senate. If he notes he is losing, he can resign before senators vote. This will allow him to vie for elective seats in future,” said Omtatah.

Gitile Naituli, a Management and Leadership lecturer, says President Ruto’s silence on the matter makes reconciliation unlikely and Gachagua’s first line of defence is legal avenues.

“The DP clearly lacks numbers and therefore convincing Parliament to save him is a tall order. He can leverage on delaying the removal before or after the motion is tabled as he crafts his exit plan,” said Prof Naituli.

Naituli, who notes that Kenya’s politics are largely driven by emotions, adds that Gachagua can mount a public campaign especially in the Mt Kenya region and cast himself as a victim.

“He can portray himself as a victim of dishonesty and deceit. With this, he can cast all elected Mt Kenya leaders opposed to him as enemies of the people and endear himself to remain politically relevant,” he said.

The don further indicates that in doing this, the DP can capitalise on yet-to-be-disclosed shortcomings of the current administration and make them reconsider letting him go.

“Gachagua can simply win this war by losing. He can win by escalating the conflict. He knows dirty deals of this government which they wouldn’t want him to expose. If they insist on impeaching him, he can spoil the party for all to lose,” he said.

Additional reporting by Sharon Wanga