Ruto and Gachagua run out of options as public bays for their blood

Until yesterday, it was clear that President William Ruto was not in reverse gear in his quest to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The President has kept silent as his allies in Parliament lynched his deputy and overwhelmingly supported the tabling of a motion to impeach the embattled Gachagua. All indications show that Dr Ruto is involved in his deputy's ouster and is either pushing it or Kenya Kwanza's Members of Parliament have his nod.

The events of yesterday's nationwide public participation exercise, which saw the various fora turn into a public impeachment of the Head of State, must have left Ruto wondering if ousting his deputy was the best move.

Across the country, the masses demanded that Ruto should follow Gachagua out, once again highlighting the public discontent with the Kenya Kwanza administration. The President faces the dilemma of whether to sustain the impeachment and risk sparking a political storm that may consume him or to shelve it and endure a chaotic presidency for the rest of his term.

As observers have noted, the President can save his deputy by calling off the MPs' assault on him. He has an iron grip on Parliament, where his word has often been law. When Mount Kenya lawmakers previously wanted to impeach Gachagua, he met them and asked them to drop the plans.

Months ago, he summoned his allies in Parliament at State House to announce some concessions on the unpopular Finance Bill, 2024, and withdrew the Bill amid mounting public pressure.

Despite remarks by Kenya Kwanza MPs that they would not have accepted to drop the impeachment even if Ruto had requested so, it is obvious they would, and hence the pressure on them by politicians, the public and the clergy to iron out their differences.

But such a move appears unlikely, given the lengths the pair has gone to rip each other apart.

Over the last few weeks, Gachagua has publicly criticised his boss, opening up about his frustrations to the media and the government's shortcomings. On the other hand, Ruto is pushing for the most severe punishment for his deputy - impeachment.

"Gachagua could be 100 per cent willing to meet Ruto with what is happening to him but will Ruto want that chance?" posed Charles Ng'ang'a, who teaches at the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.

Timothy Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University, concurred.

"I don't see them mending fences as they have let it go to this stage where they are impeaching Gachagua," Dr Onduru said.

Dropping the motion is still an option within reach for the Head of State, and it could result in improved relations between Ruto and Gachagua.

Indeed, they had recently patched up things in the wake of the youth-led uprising that brought Ruto to his knees. The President and his deputy had fought bitterly before they emerged at the State House, alongside Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, to announce the appointment of a new Cabinet.

Shelving the impeachment also promises tough times for the President. Since he became DP, Gachagua has tried to popularise his claim to the Mt Kenya throne. It is unlikely that he will end his quest to succeed former President Uhuru Kenyatta in Mt Kenya.

Ruto has criticised his deputy's political activities, saying it was too soon to start campaigns for the 2027 elections.

"The worms are already out of the can. How do they work together after all this? If they stick together, they will be pretending," said Dr Ng'ang'a.

Ruto could still decide to let MPs impeach Gachagua, which could hurt the former's political hold of Mt Kenya. The President has been losing ground in the region that overwhelmingly voted for him in the 2022 elections.

The Head of State has seemed hopeful that he can save some of his support from the region and is believed to be scouting Central Kenya for Gachagua's replacement.

Among those in line to succeed the DP include Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.

"Gachagua could go with the support of Mt Kenya but Ruto could gain what he has lost in there in other regions. As things stand, Ruto will not get Mt Kenya intact like he did in 2022," said Onduru. 

Ruto is also exploring other regions, such as Nyanza and Western. He is banking on his broad-based partnership with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Together, they have initiated Gachagua's impeachment and look likely to succeed.

Without a solid footing in Mt Kenya, Gachagua's ousting will potentially weaken the Head of State, who will find himself significantly dependent on Raila's support if he is to secure a second term in office.

Ruto is not letting the former premier go and has been tagging him along everywhere he goes, amid fears that Raila could ditch the President if he loses the African Union Commission chairperson position next February.

"They may end up working together to save the country. Nothing is moving in the country right now," argued Onduru.

But Ng'ang'a believes that Ruto may be too weak to attract Raila's backing in the next polls.

"If Raila loses the AUC bid, he will be the person to watch and beat in the 2027 election. Kenyans have already experienced Ruto as President but not Raila's. If they both vie, Raila stands a better chance of winning. Ruto may end up backing Raila because he knows that he will only be elected by members of his community," he added.

The university don said that the DP should have looked beyond Mt Kenya and engaged Raila and Mudavadi when he realised the President wanted to drop him.