Succession race gathers pace ahead of Gachagua's impeachment debate

As the country waits with bated breath to know whether Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua will be impeached on Tuesday, a coterie of senior politicians is anxiously monitoring the developments keenly and eager to take up the throne.

The would-be beneficiaries of the impeachment are now angling to take over the mantle amid concerted efforts to deflate any political or legal fightback mounted against the impeachment motion. 

The Sunday Standard has established that following a spate of meetings between leaders from the Mt Kenya region, seven leaders are now touted to ascend to the presidency. It is also emerging that in the event Gachagua is deposed, his successor will be unveiled by the next Mashujaa Day celebrations on October 20.

Sources revealed that Interior and National Administration Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki, and Governors Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga), and Irungu Kang’ata (Murang’a) have been identified as contenders.

Other contenders for the seat are Leader of Majority Kimani Ichung’wah, Lands and Urban Housing Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri.

The Sunday Standard has established that the Deputy President’s successor will be picked from Mt Kenya.

Kindiki has been deemed as a natural replacement. He was the clear favourite having gained the confidence of majority MPs as a hard worker and symbol of national unity. The professor is touted to emerge victorious in the race.

He had in May 2022 emerged as the most preferred candidate to deputise Ruto when the process was subjected to a selection panel.

The process, which was subjected to a vote by MPs, saw Gachagua clinch 21 votes against Kindiki’s 38.  Ruto however went against the tide and picked Gachagua as his deputy. 

Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamucomba recently attributed the beginning of Gachagua’s woes to this very process.

Speaking during an interview last month, the lawmaker said this could be the genesis of Ruto’s and Gachagua’s political battles.

“Gachagua got 21 votes and Kindiki had 38 votes and we did not agree because the President wanted Gachagua and the majority wanted Kindiki so we had to justify why we wanted Gachagua over Kindiki,” said Wamucomba.

She added, “Gachagua’s problems started from the majority who did not want him. They started fights from the word go and all they do is that whenever they have access to the President they will always demean him.”

On the flipside, sources however argue that the Interior CS has proven “inaccessible at times” to leaders and that his hailing from Tharaka — which is in the Mt Kenya East region and considered a minority in terms of numbers compared to the Mt Kenya West — could be his greatest undoing.

“It is not yet clear whether Kindiki will be second time unlucky because all indications are that he is a forerunner to succeed Gachagua. However, politics is a moving target,” said a source who sought anonymity.

Waiguru, a second-term governor, is said to be a front-runner thanks to her strong leadership qualities and national appeal but questions have emerged over her “inability to relate well with fellow elected leaders.”

Kang’ata who has been an active politician since his heydays in university in 2001 is considered a wild card, credited for having immensely helped propel President Ruto to the reins during the 2022 pre-election campaigns.

Kang’ata is credited for leading the charge against the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) in the Mt Kenya region which if implemented, it would have led to the creation of new constituencies, embedding the ‘one man, one shilling, one vote’ principle in the Constitution, and dedication of more resources to the counties.

The BBI was also, however, seen as a tool to lock out then Deputy President William Ruto from ascending to the presidency, as it proposed an expanded executive which many felt would give opposition leader and former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s choice Raila Odinga an edge over Ruto.

But Kang’ata, through a bold letter to then Uhuru claimed that the BBI was not popular in the region and urged him to change tact to avoid embarrassment in case the reforms were subjected to a vote.

His track record in Murang’a County as a progressive and development-oriented leader has also been highlighted as a major plus.

Also in line is Lands CS Wahome who was voted out in the first round during the selection process in 2022. Those arguing her case are said to have listed her merits as a leader who speaks her mind and introduces the “woman factor” to the race alongside Waiguru. Leaders with 2032 aspirations also feel she does not pose a challenge when the time comes.

Leader of Majority Ichung’wah is credited with having single-handedly led the charge against Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region and for that, touted to replace him. Talk of him ascending to the Interior and National administration docket should Kindiki become the Deputy President is also rife. This, in consideration that his greatest undoing in the race to the presidency is that he hails from Kiambu County which has in the past produced two Presidents — Jomo Kenyatta and Uhuru Kenyatta.

Also holding a claim to the possibly soon-to-be vacant DP seat is Nyoro who was among the first to light fires under the seat of DP President Rigathi Gachagua before he suddenly went silent. Those backing him argue he has the appeal of the Mt Kenya region and is seen as growing into the position of the region’s undisputed future leader.

His decision not to append appending his signature in favour of Gachagua’s impeachment motion has, however, worked against him.

On the other hand, Kiunjuri, although considered an outlier, is said to fit the portfolio of a national leader having served as a former cabinet secretary and party leader.

The fact that he comes from the Mt Kenya region also works in his favour. But he is not a member of UDA and may have relatively fewer friends to vouch for him during the ongoing horse-trading.