The heavy weights and wild cards in Gachagua's impeachment

At a time like this next week, Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua will be out of a job, if his impeachment will be upheld by the Senate next Thursday.  

It is this reality that has set in motion intense jostling and lobbying for his position from those within and without government, with the list of contenders now standing at 12, according to highly placed sources.

While Gachagua is desperately fighting to rescue his career, President William Ruto is also agonising about who among his allies he will pick to fill the vacuum, if it arises.

These allies, who believe they have a fighting chance are now engaged in intense lobbying and have deployed several tactics including sponsoring opinion polls in an attempt to engineer people’s consent. 

The dynamics that prevailed in the 2022 polls have since changed and now the next DP must be a man or woman who will not expect to be carried by President Ruto. Instead, the nominee will be expected to win back Mt Kenya which is drifting away from the ruling Kenya Kwanza alliance because of the impeachment fallout.

The 12 disciples likely to succeed Gachagua are Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Muranga Governor Irungu Kangáta, Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome.

2017 elections

Also in the fray are Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, Leader of Majority at the National Assembly Kimani Ichung’wah, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, former Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Muriithi, and former Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe.

Besides being a long-time ally of the President, Kiunjuri was, like Ruto before him, elected Laikipia East MP when he was 28 years old.

Despite losing the Laikipia governorship to TNA candidate Joshua Irungu in 2013, two years later, President Uhuru Kenyatta appointed him Cabinet Secretary for Devolution and Planning, replacing Anne Waiguru.

After the 2017 elections, Kiunjuri was retained in the Cabinet as the Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Irrigation Cabinet Secretary. When Uhuru sacked Kiunjuri on January 14, 2020, his exit from the Cabinet was attributed to his close ties to Deputy President William Ruto, who had fallen out with Uhuru.

The fact that Kiunjuri comes from the Mt Kenya region also works in his favour. But he is not a member of UDA, and may have relatively fewer friends to vouch for him during the ongoing horse-trading.

Kindiki, who appeared as the clear favourite during a similar selection process in the run-up to the 2022 general elections, is featuring prominently this time round following his endorsement by leaders from the Mt Kenya region and also by elders as the region’s spokesperson.

National unity

His supporters deem him a hard worker and feel he has gained the confidence of a majority of MPs and Kenyans at large. They also view him as a symbol of national unity.

Further, according to a report by Infotrak released on Thursday, CS Kindiki is the most preferred candidate to replace Gachagua should he (Gachagua) be impeached by the Senate. The survey indicates that 20 per cent of Kenyans favour Prof Kindiki as the preferred successor.

But on the flip side, Kindiki’s undoing is that he comes from Mt Kenya East and would struggle to galvanise the restive block back to Kenya Kwanza fold. His ministry and the role played by security agents against demonstrators in the last two years may blot his image in the eyes of the public.

Prime CS Mudavadi, although considered an outlier, is also touted to ascend to the deputy presidency with sources seeing him as a safe pair of hands.

His 35 years of experience as a minister, vice president, and party leader is also an added advantage.

“Musalia is a mature politician who will help steady the government as it gets into the middle of its first term. As Ruto’s deputy, he will inspire confidence and help bring balance and spearhead delivery,” said an MP from Rift Valley and a close ally of the President.

Waiguru, a second-term governor, is also said to be a front-runner thanks to her strong leadership qualities and national appeal. 

The fact that she brings to the table the gender card is also seen as a plus. Additionally, five per cent of the 1,000 respondents interviewed by Infotrak support the Kirinyaga governor as a suitable replacement for Gachagua.

Kang’ata who has been in politics since his university days in 2001 and is considered a wild card. He is credited for popularising President Ruto during the 2022 election campaigns.

Kang’ata led the charge against the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) in the Mt Kenya region which would have led to the creation of new constituencies, embedding the ‘one man, one shilling, one vote’ principle in the Constitution, and dedication to more resources to the counties.

The BBI was also, however, seen as a tool to lock out then Deputy President Ruto from ascending to the presidency, as it proposed an expanded Executive which many felt would give opposition leader and former President Uhuru's choice of Raila Odinga an edge over Ruto. He has however been out of national politics and the limelight in the last two years and this may work against him.

Lands Cabinet Secretary Wahome was featured in the first-round selection process in 2022 but was voted out. She is a combative leader who speaks her mind and introduces the “woman factor” to the race alongside Waiguru.

Leader of Majority Ichung’wah is credited with having single-handedly led the charge against Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region and for that, touted to replace him.

Two presidents

Talk of him ascending to the Interior and National administration docket should Kindiki become the Deputy President is also rife.

This, in consideration that his greatest undoing in the race to the presidency is that he hails from Kiambu County which has in the past produced two presidents — Jomo Kenyatta and Uhuru Kenyatta.

MP Nyoro, who also interested in the DP slot, was among the first to light fires under the seat of Gachagua before he suddenly went silent. Those backing him argue he has the appeal of the Mt Kenya region and is seen as growing into the position of the region’s undisputed future leader.

His decision not to append appending his signature in favour of Gachagua’s impeachment motion has, however, worked against him.