Gachagua's ouster bid to shape Mt Kenya's 2027 political choices

The impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is expected to trigger a paradigm shift in the Mt Kenya region’s political dynamics. 

Political leaders and analysts say regardless of whether or not the Judiciary will save Gachagua from the ouster, his relationship with President William Ruto is irreparable. This means the embattled Gachagua will have to forge new political alliances with other leaders, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Kalonzo stood with Gachagua in his fight against the ouster when he directed Wiper-sponsored MPs and senators to oppose the impeachment motion and also visited him at the Karen Hospital when he was admitted at the facility.

The move by Kalonzo is interpreted as a strategy to woo not only Gachagua but the Mt Kenya region electorate who feel betrayed by the President for sanctioning the impeachment.

During the 2022 campaigns, Mt Kenya region was divided between Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s supporters voted for Raila, giving him 800,000 votes. Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) got the majority of votes there.

“The supporters who clashed because of Raila and Ruto now feel betrayed and that is what Kalonzo is chasing when he publicly shows empathy for Gachagua who had also sought forgiveness from the Kenyatta family in his efforts to win the 800000 votes that went to Raila,” Gitile Naituli, a university lecturer, opines.

Prof Naituli says before the DP’s impeachment, he had positioned himself as a defender of his region’s economic interests and a champion for Mt Kenya’s unique needs such as the one man one vote one shilling, fight against alcohol and says had made the impeached DP a darling of the people.

Following Gachagua’s impeachment, Prof Naituli submitted that Kalonzo could be trying to woo the disgruntled voters to see him as the only friendly political figure who stood with their son when he faced tribulations and vote for his presidential bid in 2027 as a result.

Feel betrayed

Naituli however noted that should Gachagua be saved by the courts, it would be very difficult for Kalonzo to convince him to support his presidential bid as he would demand to go for the presidency himself.

Herman Manyora, another analyst, is convinced that by allowing his deputy to be ousted, Ruto was digging his own grave since the Mt Kenya region would revolt against him.

“The region feels betrayed. This will have far-reaching consequences to Ruto in his reelection and this is largely because he requires the region to continue being the President.  The region alone helped him ascend to power,” he noted.

Political scientist Kamau Wairuri, however, argues that by the impugned Finance Act and Gachagua’s impeachment, Mt Kenya region felt abandoned and betrayed by the elected class, a move he says will result in a massive shift in the way voters treat elections and what they will demand of those they elect.

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“What is clear is that Gahagua has emerged as the most popular leader in the Mt Kenya region over the last few months, something that anyone else will struggle to achieve. Going back to history, Mt Kenya voters have often gravitated towards battle-tested leaders like Kenneth Matiba. Those who are persecuted gain immeasurable popularity. This war against Gachagua has been a blessing in disguise in this respect,” Dr Wairuri notes.

He, however, says whether Gachagua’s tribulations will lead to a consolidated vote behind him remains to be seen since three years is quite a long time in politics and there is no telling what will happen next.

“If the government continues to persecute the man, they may further endear him to the people. If they leave him alone, as the resourceful man he is, he may be able to sustain an onslaught on the government for that period even without the perks of high office. In this respect, the new way of doing politics that Gen Zs and people like Jimi Wanjigi have shown us will work in his favour: You don’t have to stand on top of the cars to pass your message across to the people. You can do it effectively, on a small budget from simply sitting in a radio studio or even hosting an X-Space,” he said.