Why the new Ruto Cabinet should not spin your head

President William Ruto has left us scratching our heads by appointing a new Cabinet. Luckily he gave us time to reflect by appointing it in four steps.

One CS was left, 10 followed, another 10 followed, and now two to go. We shall be left speculating who shall get the remaining two slots. With ODM getting four slots, the remaining can go to anyone, including myself.

Why did the new Cabinet fail to spin my head? Did it spin yours? Political decisions are not like personal ones and defy conventional wisdom. 

Here are my reasons why my head failed to spin. Let me add that experience has also toned down my idealism.

One was the boldness. By reappointing some old faces, the president gave a coded message; I am the president. Gen Z and others can make their demands but the buck stops with him.

The president’s wise counsel might have been, “if they ask me to sack the Cabinet and I do it, they will keep demanding more”. By reappointing some of the previous members, he probably toned down any future demands for sacking.

Two, we often forget that governments are run by political parties. And the word party means just that. You can’t abandon key party members in times of crisis. Where would the ministers have gone if they are let to go? Join opposition? You get closer to your friends in times of crisis!

There was another complication; some ministers were former MPs and senators, deriving their mandate from voters. Think of the political backlash if they were left jobless.

Three, by reappointing these men and women, against all odds, they will be very loyal to the president. He can always remind them “it was a narrow escape”. We have precedence on such loyalty, if you are old enough to remember. They will have no choice but to help the president succeed, second chances are rare.

Four, new Cabinet members would have to go through the learning curve, wasting precious political capital. By the time they settle, it would be 2027. Political leaders value continuity and quick results. Voters are impatient.

Five, I was of the opinion that a broad-based Cabinet could have included some Kenyan minorities - a Mzungu, an Asian or even a Nubian. It did not happen. Once the focus shifted to 2027, it was about political leverage and gathering votes. Someone would ask, what would they bring to the table politically?

Six, we keep saying that one should not waste a good crisis. The president did not waste it. He ensured that he got a foothold in regions that were previously excluded by appointing ministers from there. He ring-fenced his voting blocks. If the opposition visit these regions, they will be asked what they have given the region.

If voters see tangible economic benefits out of these appointments, that will tilt political scales in 2027.  Be sure the new appointees will get celebrity status.

Seven, the president used the crisis to dismantle the opposition. Remember Jubilee had earlier been split into two? Now Azimio has been split too. Remember the old military strategy, scatter your enemies after defeat. That scattering will continue till 2027.

In the intervening period, you will see and feel the reach of the government and its power. A proverb from Central Kenya aptly describes the next two years or so: “Ndegwa ndíonagio kamúkwa” (you don’t show a bull the rope).

Eight, the ‘Western’ strategy seems to have been cemented. Read on USA Republican Party southern strategy. By bringing the populous Western Kenya region into his fold, President Ruto has shifted the political centre of gravity farther west, looping in the lake region. Where was it before?

Nine, how do we deflate the subterranean national anger? The key issues from high cost of living, corruption and now deaths during protests are still there. Expect a charm offensive from the government, now that the storm is almost over. And it has come early enough with time for political, and hopefully economic recovery.

What next?

The Cabinet is like a train engine. Goods and passengers are carried by box cars. What will happen to the rest of the government? We have heard of merging some departments. Going by the regional distribution of Cabinet posts, what will be there for regional box cars?

My hunch tells me such deep reforms like mergers of state corporations will be slow and well calculated.

The current political situation in Kenya mimics end of WW II. The losers, Japan and Germany, revenged through the economic front. They built strong and vibrant economies that made up for their loss on the battlefront. Shall the losers on the political front now shift their energy and rage into business and entrepreneurship like the Japanese and Germans?

President Ruto could also learn from the Chinese Communist Party. Since opening of China in 1978, the philosophy seems to be “I will let you make money, but let me rule.” Will the president after consolidating power let us make money? After all, the protest were about economics. What economic reforms will spur growth and make us forget the painful political events?

Economic reforms are harder to carry out than constituting a Cabinet, but the dividends will accrue to everyone. It starts with the taxpayer who happens to be the voter too. How can we help him or her start new businesses or expand the existing ones to create more jobs and taxes? Remember 80 per cent of Kenyans are in the informal sector.

The protests were about economics, reforms should be about economics.