As Raila Odinga goes global, his political shadow will still loom large locally

Conventional wisdom and some exaggeration shared online suggest there are five levels of government in Kenya: The Executive, the Judiciary, the Parliament, the Constitution Commission, and Raila Odinga. The first three are traditional. Commissions were borrowed from Nigeria. As for Raila, his political power is an enigma but read on.

Raila is like water, which can exist in several states - liquid, solid, or gas -depending on the circumstances. Anytime political circumstances change, he also changes, ensuring his longevity. That makes it hard for his political enemies to ensnare him. Water would be less useful if it existed in only one state. Do you recall the anomalous expansion of water; if you didn’t sleep through your high school physics? Others suggest Raila is like a eucalyptus tree: you cut it, and it regenerates with more vigor.

We have repeatedly withdrawn Raila’s political obituary. Why does he keep making comebacks? Let’s try to de-enigmatise Raila Odinga.

First, he has been in politics long enough to understand its highs and lows. If you add his father’s political experience, his family has been in active politics for 77 years. His father, Jaramogi Odinga, joined the Kenya African Union in 1947; time endears you to voters. You become a brand. Compare that with a newly elected MCA or MP. His family name adorns streets and universities. Which other family has done the same? BTW, how did Rift Valley-based names find their way into Muthaiga streets?

Second, having held so many political positions is another asset, from MP to Prime Minister. His global experience, which took him to East Germany as a young man, was a head start. Never mind the political system. There is no such thing as a bad experience in politics. Such early exposure to global issues is an asset in politics. Is it accidental that some of our past presidents have had such exposures, in the UK or USA? When shall we get an Eastern-educated president? Or will it be an Easterner like Rishi Sunak?

Third, he knows when to act: when KANU was in crisis, when PNU was in crisis, and lately, when KK was in crisis. The latter took everyone by surprise. But his announcement that he is pursuing the AU Secretary-General post can now be contextualized. Winston Churchill was right: never waste a good crisis. In politics, there is always collateral damage. What or who was it in the Gen Z protests?

Fourth, Raila has ensured there is no political vacuum in his political backyard. That is the mistake other politicians have made. That indispensability is a political asset. Add his solid voting block; which politician would not salivate for such a block, now and in the future?

Fifth, before going international, Raila made his local political base secure. You do not leave your family without money or shopping when going on a long trip. He left surrogates in the broad-based government. Some could be bold and call them Trojan horses. He may not play politics directly but indirectly. Raila has tentacles in the grassroots (mashinani), which can be activated anytime. We are still asking why the Gen Z protests were unusually muted in his political backyard compared with Karatina.

Sixth, his political moves suggest active political advice to ensure he is ahead of the curve. Think of his suggestion that he consulted Uhuru Kenyatta before joining the broad-based government. If Kenyatta says he did, Raila wins, and Azimio gets an endorsement into the broad-based government. If he keeps quiet, it’s still an endorsement. If he says no, Azimio gets divided. Who are RAO's political and economic advisers?

Seventh, I don’t know how affluent Raila is, but you can’t last that long in the political arena without money. I can infer his wealth from his residency, Karen. It is the favorite home of the new money, irrespective of the source. Is that diluting its stature? Karenians or is it Karenese, what do you say? Some show off, please; when I recently played golf at Karen, helicopter noise was a big distraction. Has that changed after the Gen Z protests? Money has become the lubricant of the political machine. Are you following the fundraising in the USA for the two political parties?

Eighth, one of the most forgotten sources of power is political party “ownership.” And Raila always has a party. That is handy in political bargains, building networks, fundraising, and representation in county assemblies, the National Assembly, and the Senate. If you doubt it, study the Chinese Communist Party or the USA political party system. That is the soft underbelly of our number two. Do I say more?

Ninth, he never gives up. He has tried for the presidency five times and failed. That becomes a source of political power. Even a trial is a lesson, an accumulation of political capital and experience. He can tell any new leader, “You found me here.” Many, at Raila’s age, would have long retired to a beach to count sunsets, sunrises, or grandchildren.

Tenth, Raila probably gets inspiration from other elderly leaders like Joe Biden or even Trump. Raila is old enough to be my father, but his fountain of political energy never runs dry. How many reading this can or will muster Raila’s energy at his age?

You are free to share more on the sources of Raila’s political longevity. I have deliberately left out his soft underbelly; he is an elder.

What’s next?

If Raila wins the AU seat, his stature will rise further. I expect him to declare he has been promoted to the Premier League. Do not believe it; it will make it easier for him to play local politics. And that will matter in 2027.

If he fails in his bid, he is at home. He can argue that it’s an addition to trying for the presidency five times. Which political leader would ignore such a serial political entrepreneur? Some suggest his AU job is a plot to neutralize him politically. I would say in whispers, try someone else, not RAO.

Let’s be blunt: with or without the AU seat, Raila’s long political shadow will hang over our no longer young nation longer than political pundits have predicted.