Trump is back, should we lose sleep?

A member of Nyahururu Golf Club shared a photo of a champagne bottle to be uncorked once Kamala Harris was pronounced the winner in the US presidential race. By Wednesday morning, Simon Ngugi had got an apt but mean response from another member, “uncork sour uji”. 

Online, Kenyans talked in low tones when it became evident our sister was losing. And as usual, Kenyans’ humour never disappoints. A packet of fermented milk (Mala) was shared online and rebranded KaMala. 

There is no doubt Kenyans looked forward to President Kamala Harris. They probably wanted another Obama, from a brother to a sister. We identified with her background just like Obama. She fought hard but too late.

Few can doubt Kamala is presentable, but that was not enough to get to the White House. I was skeptical about her winning right from the start. She came into the race late. She could not ‘divorce’ herself from Joe Biden’s presidency and its blame for the high cost of living. If she distanced herself, that would be interpreted as disloyal.

Democrats are arguing she should have been selected through voting in primaries. That would have emboldened her. I argued that the winner was the candidate who would incite and excite the voters to come out. Trump had the upper hand. We may dislike Trump’s language but that is what excited and incited voters.

Trump’s victory had a number of surprises. Why would Latinos vote for Trump, yet he was anti-immigrant? Paradoxically, I noted some of the most anti-immigrants are migrants themselves in my sojourn in the US Deep South. They would love less competition and dislike the dilution of the prestige that comes with coming to America. Republicans seem to understand the American psyche.

Trump knew the hot-button issues as he incited and excited his political base. The economy ultimately undid our sister. It was hard to convince Americans that she would turn around the economy when she was part of the regime blamed for the high cost of living. Kamala should have talked to William Ruto, who successfully dissociated himself from the legacy of Uhuru Kenyatta. 

In the US, it all boiled down to the economy; other issues such as reproductive rights and fear of Trump II were muted. If you ever lived in the US, you understand why the economy matters so much. You don’t go borrowing money from relatives or neighbours, and few have side hustles. 

Blue wall cracked

Why did the ‘blue wall’ crack? Economy again. It’s not surprising that a number of blue wall states are in the Rust Belt, a region that has been de-industrialised by global competition. Visit this region and see rusty steel mills. I saw one in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

Too much focus on Trump was another mistake for Kamala. Americans knew Trump from his first term. ‘Defectors’ from the Republican Party such as Liz Cheney and her father, a former vice president, could have sunk Trump. They did not. It seems Trump‘s core base was unshakable.

There were external factors. How did war the in Gaza, Lebanon and Israel - and the feud with Iran - affect voting? Remember there are Arab Americans in some blue wall states. Did America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan portray democrats as weak and make Americans yearn for a strong man?

In the coming days, Democrats will search their soul for what went wrong. Novelty, thrusting Kamala into the political front to wrong-foot Trump, didn’t work. He is a battle-hardened politician. Some think Kamala was too modest against Trump. Did voters see that as a weakness? Did the debate give Democrats false hopes? 

No one wants to say it loudly, but was gender and race a factor? Remember Trump’s core political base is conservative. If Hilary Clinton, white, could not be elected, why should Kamala? What role did religion play in Trump’s historic comeback? What of his near-death experience? 

Kamala was at Howard University, the Harvard of historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). Did voters think her election would dilute American elitism? Would Obama have been president without going through Harvard? Maybe I am overthinking. 

Trump II is coming on January 20, 2025. Should we lose sleep?

There will be definitely changes, not just in the White House but in other government agencies. Certain jobs are reserved for political appointees and that includes ambassadors. Trump II will come with new policies. One key area is foreign policy. We are waiting to see wars end in Gaza, Ukraine and other hot spots. 

Trump has been inward-looking. He could be felt more at home than abroad. Will he deport millions? He did not in his first term.

Too costly

Economics is the main reason. Immigrants suppress wages, a high supply of labour leads to lower wages. That makes products and services cheaper. Would Trump risk higher prices because of high wages?

The logistics of hunting immigrants is too costly. He may focus of those against the law, not every immigrant. He could make entry to the US harder, both legally and illegally.

Clearly, Trump is pro-business and the markets cheered. Foreign aid could be adjusted or shifted to countries more in line with US interests. 

Trade wars, not hot wars mostly targeting China, could characterise Trump II, but high tariffs will lead to higher prices at home; that could tone down Trump's rhetoric on trade. 

One big issue Trump must confront is the threat of China in the de-industrialisation of the West. The rise of electric cars, where China is a leader, threatens car manufacturers in Europe and the US. And it’s becoming a political issue. It’s not accidental that Elon Musk is one of Trump’s key supporters. 

Kenya? Africa? It is unlikely Trump will talk of “shitholes” again, America needs Africa to check the rising Chinese influence. Remember the Mombasa–Nairobi superhighway to be built by Americans? Did I hear Kenya has applied to join BRICS? What will be America’s reaction?

Overall, Trump II could be vastly different from Trump I, there is a legacy to build and at his age, he should have mellowed or will mellow.