President and his deputy play political chess in fight for survival

They are on different sides of the coin but their situation is much the same. Both President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua find themselves fighting for their political survival.

Dr Ruto is not letting go of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who has accompanied the Head of State in recent trips to China, Germany and the United States.

The former premier appears to be Ruto’s lifeline, saving him from a youth-led uprising that brought the Kenya Kwanza administration to its knees. Under assault from his deputy, the Head of State also needed allies in his corner.

For the most part, Raila has seemed as a solid partner Ruto could count on. And despite boasting the backing of more than 40 MPs from Gachagua’s Mt Kenya backyard — an apparent illusion of victory against his deputy —Raila seems to be the pillar holding the President together.

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Ruto, a tactful politician who outsmarted his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, and claim the presidency, finds himself depending on others to guarantee his survival. Two years ago, he did not seem so vulnerable, having accessed the Mt Kenya vote without any middlemen.

It had seemed that Ruto had inherited former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s throne, with MPs opposed to the former failing in the 2022 General Election.

The tables have quickly turned and the President is struggling to keep to one strategy to tame Gachagua, whose lamentations are snatching Mt Kenya away from the President’s grip.

Fearful that his deputy’s popularity could be growing in Mt Kenya, Ruto’s allies are fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as their point man as they plan to impeach Gachagua.

Observers view Kindiki’s pick as aimed to keep the options open for Ruto in 2027, given he is a much easier deputy to drop as the repercussions  will not be as significant.

A previous bid to prop up Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro as an alternative flopped and the President has come up as desperate to rid himself of Gachagua sooner rather than later, which could have ramifications. Now he is like a man with gangrene which must be gorged out skilfully. Any misadventure with the scalpel may exorcise the gangrene but leave the host  with mortal wounds.

“Musalia Mudavadi warned that a withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 would be like a vote of no confidence. Ruto lost his legitimacy on June 25 when Parliament was breached. If he wants to regain legitimacy by dumping his deputy then good luck to him,” said businessman cum politician Jimi Wanjigi.

On his part, Gachagua, is fighting to keep his job, and is pegging his hopes on the “ground” to force lawmakers from the Mount Kenya region to shelve the ouster plan.

Similarly, he has resorted to blackmailing his boss, recently warning of consequences if his Central Kenya backyard were to deem Ruto a traitor if he is to be discarded.

He is equally pleading to keep his job, urging Ruto to shelve the ouster bid and wait for the next election.

An impeachment motion had seemed farfetched, but the President’s alliance with Raila has made such a move within reach. The Deputy President finds himself trapped, fully aware that he will struggle to fight off his impeachment courtesy of his meagre support in Parliament. 

Reports indicate that more than 300 MPs have appended their signatures in support of the motion.

Gachagua is supported by a handful of MPs from his Mt Kenya backyard, the result of his self isolation from the rest of the country. The general feeling among lawmakers is that he will fall if the impeachment motion is tabled in Parliament.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita believes Gachagua will lose his relevance if impeached.

“His relevance only goes as far as he is sitting in that office because people want someone who can speak on their behalf. He has already lost relevance among MPs. He was vocal fighting when  Uhuru and Raila and found himself with no one else to fight but his boss,” said Nyamita. 

The DP and his allies do not share this view.

“Our people hate betrayal and are very unforgiving if you betray them. I ask my brother Ruto not to be tempted to go to that direction because these people will be very unforgiving,” he said.

Gachagua’s fall is not necessarily Ruto’s gain. While the DP’s exit allows the President to replace the former with a more ‘loyal’ ally, it also exposes him in case Gachagua leaves with the Mt Kenya bloc, on whose back Ruto rode to the presidency.

“If the people in Mt Kenya interpret the political developments as Ruto kicking them out, then the retaliation will be serious. If the ground has shifted with Gachagua, then everyone opposing him in Mt Kenya will go home,” said University of Nairobi philosophy lecturer, Dr Francis Owakah.

Doubtless, Ruto, accused of being a control freak and tone deaf, is not Kenya’s most popular President. Before the protests led by Gen Zs and Millennials, the President had faced a previous wave, led by the Azimio coalition.

Back then, the Raila-led opposition warned that while Ruto had won new allies from the opposition — a job he embarked on since his election — the President had lost the masses.

This time round, Ruto has bagged the opposition and there is a case to suggest that he has lost the people. He is yet to address the issues raised by the youth, who, courtesy of their numbers, could grant the President an early retirement in 2027.

Azimio, too, could support Gachagua’s impeachment saga with the intention to pounce. A number of lawmakers have publicly endorsed the ouster bid.

Ruto’s warm reception in Nyanza last month could give the impression that he has secured the region, but Raila’s hesitation to firm up a deal with the President suggests that the latter should not count his chicks.

“He will be extremely weakened without Gachagua,” said Dr Owakah.

“I don’t see Raila having that much influence, especially among the Gen Zs even if he supports Ruto.” 

Sources close to Raila said the former premier is reluctant to endorse Ruto for re-election in 2027 and has adopted a wait-and-see approach, pegging any future deals on how their current partnership with Ruto turns out. That is regardless of whether or not he becomes the chairperson of the African Union Commission.

Raila previously said he would not succumb to “blackmail” over his continental bid.There already exists two factions within Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement, pro and anti-Ruto.

“That is a clear path to the presidency,” said a source who sought anonymity over the sensitivity of the subject.

“Raila did not finish his journey with Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta. What makes you think he will finish the journey with Ruto?” he posed.

At an event in Siaya on last Sunday, Raila’s allies in ODM gave the impression that their union with Ruto was “temporary”, with Nyamira Senator Okong’o Omogeni saying that the Western and Nyanza region still dreamed of producing the next president.

In Mombasa, UDA Treasurer and Kitutu Chache North MP Mr Japheth Nyakundi said that the party was prepared to get another deputy president who will serve Kenyans across the regions.

Chache said Gachagua has been focused on championing the interests of one region and sidelined the rest of Kenya as if he was elected to serve a section of Kenyans.

He said the DP has not been talking about the interests of Coast, Nyanza and any other region except Mt Kenya where he hails from as if he was elected to serve only that region.

“The DP has been fostering the interests of only one region. As a country, we cannot afford to have deputy presidents for each of the eight regions. We will remove him and look for a DP who is ready to serve all Kenyans equally,” he said.

The Sunday Standard learned that President William Ruto endorsed the impeachment motion on Wednesday but retracted his stand on Thursday after intervention from businessmen and church leaders, and has called for a parliamentary group meeting next week to state the way forward.

A Mombasa lawyer Mr Abubakar Yusuf said yesterday that it would require two-thirds of the MPs to endorse the impeachment motion before the Speaker of the National Assembly can allow it to proceed.

[Additional reporting by Joackim Bwana and Patrick Beja]