Why Matiang'i will lose badly if he contests against Ruto in 2027

Now, with Matiang'i entering the scene, the question arises: What makes Matiang'i more formidable than these two political juggernauts (Nyachae and Raila)? considering that they are competing against a master of political craft, a graduate of Arap Moi's School of Political Science with expertise in rhetoric and political allure.

To begin with, Dr Ruto now has the State machinery at his disposal, which he lacked during his 2022 presidential campaign. This sets the stage for a real political contest in 2027, pitting political experience against expediency.

Let's ask: Does anyone believe the casual chatter that Ruto will be a one-term President? No way. Ruto, known for his political erudition, will secure his second term without significant obstacles.

Matiang'i has earned a reputation as a decisive leader, a quality that resonates with many Kenyans tired of the slow-moving, "wait-and-see" approach often taken by politicians. As Interior Cabinet Secretary, he made headlines for his firm stance on security matters, decisively handling the security situation across the country.

From cracking down on cartels to addressing banditry in the North Rift, Matiang'i was not afraid to take tough stances when necessary. For many voters, this decisiveness is a breath of fresh air in a political landscape often marked by indecisiveness and back-tracking. Ruto also possesses this character and may have even surpassed Matiang'i's record.

Then there's his relationship with the public. Matiang'i doesn't have the flashy public persona that some of his political rivals thrive on, but he doesn't need it. His reputation is largely based on his work, not his ability to deliver soundbites. During his tenure, he earned the admiration of many ordinary Kenyans who saw him as a man who got things done. There isn't much contrast to what the President is doing. If anything, Ruto is slowly and surely implementing his manifesto for Kenya's betterment. He aims to ensure that his promises of bottom-up economic policies are effectively implemented.

The key to Matiang'i's appeal in 2027 will be his ability to present himself as an alternative to Ruto's leadership—a leadership that many feel has yet to meet expectations. In reality, there is no alternative to Ruto's regime. Ruto promised radical economic transformation, and many Kenyans feel that the benefits are now being realised. Inflation has been stabilised, the cost of living is decreasing, and unemployment has been addressed through online jobs and the mass migration of youth abroad.

Matiang'i, on the other hand, could capitalise on growing discontent by offering a more pragmatic, results-oriented approach. His background in education, security, and administration provides a foundation for a platform that could resonate with Kenyans seeking competence over political theatre.

Another advantage Matiang'i holds is his lack of political baggage. Unlike other contenders embroiled in corruption scandals or seen as part of the entrenched political elite, Matiang'i has largely avoided scandals that have tainted many of his colleagues. He is a rare politician who has managed to stay out of the mud that typically sticks to Kenyan leaders. This clean image makes him a strong contender in a country where voters are increasingly tired of corruption scandals. While Ruto has promised to fight corruption, his administration's handling of issues like the Kimwarer Dam scandal and the ongoing controversy over the rising cost of living leaves many wondering if the "hustler" promises are just that—promises.

Matiang'i, with his focus on efficiency and governance, could offer a refreshing change. Of course, one cannot ignore the fact that Matiang'i is not without his critics. His approach to certain policies, such as his crackdown on rogue matatus or his handling of public protests, has made him somewhat controversial. However, Kenya's political landscape is no stranger to controversy.

Ultimately, Matiang'i's bid for the presidency will hinge on his ability to unite Kenyans behind a vision that transcends ethnicity and party loyalty. He will need to offer not just a critique of the Ruto administration but a clear, compelling plan for the future.

In the end, politics is a game of timing. While many have written off Matiang'i as too quiet or too behind-the-scenes, the truth is that he has been carefully laying the groundwork for a serious presidential run. After all, in Kenyan politics, numbers matter the most and tribal card is the best bet to beat.