Return of Joho: How Cabinet entry will redefine Coast's politics

“With a dagger, the Sultan is back!” lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi posted on his X-space shortly after former Mombasa governor Hassan Ali Joho was nominated to join the Cabinet.

Joho is among four ODM top brass that President William Ruto has tapped to steady his shaky government following sustained protests by Gen Zs in the country.

Others are his ODM co-deputy Party Leader Wycliffe Oparanya, ODM chairman John Mbadi, and Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi, the Minority Leader in the National Assembly.

Joho has accepted the nomination for the Cabinet Secretary Mining and Blue Economy, and he will now have to team up with fierce critics of his 10-year reign as the governor of Mombasa.

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However, questions abound about the deal between Ruto and Raila that saw Joho join the government and if the move will strengthen or weaken ODM’s grip on the heterogeneous Coast vote bloc.

Political analysts say Joho’s entry into cabinet could weaken the political support base he has carefully built in the last 16 years at the Coast if UDA fails to deliver on its promises.

Fears are also rife that the working relationships between President Ruto and Joho could fuel the ongoing faction wars in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) on the Coast.

Governance experts say the nomination also presents the residents with an opportunity to question Joho’s massive wealth he accumulated during his reign as Mombasa governor.

Joho’s vast import and export business, real estate, and logistics services empire are expected to be at the centre of his vetting by the National Assembly on Sunday, August 4.

Like former Transport Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, Joho also leads a flamboyant lifestyle, marked with glitzy and expensive watches, shoes, clothes, and luxurious cars, if his posts on social media are anything to go by.

The 48-year-old ex-governor’s net worth is unknown, but he often brags about his first Sh6.6 million he made from a clearing and forwarding job at the Port of Mombasa at the age of 20.

Ananiah Mwabodza, Ruto’s one-time legal advisor, said Mombasa residents would keenly follow the numerous cases in court between the state and Joho’s family.

“Mombasa residents will have an opportunity to ask him tough questions during the vetting process. He is ours, but he must be accountable for what happened in Mombasa County during his reign,” said Mwabodza.

The jury is still out on the ramifications of Ruto and Joho's bromance at the Coast and in national politics, with some analysts saying that the former governor could for the first time in his political career be charting his political course away from Raila.

Joho’s meteoric rise in Coast politics has largely been driven by his family’s business empire and Raila’s influence cultivated since the days of his father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

UDA leaders in Mombasa like Nyali MP Mohamed Ali accuse Joho of engaging in hooliganism and leading the worst corrupt government in the county.

Already, UDA in Mombasa is divided into three factions led by Ali, East African Legislative Assembly member Hassan Omar, and former Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo over the party polls.

Before his nomination, Joho appeared to have revived his long-term friendship with Omar after the former Senator criticized state agencies for frustrating the ex-governor business.

Joho’s relationship with Omar has been warm and cold since 2012, as they worked together at times and later fell apart. However, the two Hassans appear to have buried their hatchets.

Mwabodza said there was a need for Ruto to ensure that ODM members joining the Cabinet do not engage in UDA politics as this will be against the party’s constitution.

“Those joining the government, including Joho, must show respect or be courteous to those who fought hard in 2022 to form the Kenya Kwanza government.

He added, “Joho takes over from Mvurya, and if he fails, then we will blame two sons from the Coast for not steering the huge Mining and Blue Economy industry to our benefit.”

Despite the World Bank, European Union, and other development partners pumping over Sh13.5 billion into the blue economy, most local fishermen say they have yet to reap dividends.

Dr Ahmed Yahya and lawyer Abubakar Yusuf said Joho came back from the 18-month sabbatical after the Supreme Court upheld Ruto’s win against Azimio’s Raila Odinga, with a plan.

After his absence from all Azimio activities, including last year’s protests and meetings, Joho re-appeared in February this year to dispel claims that he had deserted Raila Odinga for Ruto.

In his defense, Joho said his absence was occasioned by “personal issues he had to take care of in the U.S and Dubai” and vowed allegiance to ODM and Raila, which he hailed as his “political father.”

However, as he defended himself at Mombasa’s Wild Waters Centre Joho put a disclaimer – it was time for Raila to pass the torch to him as he had sacrificed enough for the ODM leader.

“I joined ODM as a young man. I’ve supported Raila in cash and kind, during good and bad times. Is it bad for me to ask our father to endorse me as his child?” asked Joho then.

In his usual bravado, Joho told Raila: “It is time for a coastal to run for the presidency in ODM. Kama mbaya, ni mbaya. Kama ni noma ni noma (If it’s bad, so be it. If it’s chaos, so be it)”.

Mr Yusuf said Joho fancied his chance to rise in the ODM stratum to the 2027 ODM presidential candidate after Raila declared his bid for the Africa Union Commission (AUC) chair.

“This is the first time that Joho will be forced to resign from a party led by Raila since he joined politics in 2005. He could be charting his course away from his “Baba’,” said Yusuf

Dr Yahya said there were tale-tell signs that Joho was getting frustrated in ODM, and was under pressure from Coast leaders to lead them out of Raila’s fold

Since 2013, Joho has been battling wars for the control of ODM. In 2014, he joined a group of young ODM MPs who almost wrestled the party's mantle from 'old forces'.

In what the current Makadara MP George Aladwa, has repeatedly touts as an act to "save the party", the 2014 Joho-axis plan to take over ODM was thwarted by the infamous men in black.

In 2017, Joho tried to spread his popularity in Luo Nyanza, Raila’s bastion but suspended the plan after his rallies were disrupted in what he later labeled as an “assassination attempt."

In the run-up to the 2022 polls, it took numerous interventions for Joho to bow out of the race for the ODM presidential ticket, putting him in direct collusion with Raila.

“It is clear that Joho feels that ODM and Raila owe him some political debt. Ge feels that he should be Raila’s heir apparent, but there is no such thing in politics,” said Dr Yahya.

He said that Joho political future would depend on whether Ruto succeeds or fails, or he would team up with Kingi so that they can actualize their plans of a coast centric party.

“If Ruto succeeds, Joho will stick with UDA because he will be guaranteed a plum job in Ruto’s post-2027 government. If they fail, Joho will have to carry that monkey on his back,” said Yahya.

Mr Yusuf said Ruto nominated Joho because Mombasa was the epi centre of protests at the Coast, and partly because he overlooked it in his first cabinet.

“Ruto's and Raila's interests converged in Joho. Raila rewarded Joho for his sacrifices for ODM. Ruto also wanted to rectify the mistake of leaving Mombasa out in the first cabinet, which is partly blamed for the protests witnessed in Mombasa,” said Yusuf.

However, keen observers of the ODM politics concur that Joho and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed remain the most trusted allies of Raila he consults before he makes a move.

Joho solidified his place as the ODM's most trusted devotee after he attended the 2018, mock swearing-in of Raila as the “People’s President” which was skipped by most NASA luminaries like Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetangula skipped the function.

It is also said in the corridors of Chungwa House that the two were instrumental in the subtle diplomacy that brokered the deal between Ruto and Raila and birthed the NADCO committee.

Before intrigues and behind-the-door deals that resulted in a truce between Ruto and Raila were reported, Joho was pictured with Tanzania President Samia Suluhu in Zanzibar.

It is not clear if Joho invited Suluhu but Raila would later accuse Ruto of frustrating her for two days in Mombasa where she had arrived to mediate the 2022 post-election crises.