Gachagua running out of options

Few foresaw President William Ruto's seemingly successful navigation of the political turmoil sparked by Kenya's youngest adults, now referred to as the Gen Z movement. 

It has been a surprising turn of events as Ruto turned to his political rival Raila Odinga to stabilise his struggling Kenya Kwanza administration, which is reeling under massive countrywide protests over poor governance, corruption and opulence. 

It begun on June 18 when what is looking like a new chapter was written in Kenyan politics. Anti-government protests that were triggered by controversial tax hikes, evolved into a wider campaign for more accountable governance. Some demanded the entire government’s resignation.

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Last week, Ruto consummated a political marriage with Raila's ODM party proving the notion that the country’s politics was a high-stakes game driven by interests, intrigues and manipulations. 

By having four of his close allies appointed to the Cabinet, Raila has distinguished himself as an astute political chess grandmaster whose shrewdness and manoeuvres have once more, against all odds, catapulted him to the sanctums of power. 

The new political developments are expected to redefine and reshape the country’s political architecture, with emergence of new political alliances across various ethnic and regional political blocks in the country in the run up to the 2027 general election. 

The Gen Z protests, which put President Ruto’s administration at a precarious position, served as a catalyst for Raila to pounce and place his demands on Ruto’s table to enable him salvage his dwindling political fortunes. 

The unprecedented protests had the potential of destabilising the government which for over the past one year has been losing ground even in its traditional support bases due to escalating cost of living and non-performing economy. 

Raila’s centrifugal political forces have not only disrupted UDA’s tectonic plates but has also caused severe fissures in the Azimio La Umoja, One Kenya Coalition to which he belonged, with partners alleging he had betrayed them. 

As UDA’s underground political tectonic plates are shifting to the disadvantage of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the political fortunes of Raila’s are changing above the ground. 

With Odinga now able to pull strings in the government to secure four Cabinet posts for his key lieutenants, it is obvious that the centre in Kenya Kwanza administration can no longer hold.  Gachagua's much talked about shareholding in the government is all but diluted. 

This is the fourth time that Raila has, through ‘‘unconventional’’ means, pulled out all the stops to secure himself the front seat in the upper echelons of power after a bruising presidential contest, confounding both friends and foes. 

Raila, who has contested and lost in five presidential elections, has, in an amazing and unexpected political machinations and scheming, reinvented himself and rose again like the mythical phoenix from the ashes. 

The Opposition leader’s political gymnastics, which are backed by a solid and cultish political following, have over the years placed him at the centre of the country’s political power game standing shoulders above others in the Opposition benches.  

In a strange twist of fate, Raila’s dramatic entry into government has seen him pull the rug under the feet of pro-establishment politicians who have ended up being pushed to the edge to accommodate him and a cohort of his faithful allies. 

With Raila’s new found relationship with Ruto, political observers agree that the die has been cast, and the abrasive Gachagua will soon be facing his political waterloo. 

Long-serving Director of Press in the late President Daniel Moi’s administration Lee Njiru, says Raila has fully mastered and perfected the art of Machiavellian politics, which are driven by pursuit of power by all means. 

“The purpose of one being in politics is the pursuit of power. Raila keeps his sight permanently on his broader objective, which is to attain power and the privileges that accrue from it,” Njiru told The Standard. 

“Kenyans need to realise that the objective of politics is the pursuit of power and the attainment of a politician's objectives, other shenanigans are mere strategy meant to deceive and hoodwink the masses. Going forward, the political arena will abound with political theatrics as politicians re-align themselves. But there is one thing Kenyans need to remember: As you go hunting, your dog and the jackal and wolves you are hunting are cousins. They can turn against you because they belong to the same clan,” Njiru said, quoting an old adage.

Former Molo MP Njenga Mungai, who is the chairman of Jubilee Party’s Council of Elders, says the objective of any political party is to capture power and Raila was free to lead his troops into an alliance with Kenya Kwanza administration. 

“Political marriages are not meant to be permanent as each political party has its own strategy and philosophy of capturing power. We in Jubilee Party are not bothered about the move by the ODM as our focus is on how we can strengthen our party,” Mungai told this writer. 

The former MP, who served in Parliament for four terms, says politics was about interests which keeps changing with time. 

“Each political party and regional groups have their own interests and well thought out strategies to attain them. I am calling on our support bases to start consolidating and recruiting more members in preparation for the next general election,” Mungai said. 

The politician, however, stresses that the Kenya Kwanza administration had the responsibility to ensure effective service delivery to all Kenyans regardless of their political affiliation. He says all that Kenyans want is the stability of the country and effective delivery of services. 

“Even as Ruto plots to consolidate his ground in preparation for the next general election, he should not abdicate his constitutional responsibility to serve all Kenyans, as the state belongs to the people of Kenya,” he said.

The former legislator emphasised that, whichever way one looks at it, Raila's entry into a working relationship with Kenya Kwanza administration would inevitably have far reaching effects on Gachagua, who has, on his own manoeuvres, been at loggerheads with Ruto. 

“Nevertheless, Gachagua’s problems do not concern us as Jubilee. He is not our baggage but an UDA baggage. Let the UDA sort its own mess as we rebuilt our house in readiness for the next general election,” Mungai said. 

Mwangi Kariko, a former deputy mayor of Nakuru, brings in regional politics and argues that the alliance between Ruto and Raila is an eye opener for leaders from Mt Kenya who supported UDA and who now risk being relegated to the political dustbin. 

Kariko, who contested for and lost the Nakuru Town West parliamentary seat on the UDA party ticket says Mt Kenya region risked being isolated politically if leaders continued to undermine each other. 

“The leadership in Mt Kenya region is fragmented and advancing selfish interests and that is why the President is reaching out to new political players to stabilise his government. Mt Kenya region needs to wake up from its slumber and consolidate its numbers in order to have a stake in any political arrangement in the country,” said Kariko, ardent Gachagua supporter. 

He, however, says Kenya was a multi-party democracy and leaders were free to forge political alliances based on their ideology and interests. 

Kariko called on Gachagua to read the signs of time and embark on a serious campaign to unite his political base. 

“Gachagua still has a political future if he manages to rally Mt Kenya region behind him and he can negotiate with like-minded leaders as the country heads towards the 2027 general elections,” he said. 

Former Party of National Unity South Rift Regional Coordinator Julius Kariuki however says Raila and his team would add no value in President Ruto’s administration “as it was a one-man show.” 

Dr Kariuki, who contested for the Nakuru Town East parliamentary seat during the 2022 general elections and failed, says that unless there were structural changes in the management of President Ruto’s administration, Kenyans should not expect the government to redeem its image. 

“By reaching out to Raila, Ruto knows that Mt Kenya region, which gave him close to 47 per cent of his votes, has lost faith in him due to his inability to fulfill his campaign pledges,” Kariuki said. 

The politician said Gachagua’s political career in UDA was doomed as the entry of Mr Odinga in Kenya Kwanza’s political arena would lead to reconfiguration of previous political arrangements. 

“Gachagua is behaving like a bull that silently waits for the hour of slaughter in a slaughter house. The Gen Zs protests only slowed his political slaughter,” Dr Kariuki added.