How Raila Odinga silenced succession talk in ODM

Since his loss in the 2022 presidential election, the subject of Raila Odinga's retirement has lingered.

The discussion went a notch higher when early this year, the former Prime Minister announced his intention to chair the African Union Commission (AUC) in elections slated for February next year.

A few months ago, his ardent loyalists within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) fought viciously to succeed the opposition veteran, lobbying their masses to push for their claim to the party's throne post-Raila.

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Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho marshalled his troops from the Coast and North Eastern, with Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya seeking refuge among his western Kenya allies.

Both, former deputy party leaders, believed they were the right persons to take up the position upon Raila's retirement. But they faced competition from Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, then the Azimio coalition's leader in Parliament, who was the most favoured among Nyanza lawmakers.

Wandayi also earned the endorsement of Raila's elder brother, Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, saying the former Ugunja Member of Parliament was closest to Raila's heart.

National Treasury CS John Mbadi was also interested and was supported by Raila's wife, Ida Odinga.

The four men seemed the most ambitious to succeed the ODM leader, whose actions betray his reluctance to hand over the political baton. To manage the ambitions, Raila had endorsed both Joho and Oparanya to lead in his absence. But in one fell swoop, the former premier recently knocked the quartet out of the succession equation, nominating them into President William Ruto's Cabinet.

The law bars CSs from holding party positions. When he announced replacements days ago, Raila essentially presented a new face of ODM's future. He also hinted at his interest in remaining politically active, even if he bags the AUC seat.

Raila has repeatedly said that Addis Ababa was a two-hour flight away, saying he would be on call to advise his temporary replacements he chose days ago.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Governors Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir (Mombasa) and Simba Arati (Kisii) were picked as Raila's deputies.

The selection of three deputies has been widely seen as a move aimed at calming different interests as well as diluting the role to avoid any challenge to Raila, who will keep his party leader role. If unsuccessful in the AUC bid, Raila has an easy route back to his ODM party. The same is true if he wins.

The opposition veteran retained Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as his party's secretary general, a powerful position senior party officials say Raila describes as the "heart of the party". Sifuna is among Raila's closest allies and was poised to deputise him before the deputy party leader was watered down.

In the changes, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was named chairperson, also lining her up for a potential succession. Missing from action, however, was Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, a vocal politician seen as a potential heir to Raila in their Nyanza backyard.

Babu has unsuccessfully lobbied to bag an influential role within ODM and is mostly regarded as a junior member among ODM's ranks.

"Babu is still relatively new in politics," says University lecturer of history Timothy Onduru. "There are more experienced and mature people who can take the mantle."

Despite his age, Babu's forays in Nyanza, where he tours regularly, have not gone unnoticed.

Like Raila, the youthful MP holds a charismatic appeal that endears him to the masses, making him a potential threat to others interested in taking over Nyanza's politics. In a previous interview, the lawmaker said he did not mind being left out and that his time "would come".

But Babu is already charting his political future and is among young MPs calling themselves "team ground", who see themselves as the alternative to the opposition, now muzzled by Raila's alliance with Ruto.

On Friday, he led fellow lawmakers in calling out the president for his handling of issues raised by youthful protesters, quoting former South African President Nelson Mandela as he hinted at his presidential ambitions.

"Young people are capable, when aroused, of bringing down the towers of oppression and raising the banners of freedom," Babu said.

The lawmaker’s immediate ambition is to oust Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja in 2027 but is already facing roadblocks, courtesy of Raila’s preference for Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi.

Dr Onduru argues that Raila's reluctance to have Babu as an heir owes to the fact that the latter "goes overboard."

Over the years, Raila has faced criticism for failing to groom successors and blocking those with bright political future. 

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua previously observed that Raila was “nervous” about handing over, both in ODM and Azimio.