Political ground to shift as Raila exits to focus on AUC campaigns

Kenyans are mulling the import of Kenya's political landscape without Raila Amolo Odinga, the man who has deconstructed, defined and redefined politics and on numerous occasions.

The Azimio leader's remarks that he was taking a break from local politics to focus on his African continental politics, though anticipated, have caused some ripples.

Raila’s absence in Kenya's political discourse as he crisscrosses the continent to woo African Head of State to support his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC), according to political experts, will lead to major political alignments even as the pundits differ on whether his influence will remain.

Azimio la Umoja coalition and ODM, where Raila is the undisputed head, are some of the key political institutions that have so far initiated succession politics with members of the entities angling themselves to replace Raila.

While Raila has cleverly managed his succession in ODM by "donating" to President William Ruto his two deputies, party chairman, and an MP who had expressed interest in succeeding him, there is a looming vacuum in Azimio. 

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has already declared himself as Raila’s successor in the Azimio coalition while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino declared himself as the next ODM leader should Raila succeed in his ambitions.

Before the formation of the broad-based government, Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSME) who were former ODM deputy party leaders had started campaigning to take Raila's position as ODM party leader.

Their ambitions to succeed Raila were however scuttled after they were donated to President Ruto to serve in his cabinet. Political pundits see the move by the president as a strategy to inherit Raila’s strongholds by picking his loyalists, who may play a role in Ruto’s re-election campaign.

“When Baba goes, be prepared to follow Babu. For those who want to fight me, I will deal with them properly. We will not want games in our party because this party must produce a president,” the MP said earlier this month.

But Prof Macharia Munene believes Raila will not just let go of his dominance and influence in the country’s politics as he would want to influence his successors in the party for him to continue having a say in the country’s political arena.

“Very little change. If anything, his influence will continue to be around, and even in 2027, he will still think he can come back and beat Ruto. He will just do that as he moves in and out. He loses an election, throws some tantrums around, and then he is the winner, and he benefits out of it. He benefits from the government's inability to govern, and when that is the case, governments find a way to cut a deal with him,” Prof Munene noted.

 Munene opined that Raila may still want to control such influence and remain a key figure in the political direction of the country albeit silently.

 “If a situation akin to the unrest by Generation Z reoccurs, Ruto would not mind for Raila to have a good word wherever he is as long as they are in good books since Raila will still have the ability to persuade his followers because he has a big following to undermine the movement. But their success would depend on the new pressure. As to the Generation Z pressure, both dealt with it fairly well,” he added.

However, political analyst and governance expert Javas Bigambo believes that Raila’s absence, both during the campaigns and if he wins will ultimately leave some of the politicians destitute especially those who have been hanging on his coattails.

“There are those who have never even campaigned or put up a poster because his endorsement alone was an election victory for them. So it leaves others as political destitute. But on the other hand, it gives room for the emergence of other political players, even in his own backyard. People like Joho. Joho, for example, has been a key political player at the coast. But nationally, it has had to be under Raila's arms,” Bigambo noted.

He said with the exit of Raila, various key players within ODM are going to jostle for national leadership, for critical national visibility, and to create their own spaces for growth and political sustenance beyond hanging on the coattails of Raila, saying the 2027 general elections will be elections to watch, especially with Raila’s traditional strongholds.

 “Coast and Western regions have been within the clutches of Raila. Now, with his exit from active politics, we are going to see the organic rise of some other leaders within these areas. Leaders such as Oparanya or even Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in Western will never again say that Raila is the one who has been stopping them from raising their heads from the water,” Bigambo said.

For Kalonzo, Bigambo opined that Raila’s absence will isolate him as a national leader on account that Raila has sustained him in politics as a national figure.

“Unless Kalonzo creates new strategies and new approaches, he is going to tether himself within Eastern Kenya. Currently, Kalonzo remains a  Kamba leader, without so much of national influence beyond Ukambani the way Mulu Mutisia was. Mulu Mutisia is known and is remembered, but his effect remains within Kambaland, not anywhere in Nairobi, not anywhere in Western, not anywhere in the coast,” said Bigambo.

 He added, “Every epoch always has its time. Raila would not be there forever. Even if he was still there, he would not be as strong in the 2027 presidential contest because of health and other attrition factors. We are going to see the emergence of other solid political players who nobody imagined would even be stronger because Raila was a hoovering figurehead.”

But ODM’s National Treasurer and founder member, Timothy Bosire, maintained that Raila’s dominance in Kenya’s politics will remain. He argued that even if Raila steered clear of local affairs to focus on his campaigns for AUC, he would still remain the ODM’s party leader.

“Transitioning to the African context does not mean completely disconnecting from home politics, the only change and difference will be merely his absence but the party will continue discharging its obligations fully as we are strong, vibrant and have solid structures.

 But Edward Kasembeli, communication expert and political analyst, said that given that the AUC presents its leader as an arbiter and a person who supports cohesiveness while local politics by their nature are adversarial, aggressive and bipartisan, Raila will be forced to remain neutral on Kenya’s politics 

If he wins the seat and moves to Ethiopia,  Ruto will use Raila’s men to inherit his political base.

“Raila’s move will inform key political alignments and new alliances. Ruto may gravitate around Raila for a political pact, as his moves seem to be disengaging the Mt. Kenya region, while his Deputy Gachagua may likely forge an alliance with Kalonzo and some other leaders for the 2027 general elections.  All these are informed by Raila-Ruto pact and by extension Raila and AUC bid,” Kasembeli said.