Ruto's options in looming break down of ties with Gachagua

The conflict between President Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua has continued to generate intense heat, causing a meltdown on the mountain, which was UDA’s political bastion in the last general election.

Following revelations in the last few days of a planned impeachment of Gachagua, political observers now see a fallout between the two, which has thrown the mountain region into a spin.

The intrigues and conspiracies in an attempt to control the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 elections have escalated.  Sources in political circles point to emerging two camps of leaders from the region holding separate meetings to strategise on forming political parties for the region.

Each of the two groups, though not working together, hope to mobilise the region under one political outfit ahead of the 2027 election as the region prepares to ally with friendly regions.

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On several occasions, Ruto and Gachagua have swiped at each other while unleashing allies in a well-choreographed proxy war.

The declaration by 68 MPs from the Mt Kenya region that they had severed their links with Gachagua in favour of Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki underscores strong political undercurrents that threaten to pull the rug from under the DP’s feet.

Gachagua’s decision to snub a church function in Nyeri where the President was the chief guest was telling, as is the decision by a group of elected Members of County Assemblies from 11 counties in the Mt Kenya region to denounce him as their kingpin.

His tell-all interview on Citizen television on Friday night where he opened up about “a senior person abused me at the airport and called me stupid” for fighting his kinsman and confidant during the 2022 campaigns, and his complaints about being removed from a WhatsApp group that coordinates the President’s diary, left no doubt that relations between the two top leaders of Kenya Kwanza are damaged beyond repair.

It now remains to be seen how the President strategises to retain the region’s support, which voted for him to the last man during the 2022 elections.

Gachagua, who appears to be the man of the moment in the 2027 succession matrix due to his growing influence in Mt Kenya politics, is being watched keenly to see how he puts his best foot forward in the wake of the fallout with his boss.

Political observers agree that the Mt Kenya region will still play a central role in the 2027 succession politics due to its high level of political consciousness, its voting strength, and the desire to protect its socio-economic and political interests.

With the heightened battle with Gachagua, it is apparent that the President will have a new pick for the position of running mate.

It remains to be seen how he will navigate the power play and interests in various ethnic and regional voting blocks as he cobbles up a winning team.

With the President publicly hinting at having a woman as his running mate and DP Gachagua’s ardent allies also pointing out that they were considering having their own political vehicle, it is clear that the UDA vessel is sailing into uncharted waters.

There are perceptions that some powerful forces in UDA were fragmenting Mt Kenya into different ethnic compartments to weaken its voting strength after realising that the residents would not solidly support President Ruto’s re-election bid.

Other quarters argue that the decision to undermine Gachagua was aimed at clipping his political wings and weakening him politically to ensure he does not pose any political threat to his boss if he throws his hat into the ring come 2027.

Former Molo MP Njenga Mungai said President Ruto had unleashed on Gachagua the same team of political intrigue that he used to undermine President Uhuru Kenyatta. “This time, the cabal has turned against one of its own.”

Mungai added: “We cautioned Gachagua and his team against falling prey to President Ruto’s machinations when they blindly followed him without a party, and now they are at his mercy.”

The former MP, the chairman of the Jubilee party’s Council of Elders, warned leaders in the Mt Kenya region against turning the area into a political battleground, saying this would jeopardise the development agenda.

“The problems in Mt Kenya region will be solved politically, and that is why leaders need to establish their political outfits to negotiate for political power with other regions,” Mungai added.

Mungai argued that although the Jubilee Party had its own vision and roadmap for taking political power with other like-minded political parties, “we will not allow ourselves to fall prey to President Ruto’s divisive politics.”

The former MP said the Mt Kenya region remains a formidable political force and will determine the outcome of the 2027 general election.

Political strategist, Kabue Mathenge, argues that President Ruto’s succession game plan would revolve around Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who is doing her second term, Kindiki or Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. Mathenge added that following Ruto’s rapprochement with ODM leader Raila Odinga, he wore Homa Bay Governor Glady’s Wanga’s name on his sleeves.

“Anne Waiguru and Gladys Wanga are the two possible women candidates for Ruto’s running mate slot, in case he was to go by his hint of having a woman Deputy President,” Mathenge said.

Mathenge added, “On the other front, the elevation of Kindiki to the position of Mt Kenya regional kingpin by forces allied to Ruto indicates that he is considering picking him as a running mate in case he drops Gachagua.”

The political strategist who coordinated President Mwai Kibaki’s and President Uhuru Kenya’s presidential campaigns in the Rift Valley region said Ruto is a man walking on the edge of a sword, as the disintegration of Mt Kenya’s voting block, which propelled him to power, heralds his waterloo.”

Mathenge said even if the President retained Gachagua as his running mate in 2027, his re-election would run into headwinds in the Mt Kenya region, where the voters are disenchanted with his government performance and grappling with a litany of unfulfilled promises.

Political commentator, Julius Kariuki, said Ruto will have difficulty replacing Gachagua with another person “due to power politics in Mt Kenya region where the DP is evolving as the dominant political forces.”

Dr Kariuki said there was perception in the region that the Kenya Kwanza administration had failed in its mandate and was undermining the DP to cover up on its failures.

“Even those leaders and residents of Mt Kenya region who were previously opposed to Gachagua are now talking favourably about him due to the issues he has been raising about the need for the government to deliver on its pledges to voters,” Kariuki added. Kariuki said that instigating divisions between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West would flop as residents regarded themselves as one people. 

None of the four leaders touted as possible replacements for Gachagua had the capacity to attract a sizeable number of votes in their regions, propelling President Ruto to power, said Kariuki

“So if President Ruto were to pick Gladys Wanga as his running mate, there is a high possibility that she will not amass the votes Odinga received from the Nyanza block. The Nyanza votes can also not match the Mt Kenya block, which President Ruto will have lost,” he added

The political strategist added that Ruto would also face a political backlash from Western Kenya’s support base if he were to bypass Prime Cabinet Sectary Musalia Mudavadi in favour of Wanga for the DP slot.

A former ODM-nominated senator, Harold Kipchumba, said the President would be in a significant political dilemma while picking Gachagua’s replacement “as he has new allies in Nyanza whom he would wish to please while at the same time seeking to please Mt Kenya region due to its large numbers of voters.”

The former senator said Ruto and his team used the same political script he developed while serving as former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s deputy.

“He used Gachagua, Kimani Ichungw’ah Ndindi Nyoro and others to undermine the president and weaken him politically in Mt Kenya region.” He said and added 

“President Ruto has been using all manner of dirty tricks to undermine Gachagua to weaken him, but the question is how far he will go as Mt Kenya region is still a formidable voting block and currently is solidly leading towards the DP.’’

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Kipchumba said that Mt Kenya region will determine the outcome of the next presidential election due to its numbers, ability to mobilize itself as a region, and capacity to mobilize its friendly regions.

“I foresee Mr Ruto running out of options once he terminates his partnership with Gachagua as all forces in Mt Kenya region will come together to oppose his bid for another term”.

Kipchumba said without Mr Odinga’s name on the presidential ballot, the Nyanza region would be hit by voter apathy, and President Ruto could not amass sufficient votes from the area if he were to pick Wanga as his running mate. The Luhya vote was fragmented, and it would be an uphill task for the president to amass sufficient votes in the Western Kenya region to replace the loss in Mt Kenya in case he parts way with Gachagua, said Kipchumba.

Former Baringo East MP Joseph Lotondo said President Ruto would still have many supporters from Mt Kenya region “ as he seeks re-election in 2027.”

“With the president having Nyanza in his camp, Western, Rift Valley and Coast regions, he is bound to bounce back to office as he will still manage to get the support of a sizeable number of voters from Mt Kenya region,” Lotondo said.

Lotondo added that it was highly probable that members of the Mt Kenya community in various parts of the Rift Valley region would support President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.

Former Subukia MP, Koigi wa Wamwere, said President Ruto was “still dangling ethnic card to woe voters to his side, just as former President Moi used to do.”

The former lawmaker said President Ruto’s working relationship with Odinga and the squabbles among leaders in the Mt Kenya region “are part of a wider scheme by Ruto to sustain himself in power through the policy of divide and rule.”

Wamwere, who has been vocal about negative ethnicity, said the colonial government had attempted to divide communities in the Mt Kenya region on an ethnic basis, but it did not succeed.

“We are not in another era and President Ruto is still dangling the ethnic card on Mt Kenya region leaders, the Nyanza leaders, and Western Kenya leaders. The appointment of a running mate based on ethnic card rather than merit and competency will be useless to Kenya,” Wamwere added.