The Ichaweri handshake that may signal dawn of a new political era

President William Ruto’s recent meeting with his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, has sparked speculation about potential changes in government and Ruto’s re-election strategy for 2027.

Supporters of the Kenya Kwanza administration and its allies view the meeting as a positive development, while opponents, such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, have dismissed it as inconsequential.

Some analysts argue that the meeting, although unexpected, was likely to happen eventually due to the country’s current political climate.

This meeting followed Gachagua’s impeachment as deputy president and occurred just months after the destabilizing Generation Z protests.

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It is said that the personalities, including influential business people and former politicians who served in the Uhuru administration, had earlier snubbed Ruto’s overtures to have them join his administration and assist him in stabilising the country being ravaged by socio-economic problems.

Some of those approached by Ruto had perceived the idea of joining his administration as a poisoned chalice due to mounting rebellion in the Mt Kenya region, and feared getting caught up in the political backlash against the Ruto administration.

Most of the professionals and politicians approached by Ruto had previously served in both Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta administrations.

A number of them were mentioned in a section of media as being part of the technocrats President Ruto is seeking to appoint to his administration in his bid to stem its declining fortunes.

There was also a feeling that by reaching out to Uhuru’s allies, the Kenya Kwanza coalition was suggesting that it lacked capacity, expertise and ability to govern the country.

However, the personalities felt that the president, in his bid to tap top technocrats from Mt Kenya, was being mischievous by by-passing Uhuru, regarded as the region’s kingpin, and that the move was aimed at dividing and arm-twisting leaders.

However, key political and business personalities from the Mt Kenya region agreed that efforts should be made to stabilise the government before the 2027 elections rather than allowing the country to plunge into anarchy.

Sources confided in The Sunday Standard that the reasoning went along the lines that “where one is confronted with choices, you choose the lesser evil”.

To Uhuru’s allies, the question was simple: Leave the administration to collapse and plunge the country into a crisis, or salvage it ahead of the 2027 decisive elections to vote it out?

One of the sources said the radicalisation of people in Mt Kenya region, where anger against the government has been mounting, does not augur well for the country, as anybody associating with the State was branded as a traitor.

“The State is bigger than an individual, and responsible citizens must render their talents and expertise for the general welfare of their country and its people,” the source added.

He said; “It would be foolhardy for people in the grassroots to continue calling on the government to reform health and education sectors and restructure the punitive tax regime and then continue branding anybody called upon to assist in such a venture as a traitor.”

A political pundit argues that Ruto’s decision to seek an audience with Uhuru was influenced by two factors: the Mt Kenya question and country’s dire socio-economic situation that was threatening to spiral out of control.

He opined that Ruto could not fight two political foes in the Mt Kenya region: Uhuru and the impeached Deputy President

The president realised that the mounting socio-economic problems, if not well addressed, could snowball into a significant political issue, threatening the country’s stability, the analyst said.

However, sources close to former president Uhuru Kenyatta said there was no looming political alliance between him and President Ruto

“Uhuru cannot engage in amorphous political alliances aimed at serving the interests of individuals. Nevertheless, the former president is concerned about the direction the country is taking and has been keenly following the happenings at the economic and political fronts,” said the source, who served in Uhuru’s Cabinet.

He added that the former president could only engage in political pacts formed after consultations with stakeholders in the Mount Kenya region.

“Before he made the decision to meet Ruto, the former president consulted widely. Ahead of the 2013 UhuRuto pact, the former president did likewise. He also consulted widely before endorsing Raila as Azimio’s presidential candidate. It’s cheap political talk to insinuate that there is an alliance between President Ruto and Uhuru,” the source added.

This was amplified on Friday by Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, who played down the recent meeting between President Ruto and his predecessor.

Kioni asked Kenyans not to “misinterpret” the talks as an endorsement of Ruto’s current administration. “We have decided as people from the mountain, we will be united. We will be with citizens. Uhuru had warned us against Ruto. That (meeting) doesn’t mean he is with Ruto,” claimed Kioni.

A former Chief Administration Secretary (CAS) Lawrence Karanja, a lawyer, told The Sunday Standard that by law, the former president was expected to be consultative and advise the government and people.

He said that the provisions of the Presidential Retirement Benefits Act clearly defined the role of the retired president and that Kenyans should stop reading between the lines whenever Mr Kenyatta is seen consulting with President Ruto.

“On the face value, there is nothing unusual for President Ruto to consult the former president on matters of national interest, especially when his administration is faced with mounting challenges,” said Karanja.

But how important is this meeting for the president’s political future and the nation? Political analysts suggest that the meeting will impact the country’s governance structure.

Sources privy to the meeting informed The Sunday Standard that the two leaders’ discussions focused on critical governance issues, hinting that a mini-Cabinet reshuffle may be imminent. These sources further indicated that this reshuffle could involve several Uhuru allies joining the Kenya Kwanza administration.

A key ally of President Ruto noted that consolidating several state departments may reduce the number of principal secretary positions to 40.

This will likely result in eight Principal Secretaries being appointed from Uhuru’s camp, another eight from Raila Odinga’s side, alongside at least 14 positions for Ruto’s supporters. Leadership shifts are anticipated in the Health, Agriculture and ICT ministries, as well as in the Cabinet positions for the Interior and Foreign Affairs.

Reliable sources suggest that Uhuru is particularly interested in placing his allies in crucial positions within the National Treasury, ICT and Health ministries. While Ruto is hesitant to make changes in the National Treasury, he is more open to adjustments in the Health ministry and is inclined to appoint one of Uhuru’s allies to the ICT docket.

Regarding the potential appointment of Uhuru’s brother, Muhoho Kenyatta, to a government position, sources say that Ruto prefers nominating Kristina Pratt, Uhuru’s sister, instead.

Former Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Murithi and former Health CS Mutahi Kagwe are expected to soon join the government. A political strategist, Dr Julius Kariuki, says that although the president was free to hire persons with the ability and expertise to run the government, it was incumbent upon him to give them a free hand to run their dockets.

“The Ruto administration has been a one-person show. All decisions are made by the president, who micromanages ministries. No technocrat can be effective in such an environment,” added Dr Kariuki.

Kariuki said that the phenomenon of people heckling the president and other senior government officers was worrying and a harbinger for socio-economic and political crises.

“By meeting former President Uhuru Kenyatta, President Ruto sent a statement that there was a challenge in governing the country and he was ready to seek help from someone with experience and skills,” added Kariuki.

“The president has humbled himself and gone to engage with a person whom he vilified during the 2022 campaign period as his administration is running downhill and could soon landed in a ditch.”

A former MP for Ndaragwa, Mwangi Gichuki, observed that Uhuru could not enter into a political pact with Ruto before engaging Mt Kenya residents. “I have worked with the former president, and I know him as a person who cannot be swayed into political marriages without first engaging his people,” said Gichuki.

The former lawmaker said that the Ruto administration had failed to engage people with the skills and expertise required to manage a complex entity like government.

“It is not enough for the president to tell Kenyans that he has included a 28-year-old youth in his administration. It would be best to have people with solid and impeccable leadership skills to run a complex government,” said Gichuki.

The former MP added that no technocrat will excel if the president continues to run the show and pull strings from the centre.

Gichuki added that the president must also commit to effectively fight corruption and disengage from his allies, whom he said were at the centre of mega-scandals.