ODM succession war intensifies as Orengo tipped to take Raila's crown

 

Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s exit from the local political scene is already shaking up ODM, amid a tussle for the party’s leadership. 

Various forces are gearing up to steer the party in Raila’s absence, with plans afoot to install an acting party leader as the opposition veteran seeks the African Union Commission chairperson position. 

Weeks ago, ODM made leadership changes, announcing three deputy party leaders - Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Governors Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir (Mombasa) and Simba Arati (Kisii). 

ODM constitution stipulates that the deputy party leader holds fort in the absence of the party leader and the decision to name three leaders for the position is causing confusing as to who will take over.

Faced with such a dilemma, months ago, Raila declared that his then deputies, Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega), were fit to step in his shoes as he offered advice from the sidelines. 

But even then, there was talk of establishing a council of elders comprising of veteran politicians to steer the party under an acting leader in plans to have Raila secure his role as ODM chief. 

The opposition chief is expected to handpick his successor and will likely slight his deputies, a move that political risk analyst Dismas Mokua warns could lead to ODM’s disintegration, and instead proposes elections “to boost Raila’s democratic credentials.

“Given the high stakes in the Kenyan political space and that Mr Odinga is the glue holding ODM, the probability of Mr Odinga handpicking a leader is almost 100 per cent. Mr Odinga will therefore create an environment where the new leadership will be dancing to his tune,” said Mokua.

Sources told the Sunday Standard of a push to have a veteran act as ODM party leader as Raila takes a back seat, a move that would scuttle Osotsi, Arati and Nassir’s claim to the throne. 

Veteran leaders tipped to take over include Governors James Orengo (Siaya) and Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), who formerly served as secretary general, and Amos Wako, who sits on the party’s board of trustees. 

At 73, Orengo is the youngest of the three who are Raila’s agemates and is touted as the former premier’s heir apparent in ODM.

Often been slighted

Some concerns having three centres of power could threaten ODM’s survival, with the vicious struggle between Joho and Oparanya serving as an example. 

The three deputies have already started popularising their leadership, attending functions together as they move to assure the masses that ODM would live on even if Raila were to bag the AUC seat in February next year.

Embakasi East lawmaker Babu Owino has also expressed interest in succeeding Raila but has often been slighted, keeping him further behind in the succession line.

The general feeling by many, a source said, was that ODM needed an experienced hand to steer it. The party is in no short supply of such persons, as Raila has said several times on his succession.

Mokua argued that Raila should not hand over the party leadership “to members of his kitchen cabinet, but instead allow ODM leadership that largely remains latent to morph to kinetic status.”

“The next leader must demonstrate capacity and competence. Age, experience or tenure should not be key considerations. There is no evidence to suggest that experience and age as parameters have superior outcomes,” he said.

Orengo is favoured for his loyalty to Raila, having served thrice as his lawyer during the 2013, 2017 and 2022 presidential petitions.

“He has stood with Baba at his lowest and deserves to take up the leadership of ODM,” said a source who sought anonymity owing to the sensitivity of the succession debate.

“The next leader will be appointed by Baba. He is best placed to answer your question. This is a matter far beyond my province,” Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi said in response to whether there were plans to install Orengo.

Orengo’s ability to speak truth to power, often cautioning his leader against political blunders, is also seen as a plus. The governor recently warned that entering into an unstructured partnership with President William Ruto’s government would expose ODM and was akin to betrayal of Generation Z and Millennials, who had protested Ruto’s tax policies.

He raised similar concerns about the unconstitutionality of the Building Bridges Initiative, the constitutional amendment push, a result of Raila’s handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018. 

Further, lawmakers from the ODM leader’s Nyanza backyard argue that the party draws most of its support from the region and insist its leadership should be retained by Luo Nyanza. In recent changes, ODM named Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga as its chairperson, a move aimed at containing pressure from Nyanza lawmakers. 

Wanga has ambitions for the presidency and is already featuring as a possible running mate to Ruto in the 2027 presidential contest if the latter drops Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

University lecturer Timothy Onduru argued that Wanga was better placed to lead the party given Orengo’s backseat approach to ODM’s leadership. “Wanga’s star is rising and she has been very active in the party’s affairs. I see her playing a more critical role than Orengo, who has always been at the back,” said Dr Onduru, who teaches history at Moi University.

“Recently, we saw Raila was closer to (Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo) Wandayi than his longtime ally, Orengo,” he added.

Raila’s and Orengo’s journey dates back to the late 1980s and early 1990s when they were part of the opposition’s Young Turks in the second liberation struggle.

Both were groomed by Raila’s father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, with the governor finding immense favour in the eyes of Kenya’s founding vice president. Initially united within Ford, later Ford Kenya, they would chart separate paths before reuniting. 

They have been together in the last three elections, with Raila playing a significant role in having Orengo elected senator, twice, and governor. 

Always playing support cast, the governor could take over ODM, even as Raila manages his succession in Azimio, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka increasingly looking like the heir apparent.