Post-Raila reality: ODM fights for survival as Ruto plots Cabinet reshuffle

A looming Cabinet reshuffle, a crisis meeting of the ODM party, and the silence of the Opposition continue to shape Kenya’s political landscape following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Raila’s absence has sparked intense political manoeuvring across the divide, triggering realignments and the forging of new alliances as parties rush to adapt to the “post-Raila reality.”

A crisis meeting held on Monday by the ODM party, convened to determine its political direction amid growing internal tensions, was the latest in a series of developments that could influence the outcome of the 2027 General Election.

The Central Committee meeting, chaired by Senator Oburu Oginga — who was appointed interim party leader shortly after Raila’s death — resolved that ODM would continue its cooperation with UDA under the broad-based government until 2027.

In a statement issued by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, the committee acknowledged that the post-Raila period would be challenging but urged members to remain united.

“We commit here in unison, as we did during the funeral, that we will not be responsible for any breakup in the party or any unnecessary political turbulence that runs counter to Jakom’s dream,” said Sifuna.

The meeting sought to address the increasingly strained relations between rival factions within the party. At the heart of the divisions is whether to support President William Ruto’s re-election bid — and who should succeed Raila as the Luo political kingpin.

The most recent display of infighting came last weekend, when a section of ODM leaders cautioned against the scramble for the Luo community’s political leadership following Raila’s death.

The leaders, who gathered on Friday at Raila’s Opoda Farm home in Bondo, maintained that there was no leadership vacuum to be filled.

Raila successor

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga criticised unnamed party members for engaging in divisive politics, insisting that the community did not require a “hurried” succession process.

“The leadership of Luo Nyanza has no vacuum because once Dr Oburu has taken over the mantle of party leadership, he is the same person who will guide the Luo community going forward,” she said.

Ruaraka MP T.J. Kajwang’, in remarks seemingly directed at Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, warned younger politicians against seeking to position themselves as Raila’s successors for personal gain.

“Our father Raila has left us in good hands. I can see the chairman of the Luo Council of Elders here, and I know we shall continue to speak with one voice,” said Kajwang’.

The trading of barbs began soon after Raila’s death. During his funeral in Bondo, ODM politicians clashed over the former Prime Minister’s alleged final position regarding cooperation with President Ruto.

Ruto sympathisers, including National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, Wanga, and Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, claimed that Raila had urged them to work with the Ruto administration.

However, another faction — led by Sifuna and Babu Owino — opposes backing Ruto’s re-election and is keen to ensure that ODM fields its own presidential candidate in 2027.

Political analyst Barack Muluka believes ODM’s survival beyond Raila depends on moving past personality-driven politics.

“Before his demise, Raila Odinga was the party — he was the ideology, the rallying call, the central figure within the larger movement. The moment of truth is now here. This is the time to go back to the delegates across the country if ODM is to survive,” he observed.

Meanwhile, the impending Cabinet reshuffle underscores President Ruto’s continued political manoeuvres aimed at securing re-election in 2027. His recent efforts to build new alliances, and his apparent attempt to ‘inherit’ ODM, suggest a strategy to capture Raila’s traditional support base at all costs.

ODM takeover

To bolster his chances, Ruto has reportedly engineered the sidelining of dissenting voices within ODM who might undermine his coalition-building efforts ahead of the polls.

During Raila’s burial, Ruto declared that he would not allow anyone to destroy the ODM party, a statement that fuelled speculation about his possible plans to take over or merge ODM with UDA.

Sources privy to the developments told The Standard that Ruto is finalising a list of proposed changes, with a Cabinet reshuffle expected soon. In the coming days, he is set to reconstitute his Cabinet to include new faces from the Rift Valley, Lower Eastern and Western regions.

Top on the list of expected beneficiaries is former ruling party Kanu. Following party chairman Gideon Moi’s new working relationship with President Ruto, Kanu is reportedly set to receive a Cabinet slot and some Principal Secretary positions.

Strong institutions

Also tipped for inclusion in the new line-up is a member of Raila’s family. Speculation is rife that Winnie Odinga, currently serving as a legislator in the East African Legislative Assembly, may be joining government.

Franklin Mukwanja, Executive Director of the Centre for Multi-Party Democracy, emphasised that a strong democracy requires strong political parties. He noted that while shifting alliances are typical in evolving democracies, parties must remain rooted in ideology rather than self-interest.

“Strong politics cannot grow from broken political parties. The challenge we face is that strong parties are built on strong institutions, not just strong individuals. ODM is a good example of a party built around one man. If we believe political parties are vehicles of democracy, then as Kenyans, we must become the mechanics who sustain them — not mere passengers,” Mukwanja said.