Uncertainty hits farms as climate shifts, weather patterns evolve

Expert predictions that there would be a deviation from normal weather patterns between January and March have come to pass. In previous years, cooler areas of Kenya marked the New Year with milder temperatures, while warmer regions experienced hotter conditions. This year, however, the climate reversed.

Lucy Ochieng Lukwa, a farmer from Kakamega, confirms this shift in weather patterns. She explains that previous Januaries were always sunny until the planting season in mid-February. However, in 2025, heavy rains fell in Ikolomani, Kakamega, in January.

Lukwa, a committed mixed farmer, now waits in uncertainty, as Ikolomani has been hot, windy, and dusty since February 5. “I wonder what the weather holds next,” she pondered.

Similarly, residents of Kericho are also uncertain about upcoming weather changes. Dr Barnard Ndiewo, a lecturer at Highlands University, fears that food and cash crop farming, along with other rain-fed activities, could be severely impacted by irregular rainfall. “Since late January, there has been unusual warmth,” Dr Ndiewo lamented.

The erratic weather has also caused difficulties for subsistence farmers in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin. Reflecting on the 1997 El Niño rains, which led to a second planting season, Edwin Omolo Aremo notes that many farmers in Usigu, Siaya County, dry-planted crops during the sunny season of August in preparation for a second planting season.

“Things did not go as expected. We faced huge losses as most crops got stunted, and others barely got off the ground,” said Jennifer Okello from Ururi village.

Undeterred by the misadventures of August, she cleared and ploughed a parcel of land in preparation for the February planting season. “With fingers crossed, I waited for the rains from 20th February in vain,” she said. “That said, I’m still hopeful. The sky is filled with dark clouds and thunderstorms. We are still waiting to plant during the long rains in April,” she added.

Like Jennifer, many other farmers also tilled their land, but chose not to dry-plant.

Not discouraged by last August’s dry spell, some farmers are thinking outside the box to cope with the erratic weather. “Since tomatoes often wilt during the rainy season, I decided to try planting them in the dry season and I was amazed when I reaped handsomely. I am now waiting for my hardy cassava and millet to mature in Ururi,” boasted Omondi Odewo.

Like Odewo, other farmers in Usigu dry-planted maize from October through to rainy December and celebrated a good harvest.

Aremo from Siaya notes that despite their miscalculation in the second planting season last August, the unexpected but welcome rains on January 30 revitalised Lake Victoria Basin farmers. “Though the January 30, downpour spurred farm clearing, I wish the rains had extended through February,” Aremo said.

He laments that despite dry weather causing havoc on some Siaya farms, areas near Domion Farms in Nyamboyo and Shamba are flooded. “Any crops grown in the marshes are now underwater,” Aremo said, fearing food insecurity in Siaya this year.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast drier-than-usual conditions for the Lake Victoria Basin. “We are staring at a stark dry season,” Aremo said, to which Brian Wuod Anyango concurred, “It only drizzled on January 30,” he recalled.

Similarly, other areas, including parts of North Eastern, North Western, the Coast, Rift Valley, and Eastern Kenya, are expected to experience temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius.

According to NASA’s annual report, the high temperatures are attributed to warming oceans. “Warmer oceans increase evaporation, which either generates heavy rains or droughts,” the report states. Once released into the atmosphere, higher temperatures enhance evaporation, leading to increased greenhouse gases, which dry soil and vegetation, making life difficult on barren land with scarce water.

Water scarcity has become a pressing issue, not only in arid northern Kenya but also in the Lake Victoria Basin. A Planet Action survey in both regions revealed that a 20-litre jerrycan of water now costs at least Sh10, and domestic livestock must travel long distances in search of water and pasture.

Having experienced this before, it is hoped that such long walks won’t lead to conflict.

Dr Mohamud Hashir Ali, an environmental management lecturer at Garissa University, pointed out that evaporation contributes to heat stress, which impedes pollination and plant growth. He explained that plant stagnation leads to food insecurity, making sustainable water harvesting during devastating flash floods essential to mitigate recurring droughts and dry spells.

“Enhancing the bioeconomy and sustainable water harvesting combats food and nutrition insecurity,” Dr Ali said, adding that these practices go hand-in-hand with reforestation and agroforestry.

Amos Ogosiah reminisces about the hand-dug communal village pans, such as Koduol and Kokwera in Yimbo, Siaya, from the 1960s. “Why not now?” he posed.

The KMD also projects near- and above-average rainfall from March to May in the Lake Victoria Basin. However, as usual, the weatherman predicts depressed rains and scorching heat for northeast and northwest Kenya. “The rains haven’t arrived by early March, but the dark clouds above bring hope in the Lake Victoria Basin,” Ogosiah prayed.

The lack of rain brings health risks, such as dehydration and related ailments. Homa Bay Hospital physician Robert Ouko has noted an increase in self-diagnosis and self-medication. “Many people suffer from kidney and respiratory illnesses, aggravated by over-the-counter antibiotics, which can lead to overdose, underdose, and resistance,” he cautioned.

Public health officers also advise residents to be mindful of the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heatstroke during hot weather. “Ensure adequate ventilation and visit health clinics if you experience high fever, stiff neck, or heat-related ailments, such as measles or heat rash,” said David Ombogo from Seme, Lake Victoria Basin.

“The high temperatures can also affect the transmission of waterborne diseases, such as malaria, cholera, and dengue fever in northeast and northwest Kenya.”

While manual labourers blame the heat for slowing them down, students in these areas also struggle to concentrate in class. “Some learners have dropped out of school because they cannot concentrate in class,” said a United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) official in Garissa.

Unicef adds that more than 1.7 million children in Somalia face severe malnutrition.

Sadly, fanning the flames of environmental degradation, Kenya’s 61.4 per cent land degradation rate, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), remains rampant in the arid areas. “Thanks to the warmer-than-usual climatic conditions, environmental degradation’s excessive heat has forced reptiles to seek refuge in cooler places, including people’s homes,” observed Kenneth Ogosiah in Ururi, Siaya.

Despite the fragile vulnerability of arid land, rural poverty forces many people to rely on the land’s resources. “Deforestation, quarrying, bushfires, charcoal burning, and other self-inflicted harm damage the ecosystem’s biodiversity,” he said.

Having experienced this before, Hassan Sheikh Ali, CEO of the Hirola Arawlale Homeland Trust, noted: “Warmer temperatures reduce surface water, further drying the soil and vegetation, especially in water-scarce arid lands. This impacts residents, animals, wildlife, and plants alike.”

Dr Mohamud Hashir Ali, the Garissa University environmental management lecturer, cited NASA’s reports, noting that 2024 was the hottest year since weather reporting began in 1880.

The residents of the Lake Victoria Basin pray that the highly anticipated April 2025 long rains won’t be curtailed by the saying: “as changeable as the weather,” which could bring even hotter conditions than the already scorching 2024 landscape.

Hashir submits that the erratic weather pattern presents a six-million-dollar challenge for people in the affected regions to tackle.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre has predicted that the Horn of Africa, with its arid and unpredictable weather patterns, will experience fewer rains in the highly anticipated long rain season.

Despite such skepticism, residents in northern Kenya and the Horn of Africa have a secret weapon in store. “We are relying on Rob Dhon (rain prayers) for a heavy downpour to disprove the IGAD weatherman,” said Ahmed Muktar in Wajir.

However, Muktar laments that roads are often rendered nearly impassable by flash floods, which create deep holes during the drought season.

Prayers for rain aside, the million-dollar question remains: Will 2025 be hotter than 2024?

Looking at the NASA report and considering both past and present trends, it remains anyone’s guess whether 2025 will bring hotter conditions than 2024.