African elections often lack a crucial component: an opposition

Multiple African presidents are finding ways to block opposition candidates from running against them, turning elections into foregone conclusions  that risk provoking violent unrest and undermining faith in democracy.

Tanzania's elections descended into violence on Wednesday as voters rebelled against the lack of choice, with the two serious rivals to President Samia Suluhu Hassan either jailed or barred from running.

A day earlier, Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara won a fourth term with almost 90 percent of the vote after his two main opponents were similarly excluded.

In Cameroon, 92-year-old Paul Biya, the world's oldest head of state, secured re-election for an eighth term this month, helped by the fact that his strongest challenger was barred from standing by the constitutional court.

There has been a decline in democracy worldwide in recent decades, with authoritarians finding inventive ways to block opponents everywhere from Asia to Europe to the Americas.

But it has been a striking trend in sub-Saharan Africa, showing "a crisis of democratic governance on the continent", said Heritier Brilland Ndakpanga, of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.

2024 was considered a banner year for African democracy, with opposition parties winning power in Ghana, Botswana, Mauritius and Senegal.

But those were always among the continent's most democratic countries, and the results may have encouraged other governments to take no chances at the ballot box.

Supposedly independent electoral bodies are often weaponised against the opposition, say analysts.

The running of elections is "in the hands not just of the government... but its most intransigent parts", said Stephane Akoa, political scientist in Cameroon, bemoaning a "perversion of the system" in his country.

In Central African Republic, the opposition is boycotting polls in December, saying the election body is not independent.

Similar complaints by Tanzania's opposition were the reason it was barred from taking part in this week's vote, with its leader, Tundu Lissu, jailed on treason charges for calling for electoral reforms.

Changing world order

Behind the scenes are political and business elites that want to ensure their interests are not challenged, but are now spooked by a young generation demanding better governance and jobs.

So-called Gen Z protests have drawn violent crackdowns in Kenya, and toppled the Madagascar government this month, leading to a military takeover.

"People are becoming harder to control and creating more effective opposition movements, and governments are responding with the mechanism they've used historically, which is repression," said Nic Cheeseman, an African elections expert at the University of Birmingham.

Meanwhile, there is less and less pressure from outside, as new international partners make their presence felt in Africa, notably China, Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

"African governments have alternatives in 2025," said Mandipa Ndlovu, researcher with Leiden University's African Studies Centre.

"Geopolitical competition is eroding the rule of law. Democracy is not a prerequisite for working with China or Russia."

As for the United States, President Donald Trump's administration has taken a more transactional approach to diplomacy, telling its embassies to rein in criticism of elections.

"You're not going to get pushback at all from the US, which historically has been one of the most outspoken when it comes to elections," said Cheeseman, adding that US foreign-aid cuts have also removed support to pro-democracy groups.

New generation

All this makes for a volatile atmosphere.

Tanzanians have long been seen as one of Africa's most docile populations, so the eruption of violence this week came as a shock to many.

"Gen Z will save us all," said Ndlovu. "They are coming through and saying this is ridiculous, demanding that their governments provide jobs and proper governance.

"But if we can't fix the institutions, nothing will change."

That can require a major crisis, such as Kenya saw in 2007 and 2008, when a disputed election took the country to the brink of civil war.

That scared the elites into reforms and a new democratic constitution that has largely kept elections free and fair.

"But big protests around elections are probably not enough on their own to get regimes and the elite to change course," said Cheeseman.

"What worries me is that in many countries, populations are becoming increasingly demanding and governments are becoming increasingly repressive."