Spirit of Ruto's China trip amid Trump tariffs and need for caution

President William Ruto’s state visit to China in the background of a raging trade war between the Asian giant and the US is a bold statement that puts to test Kenya’s non-alignment foreign policy against its economic interests.

Political analysts think the invitation is strategic because Beijing appears to be capitalising on the damage expected from President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs against many countries, including Kenya.

It also comes when Kenya is mulling joining the BRICS countries, an informal group led by Russia and China that is advancing multilateral cooperation in different fields.

Last year, President Ruto asked for China’s backing to join the group that also includes South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt when he met LI XI, a top Chinese official, in Nairobi.

Yesterday, the President held talks with President Xi Jinping to discuss sustainable development centred on economic transformation and cooperation in trade and investment. He will also inaugurate the Kenya Tea Holding Centre in Fujian Province.

Ruto on Wednesday delivered a keynote address at the Peking University, whose core message was of making Nairobi a China ="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001517049/ruto-takes-kenyas-wishlist-to-beijing-as-trade-winds-shift">investment destination hub< for big businesses.

The President is not just looking at the visit as a diplomatic endeavour but also aims to make deals for mega infrastructure projects.

Trump’s disruption

Projects such as rural electrification and power grid transmission line expansion are key, even as Ruto’s delegation looks to infusing green technologies such as geothermal and solar power in the national power grid.

Since taking office in January, President Trump has rubbed up many countries the wrong way by pushing for a more transactional diplomatic engagement centered on trade. China has especially been slapped with heavy tariffs.

Geopolitically, however, Kenya will be expected to strike a delicate balancing act of maintaining its partnership with America’s global leadership and its continued influence on regional interests, especially the situation in Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, president of the Africa Policy Institute, thinks Kenya will deal with China based on respect for a practical system that has so far brought rapid development in China and in many African countries.

That contrasts with demands by the US and other Western countries that peg their relationship, ="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001517058/ruto-eyes-infrastructure-talks-during-china-visit">multilateral and bilateral support< on political ideology, western values and domineering in diplomatic ties that come with conditions for donor support to be released.

It is also important for Kenya to build a long term trust with China, a country that was the first to open a diplomatic mission in Nairobi, especially now that it has offered to help develop green energy, agricultural and mega infrastructural projects.

Lessons from Kibaki

But President Ruto’s administration still has to carefully navigate the country’s foreign policy, an area that the Kenya Kwanza government appears to be performing poorly compared to what President Mwai Kibaki did after taking over from President Daniel arap Moi, who had also began developing a close relationship with China.

Last year, Ruto clarified that Kenya’s foreign policy would be anchored on an undivided relationship with both the US and China. He spoke during another high profile State visit when then President Joe Biden honoured him with a State dinner.

Drawing parallels with principles that guided Kibaki’s foreign policy, Kagwanja argues that unlike the current administration, the third President ideologically believed that the country needed a lean non-interventionist developmental state when he took over.

To successfully steer the government and pull people out of poverty, he identified the country with the Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and China, which had already managed to take themselves out of poverty.

He also created a policy driven by the Vision 2030 and only adopted policies of other nations that were beneficial to the Kenyan people. To achieve that, he needed very competent occupants of public offices.

“Be it in appointing politicians or envoys, he believed strongly in the idea of meritocracy in our diplomacy without which he could not have succeeded. Kibaki believed that without people with technical and scientific knowledge we cannot go far,” says Kagwanja.

Thirdly, he based his foreign policy on national interest and asked the National Security Council to define clearly what the country’s top priorities were in pursuit for economic development.

He then advocated for a foreign policy propelled by Kenyan nationalism, Pan Africanism and principles of human dignity.

The foreign policy was therefore subordinated by the interests of the entire Kenyan population as opposed to deals that aimed at profiteering individuals, foreign agents, oligarchs and foreign business empires.

Kagwanja disagrees with analysts who think Kibaki bandoned the West and adopted a look East policy, arguing that like Ruto, he also had a multi-directional approach. He was, however, more focused with the four-pronged orientation, first placing Kenya at the centre of all diplomatic engagements.

“Kibaki said Kenya is an African state guided by African ideology. Our interests on the African continent came first before any other. He insisted that we are Afrocentric,” says Kagwanja.

He then re-looked West, arguing that Kenya could not abandon its traditional relationship with Western countries but in doing so, the country did not have to subordinate that relationship for its national interests. And so in addition to the High Commission in London, he opened a diplomatic mission in Dublin.

“Critics asked, why do we have two embassies in the UK? Kibaki said it was because Dublin was at the time the European Union capital of Information Communication Technology that was driving rapid growth and development in all growing economies,” argues Kagwanja.

SGR billions

With flourishing technology, the country became a leading digital economy in the region and on the continent. New innovations like the M-Pesa emerged.

He also urged Kenyans to look East and reached out to South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, among other countries, but more primarily to China because it was a fast-emerging economic powerhouse with resources to tap into for financing infrastructural development.

It is that relationship that his successor President Uhuru Kenyatta used to develop perhaps the largest road network in the country since independence and the Standard Gauge Railway that president Ruto is now seeking more money from China to extend.

“I was part of the delegation that went to New York in 2006 with President Kibaki to ask for money from the US to build a new railway and they refused. The proposal put before the World Bank by Kibaki’s team was rejected. They said we refurbish the old line and privatise it,” recalls Kagwanja.

Upon investing a lot of money into the project, the railway essentially ground to a halt, forcing the country to move 95 per cent of cargo from Mombasa to Uganda by road with serious financial consequences because of the bad roads.

Kibaki then moved to China with a singular plan of opening up roads, railways, ports and all transport arteries that ="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/business/article/2001516921/inside-rutos-high-stakes-china-visit-amid-raging-global-trade-war">spurred the economy<. He did not just look East, he also looked South and went Brazil to source for Embraer Jets for Kenya Airways and agricultural machinery.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo, who is also a student of international relations, is happy that President Ruto has already signed a Sh130 billion loan to fund the refurbishing of two key hotels in Nairobi that would be leased to Chinese investors.

“I must congratulate the President for urging us to resist the temptation of being caught in geopolitical fights between China and the US, because getting involved will slacken progress in our international diplomacy,” says Orogo.

He is, however, concerned about the President is incurring more debt when the World Bank and IMF have already raised a red flag over the country overshooting its debt ceiling.

Kagwanja notes that despite its enormous might, China, unlike other members of the exclusive G7 club, is open to expansion of trade and investment based on mutual respects for both countries.

“We should not just simply look at diplomatic endeavour as an opportunity for clinching quick deals, because China is already committed to developing mega infrastructure projects on the African continent. We also have to leverage on the political and socio-cultural relationships.”