Kenya's exports to the US grow as countries' struggle with tariffs

Latest report by a global trade body shows that while developing economies struggled to frontload their exports to beat the August 1, tariff deadline, the value of Kenya’s exports to the United States actually increased by 11 per cent in the first half of the year compared to 2024.

The report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released on September 1, says frontloading patterns in the US were visible in the first half of the year.

The global trade update states that imports surged in the first quarter, only to drop sharply in the second.

It adds that the effect was most pronounced in the developed countries, suggesting that importers in these nations were able to anticipate and act ahead of tariff deadlines.

Unctad says in contrast, developing countries showed a more muted frontloading response, while least developed countries exhibited little to no such pattern.

“This may reflect constraints such as shorter-term contracts or limited productive capacity, which prevented them from ramping up exports in advance,” the document says. “Least developed countries exports did rise in Q2 of 2025, but by then, many tariffs had already taken effect.”

With reference to this report, however, Kenya has been an outlier as exports to the US increased by Sh3.6 billion in that period to Sh37.3 billion, according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

KNBS data released in August shows that in the same period in 2024, Kenya exported Sh33.7 billion to the US.

March, April and May were the months Kenyan exporters shipped more to the US compared to the same months last year.

Unctad explains that when tariffs are expected to rise but their implementation date remains unclear, importers often react preemptively by accelerating shipments, ‘front-loading’ goods to stockpile inventory before higher tariffs take effect.

“Others shift from slower and cheaper sea freight to faster, though more expensive, air cargo—an option most feasible for high-value, low-volume products,” says Unctad.

The trade body adds that while these adjustments can buy time, they also introduce new costs and distortions into global trade flows.  As a result, small firms, particularly those in developing and least developed countries, face greater challenges in adapting.

At the same time, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has urged American investors to venture into large-scale farming and agro-processing in Kenya, especially in wheat, yellow maize, and rice.

Kagwe said such investments could shift Kenya from being a net importer to an exporter of key staples, driving food security and trade competitiveness while turning the country into a regional breadbasket.

He said his tour to the US opened new doors for Kenya’s agricultural exports, financing, and large-scale investment partnerships, with part of his engagement being a high-level meeting with the United States Africa Trade Desk (USATD) CEO Gavin Van Der Burgh.

The CS secured a commitment for Kenyan agricultural products to enter more U.S. retail markets, ensuring visibility on store shelves and stronger demand for Kenyan produce.

“USATD pledged financing support for Kenyan exporters, enabling them to sustain the large export volumes required by expanded retail distribution,” read a statement from the Ministry. The CS emphasised that this financial backing is vital to stabilise supply chains and empower exporters to scale up.

Kagwe also held talks with Tara Nathan, Executive Vice President of Mastercard, at the Kenya Consulate, where discussions centered on enabling farmers to register as businesses and gain access to credit.

To support this, Kenya and Mastercard will be seeking to explore building a centralised Agriculture Information and Resource Centre (AIRC) that will consolidate farmers' data, boost transparency, and unlock tailored financial solutions for producers.

Kenya’s agricultural colleges are also set to benefit from new academic and research ties.

A collaboration with South Carolina State University 1890 Research and Extension will provide training, knowledge exchange, and research on improved crop breeds and extension services, with Kagwe saying that the partnership will strengthen Kenya’s capacity to produce resilient crops and build a skilled workforce for the agriculture sector.

The Ministry also witnessed a signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KNCCI) and the South Carolina African American Chamber of Commerce (SCAACC), representing more than 15,000 businesses.

The agreement sets the stage for increased trade, investment linkages, and business collaboration between the two regions.