Why Kenya's manpower is turning to US lottery
Business
By
Brian Ngugi
| Oct 21, 2025
Fresh data by the United States government shows that a record number of Kenyans are seeking a route out of poverty and unemployment through the US Diversity Visa lottery, as a deepening economic crisis in the country dims job prospects for millions of young people.
A recently published US State Department’s November 2025 Visa Bulletin shows that 3,949 Kenyans were selected for this year’s much-sought-after “Green Card”, marking a continued sharp upward trend.
The bulletin shows that 4,459 Kenyans were allocated permanent visas under the DV-2025 programme last year, which was a significant jump from the 3,760 selected for the 2024 lottery. The green card, offering permanent US residency, has long been a coveted ticket to economic stability for skilled Kenyans and many Kenyan families.
READ MORE
Shooting of mourners confirms State does not value our lives
Pamoja Chan 2024 LOCs join in mourning Raila Odinga
How Gen Z uprising exposes cracks in Africa's security model
Explained: What Kenya's assumption of COMESA chairmanship means
At least 14 soldiers killed in South Sudan as 'love triangle' turns bloody
KCB Group commits Sh53b to green finance projects
Safaricom banks on innovation as it launches 2025 sustainability report
KMPDU slams governors over remarks on Kiambu infant deaths
IG Kanja orders investigation into CHAN allowance misuse saga
Music mogul Sean 'Diddy' Combs sentenced to more than four years in prison
The surge in applications comes at a critical juncture, with the Kenyan economy grappling with soaring youth unemployment.
Against this backdrop, trends show the US Diversity Visa programme remains a beacon of hope for many Kenyans albeit an uncertain one.
The programme allocates up to 55,000 visas globally each year, though the cap for 2026 has been adjusted to approximately 51,850.
Immigration expert Grace Aurora noted that, while the DV lottery provides a chance for many, it is not a guaranteed path.
In a note to The Standard, she highlighted an alternative for skilled professionals.
“For professionals with strong credentials in areas like health, education, research, or innovation, the EB‑2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) offers a self-petition route to US permanent residency, no job offer or labour certification (PERM) required,” she said.
“As outlined in the Colombo & Hurd EB‑2 NIW guide, applicants must demonstrate that their work has substantial merit, national importance, and that they are well-positioned to carry it out. This is a practical alternative for Kenyan professionals investing in long-term US opportunities without relying on the lottery.” A Bloomberg survey in 2023 found Kenyan immigrants in the US to be among the most “diligent foreign workers.”
Many Kenyans who emigrate to the US hold bachelor’s and advanced degrees, with over a quarter working in the nursing sector, filling critical gaps in the US healthcare system.
This brain drain, however, has a financial upside for Kenya. Remittances from the diaspora, particularly the US, have become a cornerstone of the Kenyan economy and many families, surpassing earnings from key exports like tea and tourism. The United States alone accounts for over 50 per cent of these inflows, which support millions of households and help stabilise the Kenyan shilling.
But this vital lifeline is now showing signs of strain. Recent data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reveals a consecutive monthly drop in remittances, with inflows falling to $410.1 million (Sh55.6 billion) in July 2025.
Analysts link this decline directly to an intensified US immigration crackdown under President Donald Trump, which has created a climate of fear among immigrants, including green card holders.
The implementation of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which introduced a one per cent tax on all cash-based remittances from the US, is seen as a major factor. Experts warn such a tax could significantly reduce the volume of funds sent home by migrants.
This decline complicates President William Ruto’s aggressive campaign to secure one million jobs for Kenyans abroad—a key pillar of his strategy to combat an unemployment crisis where 67 per cent of young people are unemployed.