Food prices set to spiral amid failed rains, inflation woes
Business
By
Brian Ngugi
| Nov 27, 2025
Esther Njeri walks through her smallholder farm in Karati, Naivasha, the cracked earth crunching under her feet.
The withered kale and cabbage seedlings tell a story of another failed season - the October-December "short rains" have barely come, threatening her family's food supply and income for the coming year.
"We planted everything when we saw the first showers," Ms Njeri told The Standard, her voice heavy with resignation.
"Now the sun has burned it all. I don't know how I will feed my family through the dry season, let alone pay school fees."
Njeri's personal crisis reflects a national emergency in the making, according to food security experts.
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The Kenya Meteorological Department confirmed this week in data reviewed by The Standard, that most parts of the country will remain dry through December, with only 15 of 47 counties - including key agricultural regions like Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Western Kenya - receiving normal rainfall in late November.
The data signals trouble for Kenya's food basket regions that produce crucial staples, including maize, wheat and vegetables.
This comes despite farmers' earlier optimism, captured in a September Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey that showed expectations of favourable weather continuing alongside government interventions.
The World Food Programme (WFP) projects that owing to the failed rains, the number of acutely food-insecure Kenyans could surge to 2.12 million by late 2025, reversing recent gains that had seen the figure drop to 1.8 million.
"Malnutrition remains a concern with 742,000 children and 109,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women still requiring treatment," the agency warned.
For households already straining under existing price pressures, the failed rains spell deeper trouble.
Official data shows food prices have surged 8.0 per cent over the past year, with staples leading the climb: sugar prices up 22.6 per cent, sifted maize flour up 16.4 per cent and tomatoes - a crucial ingredient in local diets - skyrocketing 37.3 per cent.
"The 'Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' category alone contributed 2.6 percentage points to our October inflation rate of 4.6 per cent," the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported, highlighting how food costs are dominating household budgets.
WFP has activated its Anticipatory Action plan, providing cash transfers to 64,500 vulnerable households and early warning messages to 460,000 people. However, the agency says it faces severe funding constraints, with a 64 per cent drop in anticipated contributions for 2025 forcing cuts to refugee programmes.
"The suspension of cash-based transfers to over 700,000 refugees and reduction of food rations to as low as 32 per cent of minimum requirements represents the lowest level of assistance ever provided to refugees in Kenya," WFP said in a statement.
The looming food crisis presents a new challenge to President William Ruto's administration, which has made agricultural reform and cost-of-living reduction central to its agenda.
While fertiliser subsidy programmes have shown some success, according to officials, the rain failure exposes the vulnerability of Kenya's food system to climate shocks.
Agricultural economists warn that the price pressure will extend well beyond staple crops. "When food production fails in key growing areas, the effects ripple through urban markets within weeks," said Ian Njoroge, an independent economist.
"We're looking at a difficult first quarter for all Kenyan consumers, not just those in food-insecure regions."