Why Kenyans have nothing to cheer despite drop in unga prices

The country’s overall inflation rate, or the cost-of-living measure, held steady in November, but consumers saw little relief at the dinner table.

This is as sharp price increases for staples like onions and kale offset a welcome drop in the cost of maize flour, official data shows.  

The annual inflation rate was 4.5 per cent in November, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) said Friday, edging down from 4.6 per cent in October.

However, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which carry the heaviest weight in the consumer basket, climbed 7.7 per cent compared to a year earlier. 

This persistent food inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, with the cost of onions (leeks and bulbs) surging 4.9 per cent in a single month and the price of kale (sukuma wiki) rising 2.7 per cent.

Oranges became 2.9 per cent more expensive, and beef with bones saw a 1.5 per cent increase. 

The data presents a mixed picture for consumers. While some essential items became more costly, the price of fortified maize flour fell by 3.8 per cent between October and November, with sifted maize flour dropping 3.2 per cent.

Sugar prices also declined by 1.1 per cent. The price of a 2-kilogram packet of fortified maize flour fell from Sh168.56 in October to Sh162.11 in November. 

Despite the marginal monthly declines for some items, the data confirms that Kenyans remain worse off than a year ago, with the prices of essential goods still sharply elevated.

For instance, while fortified maize flour fell in October, its price was still 6.8 per cent higher than in November 2024.

A 2kg packet of fortified maize flour cost Sh151.77 in November 2024, meaning the price in November 2025, despite its recent drop, was still Sh10.34 higher than it was a year earlier. 

The cost of tomatoes was up a staggering 30.9 per cent year-on-year, onions were up 16.1 per cent, and kale was 18.6 per cent more expensive, significantly eroding household purchasing power. 

"The price increase was primarily driven by a rise in prices of items in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (7.7 per cent); Transport (5.1 per cent), and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels (1.9 per cent) over the one-year period," the KNBS said in its report. 

The transport sector was a significant contributor to inflation, with the cost of country bus and matatu fares for travel between towns jumping 9.1 per cent in November, underscoring the broader cost pressures in the economy. 

A closer look at inflation dynamics revealed a divergence between core and non-core prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy and is often seen as a better gauge of underlying price trends, eased to 2.3 per cent in November from 2.7 per cent the previous month. 

In contrast, non-core inflation, encompassing the more unpredictable food and energy sectors, accelerated to 10.1 per cent.

This indicates that the primary drivers of the high cost of living remain in the essential goods that Kenyans purchase most frequently. 

Despite the slight moderation in the headline figure, the continued steep rise in food costs means the financial strain on households, particularly those with lower incomes, is unlikely to abate in the near term. 

The grim statistics from the KNBS report come just as another food crisis is looming after the failure of the short rains.

Official data shows that the failed season, the October-December "short rains", threatens many families' food supply and income for the coming year. 

The Kenya Meteorological Department confirmed last week, in data reviewed by The Standard, that most parts of the country will remain dry through December, with only 15 of 47 counties - including key agricultural regions like Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Western Kenya - receiving normal rainfall in late November. 

The data signals trouble for Kenya's food basket regions that produce crucial staples, including maize, wheat and vegetables.

This comes despite farmers' earlier optimism, captured in a September Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey that showed expectations of favourable weather continuing alongside government interventions. 

The World Food Programme (WFP) projects that owing to the failed rains, the number of acutely food-insecure Kenyans could surge to 2.12 million by late 2025, reversing recent gains that had seen the figure drop to 1.8 million.

"Malnutrition remains a concern with 742,000 children and 109,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women still requiring treatment," the agency warned. 

For households already straining under existing price pressures, the failed rains spell deeper trouble. 

"The suspension of cash-based transfers to over 700,000 refugees and reduction of food rations to as low as 32 per cent of minimum requirements represents the lowest level of assistance ever provided to refugees in Kenya," WFP said in a statement, highlighting a funding crisis that could exacerbate local food shortages. 

The looming food crisis presents a new challenge to President William Ruto's administration, which has made agricultural reform and cost-of-living reduction central to its agenda.

While fertiliser subsidy programmes have shown some success, according to officials, the rain failure exposes the vulnerability of Kenya's food system to climate shocks. 

Agricultural economists warn that the price pressure will extend well beyond staple crops.

"When food production fails in key growing areas, the effects ripple through urban markets within weeks," said Ian Njoroge, an independent economist.

"We're looking at a difficult first quarter for all Kenyan consumers, not just those in food-insecure regions. The slight drop in maize flour prices this November is a temporary blip, not a trend. The underlying pressures from climate and supply chains point to more pain ahead."