From hustlers to highways: Experts, citizens question Ruto's bold vision

You might assume that, as Head of State with access to billions even beyond the allocated budget, President William Ruto’s life is almost a fairy tale.

Yet, the past weeks have been tumultuous for him as he seized every opportunity to advocate for his vision of transforming Kenya’s development focus from a hustler-centred approach to a “Singapore” model.

As Kenyans grapple with understanding this Sh5 trillion dream, opposition leaders have been quick to criticize him. On Monday, at the Kimalel Goat Auction, he suggested that the bottom-up economic transformation model and the Singapore vision are essentially one and the same. He might be right, since both involve a change in altitude—figuratively and literally.

“I have said it before: ‘Bottom up’ is not just a slogan, but a plan to lift Kenya to first-world status,” said President Ruto. “Read the manifesto; everything we are implementing was part of it.”

The Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), which propelled President Ruto to office in 2022, focuses on empowering the lower echelon, the hustler, to grow the economy.

The journey, however, has not been smooth. Some policies his administration introduced have been controversial and at times, at odds with the model. Enhancing National Social Security Fund (NSSF) contributions, introducing the Affordable Housing levy at 1.5 per cent of gross pay, and imposing the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) at 2.75 per cent are among the new taxes and levies Kenyans faced since he assumed office.

On the other hand, the government launched the Financial Inclusion Fund, popularly known as the Hustler Fund, to provide ‘hustlers’ with low-interest loans and help repair bad credit that has previously denied them access to mainstream financial institutions.

In line with the BETA agenda, the government has also made fertilizer more available and affordable for farmers.

However, during his State of the Nation address this year, President Ruto unveiled the “Singapore dream”, an economic strategy aimed at transforming Kenya into a Singapore-like economy through heavy investment in infrastructure through the National Infrastructure Fund (NIF).

The plan includes constructing highways, dams, power plants and transmission lines, which are expected to drive economic growth. These projects will be financed off the budget, with proceeds from the privatisation of state agencies and divestiture of government investments providing seed funding for the fund.

The NIF will then seek additional financing from development partners and the private sector globally, with a focus on public-private partnerships (PPPs) for commercially viable projects such as toll roads. Revenue from these projects will be shared between the fund and the investors.

This announcement has left many Kenyans puzzled, while opposition leaders see it as fresh ammunition to criticise the President.

“When you change gears, tell people. Do not just ambush them and leave them shocked. Yesterday, we were talking about hustlers, the people at the bottom; now we are talking about the grass tops, not the grassroots,” says Peter Kagwanja, CEO of the Africa Policy Institute.

Kagwanja argues that discussions around the National Infrastructure Fund and the Sovereign Wealth Fund are high-level economic debates that largely exclude the common citizen. “You need to be a financial economist to understand,” he adds.

He argues that with the two funds now at the centre of the country’s economic development model, the shift is clearly top-down, rather than bottom-up. The problem with a top-down approach, he says, is that it does not align with Kenya’s economic structure.

“This is because Kenya’s economy is driven by consumption,” he explains.“Nobody is talking about production. Safaricom and a few large corporations are our main sources of tax revenue, which basically sustains consumerism. This is what keeps the economy lazy. Where is mwananchi in terms of production?”

Kagwanja notes that Singapore, along with China and Japan, countries often cited by the President, are production-based economies, unlike Kenya.“We are determined to walk, but on our heads,” he says. 

His views are echoed by Prof Alfred Omenya, a policy and governance expert, who likens Kenya’s Singapore dream to rebadging a three-wheeler with a Mercedes logo.

“So far, it looks like Kenya is borrowing the ‘Singapore’ badge without proper due diligence on how the Asian tiger grew,” Omenya says. “Singapore got to where it is not because of infrastructure, but through good governance. The current trend here is to put the most incompetent people from your community in charge. And you cannot even run a chicken farm like that.”

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and former chair of the National Assembly Budget and Appropriations Committee, views this shift not only as a ploy to win votes in the 2027 general election, but also as an indirect acknowledgment that the government is struggling to grow the economy.

Nyoro says the Singapore strategy is just another grandiose idea, designed to make Kenyans dream of going to the moon while blurring the reality of the challenges they face.