How KQ's fortunes sank, and a pilot's rescue plan

Last November, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa), a regional economic bloc comprising 21 African countries, fined Kenya Airways (KQ) for violating passenger rights by mistreating and failing to provide sufficient assistance during flight disruptions.

What stung players in Kenya’s aviation industry is that KQ was fined alongside Zambia Airways, a small, nondescript airline with only two aircraft to its name. It was a ringing slap that underlined the chaos bubbling within the broke but once highly respected airline.

KQ, once hailed as “The Pride of Africa,” finds itself at a crossroads that serves as a cautionary tale in corporate strategy.

In the late 2010s, as financial struggles mounted, KQ made the controversial decision to divest from its long-range fleet, including the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners and 777-300ERs, crucial assets for its profitable intercontinental routes, particularly to North America. 

The magnitude of this lost opportunity is underscored by tourism data.

The Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife reveals that North America has long been a key source of visitors to Kenya.

In 2023, over 300,000 travelers from the United States and Canada visited, making them the second largest group after Uganda. Back in 2018, pre-pandemic numbers show the US alone exceeding 200,000 arrivals.

By relinquishing its long-haul aircraft, KQ effectively opened the door for competitors like Emirates, Qatar Airways, KLM, and emerging players such as Delta Airlines to seize this valuable traffic.

Innovative mobility

In its haste to abandon a cornerstone of its business, international passenger aviation, Kenya Airways ventured into bold but costly projects in innovative mobility. Through its subsidiary, Fahari Aviation, KQ has heavily invested in drone technologies and the exploration of air taxis (eVTOLs), announcing plans, in 2022, to acquire 40 flying taxis from a Brazilian firm at an estimated cost of Sh13 billion! Each taxi would reportedly cost around Sh 327 million.

The Kenya Airline Pilots Associations, led by executive council member Mwenda Mabura, has been very vocal about KQ matters.

Captain Mabura, an aeronautical engineer and South Africa-trained pilot with over 8,000 flying hours, has served as a pilots’ representative and consistently championed KQ reforms and restructuring. He believes that while the woes at Kenya Airways are self-inflicted, the struggling airline can be rescued. 

“In 2006, passenger numbers at Kenya Airways stood at 2.6 million per annum compared to Ethiopian Airlines at 2.1 million. In just 20 years, the Ethiopian flag carrier’s passenger numbers have reached a staggering 17.1 million, against KQ’s 3.6 million. Our competitors leapt into the sky while we idled and twiddled thumbs on the tarmac,” says Captain Mabura. 

Mabura is convinced that the airline has stagnated due to poor leadership, poor decision-making and conflict of interest and has crafted a radical rescue blueprint that aviation experts describe as “the most comprehensive turnaround strategy ever presented” for the national carrier.

“An airline generates revenue by ferrying passengers and cargo. How do shareholders expect KQ to make profits when it lacks cargo handling capacity? How do you generate revenue from passengers when 11 of your long-haul aircraft are grounded?” he poses. 

His detailed rescue plan proposes a triple-pronged strategy involving transformative American aviation partnerships, an innovative diaspora funding model aligned with Trump-era policy, and leveraging Kenya’s tremendous tourism potential. 

At the heart of his “Phoenix Plan” is diversifying revenue streams at KQ by transforming the national carrier from a basic airline to an aviation industrial hub through partnerships with US industry giants.

He proposes a groundbreaking deal with Boeing for “a flight training centre that includes simulators for the latest planes - the 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner, and 777X-,a parallel partnership with General Electric to establish an engine repair, overhaul and testing centre to serve the Africa region and part of the Middle East.

“These centres will save KQ hundreds of millions on maintenance expenditure, create high-quality jobs, generate revenues, and earn foreign exchange,” Captain Mabura explains.

He further envisions “a huge KQ cargo centre that can also be used by the United Nations agencies and foreign missions” to capitalise on Nairobi’s immense diplomatic status.

The plan’s most innovative financial engine, however, is a diaspora bond structure designed to be commercially rewarding while enhancing international diplomacy. He proposes the formation of consortium accounts by Kenyan-American diaspora groups to raise funds that can be paid “directly to the US manufacturer account in dollars” for Boeing and GE equipment.

In his view, it is not beyond the capacity of the Kenyan diaspora, whose remittances back home in 2024 stood at USD5 billion, to raise the USD292 – 338 million for a Boeing 787. 

Incentivize investment

This direct payment would excite President Trump’s MAGA ‘Buy American’ agenda, he notes, adding that the US leader is a known aviation junkie. In return, KQ would make lease payments in shillings to the local consortium account for dividend distribution. To incentivize investment, he suggests government tax breaks on dividends and a lease-to-purchase agreement at the end of the contract. 

“Ownership of the planes is retained by the diaspora consortium, which gives them confidence to invest more. Besides, our diaspora are frequent users of KQ. This is how to retain our lost diaspora passengers. If they invest, they will fly KQ,” he argues. 

The final pillar calls on KQ to leverage Kenya’s inherent advantages as a popular tourist destination. While rivals like Ethiopian Airlines are primarily hubs, Mabura argues that Kenya is both a hub and a destination, meaning it should attract and service more passengers.

He points to the global boom in wellness tourism driven by good weather, diverse landscapes, and food, people and culture, as an opportunity to market and sell the full Kenyan experience.

This, he argues, is only possible if KQ constitutes a competent board. As an aviation company based in an agricultural and tourist nation, the airline should have a management board comprising a technical expert versed in aviation, and stakeholders drawn from the tourism and horticultural sectors. Currently, the KQ board lacks a chairman or members other than those seconded by the government shareholders.

“Why would an airline have a management board without an experienced pilot or aviation expert? Why aren’t the horticulture, tourism or meat export sectors represented, yet they are the goose that lays the golden egg for KQ? This is why our flowers meant for export end up rotting during the Valentine’s season, passenger rights are violated, and flawed decisions are routinely implemented,” says Mabura. 

He cites cutting KQ from the lucrative North American market, which has the highest billionaire concentration in the world and is the leading international tourist source for Kenya, investing in a US$377 million flying air taxi venture, questionable aircraft lease agreements, and partnering with an ailing South African airline as decisions that should never have seen the light of day had a competent board been in place. 

“Delta Airlines recently announced that they are buying the Boeing 787 and using engines from General Electric, just as I have proposed in my plan. Note that they make profits and pay employee bonuses, yet KQ has grounded the same 787 and makes losses to the extent that paying staff salaries is becoming a challenge,” he says. 

Like other local aviation players, Mabura also questions the wisdom behind placing expatriates at the helm of Kenya Airways. 

“The chief executive officer at Ethiopian Airlines joined the company as an associate engineer. Its current managing director for cargo and logistics joined the airline as a marketing clerk. These ‘junior employees’ have risen in the ranks to steer an airline that boasts 17 million passenger numbers. Why can’t KQ grow its own talent instead of relying on foreigners?” he poses. 

In his view, the appointment of foreign nationals also contravenes Kenyan law. 

“The Class D Work Permit is issued to foreign nationals with skills and qualifications that are not available in Kenya.  I am not convinced that this has been the case at KQ. The permit also requires the organization to name suitably qualified Kenyan nationals to understudy the foreign experts. This has not been the case,” says Mabura. 

Mabura’s employment at KQ hangs in the balance for highlighting “governance failures” and “misleading annual profit reports.”