Trump tariff threat casts long shadow over Kenya-Iran trade
Business
By
Brian Ngugi
| Jan 17, 2026
A threat by US President Donald Trump to impose a 25 per cent tariff on any nation trading with Iran has thrown Kenya’s strategic push into the Middle East into disarray, forcing Nairobi to choose between a resurgent tea market and vital access to American consumers.
The warning, posted by Trump on his Truth Social platform on Monday, targets countries conducting business with the Islamic Republic, calling the order “final and conclusive.”
While the White House has yet to provide a legal framework for the move, the declaration arrives at a diplomatically sensitive moment for Kenya. Two months ago, a high-level Kenyan delegation concluded a landmark visit to Tehran. Led by the Agriculture Principal Secretary Dr Paul Kipronoh Ronoh and the Tea Board of Kenya Chief Executive Willy Mutai, the mission aimed to revitalise a historic trade relationship and extend cooperation into technology and agriculture.
“The timing could not be more delicate,” said a senior Kenyan government official involved in the trade talks, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“We are in the process of reactivating a major export market. This threat introduces a layer of risk that neither traders nor policymakers can ignore.” For Nairobi, the economic choices are tough. The United States remains a critical trade and security partner.
READ MORE
Kenya's 'night runner': How a rural ritual with links to witchcraft became an urban staple
Museveni: still seeking power after 40 years of rule
Phasing out 8-4-4: KCSE exams enter final stretch
Concern over growing inequality as 47,798 candidates score E
Great Wall tenants accuse management of alleged negligence
Parents worry as 8-4-4 learners face neglect amid CBE transition
State faces new IMF test as loan talks resume
Let's prioritise quality learning this year
Saudi Arabia sets executions record in 2025, putting 356 people to death
Under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—which the US House of Representatives recently voted to extend through 2028—Kenya enjoys duty-free access for thousands of products.
This preferential window is the lifeblood of Kenya’s apparel sector, which supports over 66,000 direct jobs. A blanket 25 per cent tariff on all exports to the US would effectively neutralise these benefits. Conversely, Iran represents one of Kenya’s fastest-growing frontier markets.
Kenyan exports to Tehran, primarily high-quality black tea, surged to Sh6.8 billion in 2023—a more than fourfold increase over five years. With a population of 85 million and the second-largest economy in the Middle East, Iran is viewed by Nairobi as a premium alternative to traditional European markets.
“For our tea farmers, this is a market we are keen to solidify,” said a private sector source who attended the Tehran talks.
Beyond commodities, Kenyan officials recently toured the Iran House of Technology and Innovation to explore tech transfers aimed at boosting agricultural productivity.
Trump’s use of aggressive tariff policy as a tool of “America First” diplomacy is not new, but the scope of this latest threat has caught emerging markets off guard.
Analysts note that Iran has been actively cultivating ties across Africa to offset Western isolation, focusing on food staples and grains—sectors where Kenya has a competitive advantage.
The Kenyan government now finds itself walking a geopolitical tightrope. While Washington frames its trade preferences as a tool to contain “malign actors,” Nairobi views its trade decisions as a matter of economic sovereignty. “Our instructions are to continue implementing the agreed roadmap with Iran, but with heightened awareness,” the state official added.