Africa trade gap persists despite AfCFTA push to rev up markets

Africa’s market of more than 1.4 billion people holds enormous economic potential, yet trade within the continent remains relatively low despite the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Intra-African trade accounts for an estimated 15 to 18 per cent of the total African commerce, significantly below levels recorded in regions such as Europe, where internal trade exceeds 60 per cent.

The disparity has renewed debate over what continues to constrain economic integration across the continent.

 Development experts say the challenge extends beyond tariffs and customs procedures to deeper structural weaknesses in connectivity between African economies.

“The biggest obstacle is not geography; it is fragmentation,” said Dr Zeynu Ummer, Director of the UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa.

“We have not yet fully connected our production systems, value chains, infrastructure, digital platforms and investment ecosystems across borders.”

Many African countries continue to trade more with markets outside the continent than with neighbouring States, a pattern linked to historical trade structures, infrastructure deficits and limited industrial integration.

The effects are most visible at border crossings, where delays, documentation requirements and transport bottlenecks increase the cost of moving goods across countries.

For cross-border traders, these inefficiencies translate directly into reduced earnings and unpredictable business conditions.

“Sometimes you spend a whole day clearing one border,” said the President of the Zambia Cross Border Traders Association, Goodson Mbewe. “By the time goods arrive, costs have already gone up.”

“We are supposed to be trading under one continental market, but on the ground it still feels like separate countries with different systems and delays,” he added.

He notes that the impact extends beyond established traders, affecting small-scale operators who rely on fast-moving goods, including many women traders who dominate informal cross-border commerce in Southern Africa, as well as young entrepreneurs attempting to enter regional supply chains in agriculture and logistics.

The AfCFTA, launched to create a single continental market for goods and services, seeks to reduce tariffs and harmonise trade rules.

However, implementation has been uneven across member States, with infrastructure gaps and logistical constraints continuing to slow progress.

Trade experts note that transport and logistics costs remain among the highest globally in parts of Africa, limiting competitiveness and slowing the growth of regional value chains.

Despite these challenges, projections suggest significant gains if reforms are implemented. United Nations estimates indicate that full implementation of AfCFTA could raise Africa’s income by up to $450 billion (Sh52 trillion) by 2035.

Attention is increasingly shifting to border regions, which policymakers say could become important nodes of regional trade if long-standing bottlenecks are addressed.

Border communities, traditionally viewed as informal economic zones, are now being reconsidered as potential centres of investment and value chain development.

Dr Ummar said unlocking these areas would be critical to the success of the agreement, noting that stronger cross-border systems are essential for inclusive growth.

According to the UN, Africa’s population is projected to reach about 2.5 billion by 2050, increasing pressure on governments to expand economic opportunities and strengthen industrial capacity. However, manufacturing remains a relatively small contributor to output in many countries, limiting job creation and export diversification.

Economists say the pace of AfCFTA implementation will determine whether Africa can fully leverage its growing consumer base and production potential.

While the continent’s economic promise is widely recognised, analysts caution that turning that potential into higher levels of intra-African trade will depend on faster progress in infrastructure development, regulatory coordination and cross-border efficiency.