Why civil society wants Kenya's Sh13 trillion debt discussed at dinner tables

If Kenya’s Sh13.0 trillion public debt was to be divided equally among the population – from newborns to the elderly – then every person would be handed a bill of Sh240,740. If the same debt was divided equally among the working population of 21.6 million, then the bill would jump 2.5 times to Sh601,851.

And if the debt is divided among the formal workforce, since they are the ones easily targeted by the government when deploying new taxes, the bill shoots further to Sh3.9 million per head.

As stark as these figures are, a major issue that bothers civil societies in the public debt space, is how to make the common person – the so-called mama mboga or that grandfather in the village – grasp the severity of the hole the country is in.

To an extent, they say, the government has not been as transparent as it should, to break down what it actually means for the country to have a Sh13.0 trillion debt. For example, they say, no one really knows when the government flies out to ask for funds.

The news always come as a shock, despite the existence of a debt management strategy as published by the National Treasury. But the understanding of the severity of debt,  says Evelyn Kibuchi, an advocate in the health space championing TB funding, should start from the household level.

“For example, do your children or spouse know that you have a loan? So, you are not accountable in your household but you expect the government to be?” she poses.

She goes on: “Probably, you are not open to your children or spouse because they would not approve what you intend to do with the money.

”Kibuchi says for Kenyans to understand how debt has affected their everyday lives, this knowledge should be disseminated at the household level throwing out the assumption that children are too young or pre-occupied with school work that they cannot learn about loans.“

The government is not transparent because they know we will not approve. We shall go to the streets. So, they do just like you, hide it from us when they are going for it,” she says.

Kibuchi was among several civil society organisations gathered by Africa Healthcare Foundation (AHF) to discuss how government spending on debt service is denying other social sectors such as health and education the needed funding. From the breakdown at the event held this month, it was deduced that the government spends Sh70 of every Sh100 it collects as revenue to pay debt. As such, just Sh30, or 30 per cent of revenue, is available for all other expenditures among them health, education, development and recurrent and pension.

Presidential hopeful and Safina Party leader Jimi Wanjigi, however, argues this percentage is as high as 81, saying revenue streams such as appropriation in aid (AiA) should not be misconstrued as part of the taxman’s collections.

Nelson Otuoma, Executive Director Network Empowerment of People Living with HIV in Kenya (Nephak) relates this debt challenge to sporadic stock outs of antiretroviral (ARVs) in the country. “When you see a woman walking a long distance to get medicine, and they miss it because of a stock out, it is because the government spends 70 per cent of revenue to service debt,” he says.

He points out that the situation is dire today, due to shrinking donor support especially from the United States, which has left patients stranded amid the rollout of a new injectable HIV prevention medicine, Lenacapavir. The twice a year jab is said to be a game changer in adherence, compared to previous daily tablets.

“But the condition is for you to be eligible, you have to be tested. And as we know, some facilities and counties have no testing kits or reagents,” he says, adding that such consumables were left to the government to take charge when donors started withdrawing.

Otuoma says this is the reason why items such as condoms are no longer offered for free in facilities.

"You have to buy them in the supermarkets,” he says.

Wanjigi, during an interview, documented how the debt service to revenue ratio has oscillated from 30 per cent, when former President Daniel Moi left office to 18 per cent during President Mwai Kibaki's tenure, before jumping to 65 per cent during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s time and now at 81 per cent under President William Ruto.

“The biggest burden on our lives is a debt that does not seem to go away. It just keeps increasing even when we are paying it,” he says. "The biggest burden of that is on how much of our revenue is being used to pay debt.”

In the 2026/27 budget, the government has earmarkedSh2.3 trillion, from the Sh4.8 trillion budget, on debt service. This amount will go to both interest payment and redemption. During this period, the government has targeted Sh3.6 trillion as revenue with the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) expected to collectSh3 trillion.

Away from this, the government will also be borrowing in excess of Sh1 trillion from the domestic market and Sh116 billion externally to fill the revenue hole. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, during the Finance Bill 2026 discussions, documented how squeezed the exchequer is.

He admitted that a lot of money is being spent on debt service and that the government cannot afford to go for more debt.

“But I must point out that our expenditure has become inflexible,” he said.

He went on to list that of the Sh4.8 trillion budget,Sh1.5 trillion will go to debt service, Sh1 trillion to salaries, close to Sh500 billion to counties, Sh18 billion for primary healthcare funding, subsidised fertiliser will gobble a similar amount, and Sh4 billion for emergency and chronic illness.

“You look at all these and we realistically do not have that leverage in terms of cutting our expenditures. The only avenue is revenue, therefore, KRA must perform,” he said.