Historic El Nio threat raises fresh risks for Kenya's economy and food security

Kenya is staring down the barrel of its most powerful El Nino in more than four decades, with forecasters and economists warning of a potential catastrophe that threatens to overwhelm a cash-strapped government already grappling with slowing growth, rising inflation and depleted fiscal buffers.

The anticipated El Nino could tip Kenya's strained economy into deeper crisis, the analysts warn, as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – a key measure of the phenomenon's intensity – plunged to -29.1 in July, its lowest level since February 1983, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

"The last time the SOI reached such a low level was during the 1982 to 1983 El Nino, which is widely regarded as one of the strongest and most destructive events on record," the newly published Oxford Economics Africa report noted.

The US Climate Prediction Centre now estimates an 81 per cent probability of a "very strong" El Nino between October and December "that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950."

For Kenya, the phenomenon typically brings heavy rainfall and flooding during the October-to-December short rains season. The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of an 81 per cent chance of a very strong event, with a 97 per cent probability that conditions will persist into early 2027.

"A severe El Nino could have devastating effects across Africa, bringing heat and drought to some areas and extreme flooding to others," the Oxford Economics Africa report warns. "These risks come at a time of elevated global energy and fertiliser prices, which will add further pressure to the continent's agricultural sector."

"During the 2023-2024 El Nino-driven drought, maize production in several countries fell by more than 50 per cent from the previous year, prompting multiple governments to declare national disasters."

Despite recent rains, the report says, "El Nino conditions are likely to weigh on agricultural growth, water supply and power generation across much of the continent, weakening near-term economic growth prospects."

Torrential flooding that results from El Nino threatens to drown subsistence crops and wash away rural livelihoods just as families are already battling surging food prices and transport costs.

With public debt repayments consuming nearly half of government revenue and the fiscal deficit standing at 6.1 per cent, the embattled Government is seen as having little fiscal room for the subsidies, emergency food aid, or disaster relief that typically cushion such shocks.

That means millions of smallholder farmers and urban families living in flood-prone informal settlements could be left to weather the worst of the storm on their own, raising the spectre of widespread hunger, displacement, and a humanitarian crisis at a moment when the economy can least afford it, analysts warn.

The government has moved to bolster readiness.

In late June, President William Ruto's cabinet appointed Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to lead an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Nino Preparedness and Response.

The committee has been directed to activate a National El Nino Contingency Plan including flood mitigation, evacuation and shelter arrangements, drainage clearance, and reinforcement of vulnerable roads and bridges. A Sh15 billion contingency fund has been established for mitigation and rapid response.

"We assure the country that there is no need to panic," Kindiki said in July.

Yet officials and analysts have acknowledged significant vulnerabilities.

Kenya Meteorological Department director David Gikungu cautioned that El Nino's impact depends heavily on factors such as drainage systems, settlement patterns, land degradation, infrastructure and disaster preparedness. In informal settlements and floodplain communities, even moderate rainfall can become disastrous.

The warning comes after devastating floods earlier this year that submerged parts of Nairobi, killed dozens, and sparked widespread criticism over the country's disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience.

The El Nino threat comes at a precarious moment for many Kenyans already squeezed by the cost of living and a slowing economy.

GDP growth slowed to 4.6 per cent in 2025 and is projected at just 4.5 per cent in 2026. Inflation has been re-emerging, driven largely by higher global oil prices that have pushed up transport and production costs. Headline inflation reached 6.7 per cent in May, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, a two-year high.

It also comes at a time public debt has climbed to about 70 per cent of GDP, with debt servicing consuming close to half of government revenues.

"Higher import bills are expected to widen the current account deficit and could put pressure on the Kenyan shilling if global conditions deteriorate," the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warned in its latest regional outlook.

The agricultural sector, which employs the majority of Kenyans and is critical to food security, faces a double blow.

Prolonged drought has already devastated the current maize season, with yields dropping to as low as two bags per acre from more than 30 under normal conditions.

Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Rono warned that about 10 per cent of farmers in the South Rift, 30 per cent in the North Rift, and 20 per cent of seed maize farmers have been affected by crop failure.

The government had projected a harvest of about 80 million bags of maize this year, but those hopes have been dashed. Now, the anticipated El Nino rains threaten to bring flooding, crop damage and post-harvest losses just as farmers are struggling to recover.

Environment Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa has urged farmers to plant short-season crops to cushion the country against food shortages. But with maize production already expected to decline significantly, the margin for error is slim.

The FAO and WFP have identified Kenya among 22 countries facing a high risk of climate-related shocks linked to El Nino between late 2026 and early 2027. "An El Nino is forming, and millions of food-insecure people are in its path," the agencies warned.

The International Rescue Committee estimates Kenya faces an 80-82 per cent chance of El Nino persisting through 2026, with dry conditions this summer giving way to a high risk of flooding and landslides. "We're watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs," said Bob Kitchen, IRC Vice President for Emergencies.

The last major El Nino in 2023-2024 triggered crop losses of over Sh16 billion in Kenya, destroying around 84,000 acres of crops on 78,000 farms. This time, forecasters say, could be worse.

With the October-to-December rainy season fast approaching, Kenya finds itself in a precarious position, analysts say.

The government has activated response mechanisms, but the scale of the threat, a potential El Nino rivaling 1982, may test the limits of the country's disaster preparedness infrastructure.

"Higher food import bills would also worsen trade balances and increase pressure on currencies in net-importing economies," the Oxford Economics Africa report says. "At the same time, governments could face rising demands for subsidies and disaster relief when fiscal space is already constrained. Given the importance of subsistence farming across Africa, a severe El Nino would pose serious risks to livelihoods and could have major humanitarian consequences."