Kenya's nuclear power plan faces significant cost hurdles

The pristine white beaches, turquoise waters, and mangrove forests along the Kilifi coastline make it one of Kenya's most popular tourist destinations.

The local economy thrives on visitors who come to see turtles, coral reefs, and bird species.

However, skepticism looms large here regarding government plans. The region's first nuclear power plant is slated for construction within a conservation area, sparking considerable resistance, especially in the small fishing village of Uyombo.

"We lack nuclear infrastructure, have an unstable power grid, and no regulatory framework for handling nuclear waste or emergencies," said environmental activist Anthony Kingi in an interview with The Standard.

The 54-year-old is one of the elders in Uyombo. Two years ago, he made opposing Kenya's first nuclear power plant his primary focus.

"We receive no information at all. The entire process is shrouded in secrecy and lacks transparency," he pointed out.

Alongside other local organisations and businesses, Kingi launched a petition to halt the plant's construction.

In Nairobi, there is a different sentiment. "Kilifi is the best location," insists Basset Buyukah, director of publicity and advocacy at the Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (Nupea). "There's no question that we will build a nuclear power plant."

Many other African countries are also turning to nuclear power, and Kenya cannot afford to lag behind, he added.

Despite a global trend of more nuclear power plants being decommissioned than being newly built, an increasing number of African states is now announcing plans to venture into nuclear energy production.

Currently, the continent's only nuclear power plant is in South Africa.

According to the new World Nuclear Industry Report, a total of 10 African countries have concrete plans for nuclear power plants.

Representatives from Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger even attended Russia's Atomexpo for the first time in March this year.

Sixteen countries in total have signed cooperation agreements with Russia's state corporation Rosatom, for both energy production and research purposes.

Ghana recently announced an agreement with Nuscale Power at the US-Africa Nuclear Conference in August to construct a small modular reactor (SMR).

These mini nuclear reactors promise increased safety and reduced radioactive waste, which may be more manageable in the often smaller power grids of many African nations.

"We can deploy a small modular reactor to bridge the energy gap and then plan for larger reactors in the long term," said Yusuf Aminu Ahmed, head of Nigeria's Atomic Energy Commission, recently. "I believe this could be a solution for the African continent."

However, no SMR pilot projects are operational worldwide yet. While Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda await mini-reactors, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Tanzania, and others plan directly with conventional facilities. Kenya keeps both options open.

"It's a hype. Many agreements were signed years ago, and not much has happened since," noted Mycles Schneider, lead author of the annual World Nuclear Industry Reports.

Egypt, Africa's largest economy, is the only country to have followed through with its announcements so far, with Russia's Rosatom currently constructing a 4.8 gigawatt nuclear power plant set to operate by 2030.

The driving force behind this newfound affinity for nuclear power lies in Africa's rapidly growing population and expanding middle class, leading to increased electricity demand.

"In countries like Kenya, more and more people are getting access to electricity. Many consume very little because they do not own appliances such as refrigerators and electric ovens. But that will change quickly," explained Martin Kitetu, an expert from the pan-African energy consulting agency EED Advisory.

Kenya is among the countries with the fastest-growing electricity demand. The growing population necessitates more electricity.

Just 20 years ago, only 10 per cent of Kenyans were connected to the electricity grid; today, it is 75 per cent. Demand is increasing by nearly five per cent annually.
According to the International Energy Agency, Kenya could consume more electricity than it produces by 2027.

The current system is stretched thin: "Kenya urgently needs more stable and flexible energy generation," said Kitetu.

According to government plans, this stable and flexible energy will come from a nuclear power plant.

Nupea intends to start construction, whether SMR or conventional, between 2027 and 2029, with operations expected by 2034 at the latest.
Cost is approximately Sh500 billion.

"If Kenya wants to industrialise, we need more baseload power plants. Coal and gas are too dirty, water unreliable in times of climate change, and geothermal power not flexible enough," explained Nupea's Buyukah.

With nearly 90 per cent of its electricity generation from renewable sources, Kenya is a global leader - mainly thanks to his geothermal reserves, from which the country only utilises 10 per cent of its potential 10,000 megawatts.

The rest comes from hydro, wind, solar and some oil and gas.

"That said, the network is in a dilapidated state," warned Musa Wafula, a former Kenya Power employee now working for one of the largest US energy providers.

"The network's capacity is only three gigawatts, extremely small compared to, for example, Germany's 232-gigawatt capacity, known as one of the world's most stable. While nationwide blackouts lasting several hours are not uncommon in Kenya."

In early September, there were two power outages within one week, paralysing nearly the entire country for several hours. According to the Ministry of Energy, disruptions occurred on multiple transmission lines.

Such occurrences frequently lead to major problems due to the majority of the system lacking backup lines. During a blackout the daily operations of hospitals, airports, and factories rely on thousands of megawatts of diesel generators.

Additionally, there were three nationwide blackouts last year, with even more regional ones.

"Here, we experience at least three to four power outages daily," reported a hotelier from Watamu, a coastal town in the region where Kenya's first nuclear power plant is planned. Until today, there has been no official confirmation of the government's plans, we learned about it rather incidentally."

Local entrepreneurs fear for their businesses and distrust the government. Hence, they prefer to remain anonymous.

"Kenya faces significant corruption issues," said a hotelier of German descent. This is a well-documented fact; government funds frequently disappear, and announced projects remain unfinished due to sudden funding shortages.
Ranked 126th out of 180 countries on the Transparency International Corruption Index, Kenya has a long way to go.

The entrepreneur expressed no inherent opposition to nuclear power, "but here, standards differ, as evidenced by the poor state of the power grid," he added.

In his view, an atomic power plant is not the best idea, especially concerning radioactive waste management. Kenyan entrepreneurs and energy experts share similar concerns.

"A stable grid is essential for a safe nuclear power plant," asserted German nuclear expert Christoph Pistner from the Öko Institute.

A nuclear power plant requires constant cooling; otherwise, a worst-case scenario of a meltdown could have catastrophic consequences for humans and the environment.

"Typically, the cooling systems rely on the external grid," Pistner explained. This necessitates a reliable power supply. "Without it, there's an additional risk factor."

Even Buyukah does not deny the poor state of the power grid. "However, we're optimistic that our grid will be ready when the nuclear power plant begins operations," he assured.
Naturally, a SMR would be much better suited for the Kenyan grid, Buyukah acknowledged. Whereas a conventional nuclear power plant typically starts at a capacity of 1000 megawatts, SMR concepts are designed for 300 to 600 megawatts.

But start-ups like the German-Canadian DualFluid, planning to build their first experimental reactor in Rwanda, face financial difficulties amidst the challenging economic situation.
Nuclear energy ensures more flexible energy generation, Kitetu emphasised. Another option is a significantly stronger international network connected to surrounding East African states, similar to Europe's successful interconnective network.

However, power connections to neighbouring countries like Tanzania, Uganda, or Ethiopia are still in their infancy.

Critics argue that the nuclear hype in many African countries is politically driven, especially with Russia and the USA actively promoting nuclear power in African nations.
Depending on calculations, nuclear power in general can still be slightly cheaper than renewable energy combined with storage.

"Looking at the additional infrastructure investments in many African countries, the electricity demand can be met much more economically by expanding decentralised renewables like wind and solar with storage," Pistner argued.

Simultaneously building a nuclear power plant and strengthening the power grid entails doubling the financial requirements.

Buyukah remains steadfast: Nuclear energy is the cheapest and greenest option to meet a portion of the growing electricity demand.

Despite this, geothermal energy will remain central to Kenya's energy system.

How this multi-billion-dollar nuclear power plant project will be financed in a heavily indebted country is yet to be determined.

According to Nupea, a deal with China, South Korea, or the USA could be an option.

Similarly, Egypt followed suit: Russia advanced $25 billion to the North African economy, covering approximately 85 per cent of the total costs. Egypt will repay the loan by selling nuclear power to Russia over the next 22 years, including interest.